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AI Market Consensus — August 22, 2026
Market regime: bull · Positioning: hold
Maintaining a Bullish regime with a HOLD: the advance is broad and earnings-backed but cyclically and secularly stretched, with three separate breadth lenses failing to confirm the SP-500's higher high just as the weakest seasonal month begins.
Key evidence
Trend is unambiguous and broad — the Trend Edge Universe plus large-, mid- and small-cap tiers all sit above four rising weekly averages, mid-caps up 33% over twelve months and small-caps at new highs — but nothing is fresh: 40-week averages have gone untouched about 70 weeks and price is near 50% above its 200-week average.
One corroborated non-confirmation theme, not three votes: the Advance-Decline Line, the 52-Week Highs to Lows Ratio (just 1.5% and flat) and the Gold Death Cross spread (+7.5%, mid-range) all failed to confirm the index's higher high about 12 weeks ago, with leadership rotating defensively toward healthcare while the entire semiconductor and electronic-components complex sits deepest in new-low territory.
Off-price layers argue against an imminent top: estimate revisions are net positive at +12.9 with reported EPS growth breadth at the 80th percentile of its own history on 86.7% reported, short-interest accumulation breadth at 43.5% marks a fresh broad covering hook off crowded books, and insiders show no froth (scheduled selling only 64th percentile and cooling).
The same off-price layers expose where the cycle is narrow: small-cap estimate revisions are flat at +0.2 with the weakest growth breadth (58.6%), small-cap institutional median ownership is at a record low, and large-cap concentration has risen 14 consecutive quarters — participation is thinning beneath a broad-looking price tape.
Timing offers no cushion: volatility is priced for continued calm with a thin variance premium, retail sentiment is mid-range with no contrarian extreme, and seasonality hands off from a spent August into the weakest month of the rising-trend calendar before October–December turn supportive.
What this means: Hold existing longs and stop chasing — the extended semiconductor, industrial and momentum leadership is already correcting, so new capital belongs only in the freshly turned or freshly cheap groups: healthcare (rising estimates against price-to-sales at just the 19th percentile of its own history), energy internals, insurance brokers and consumer cyclicals. Treat a September stall or pullback toward the 10-week averages as the accumulation window for the historically strong November–December stretch, and do not chase small caps, whose new price highs lack both institutional ownership and estimate-revision support.
AI-generated market analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Weekly Movers — Selects that moved on volume · week ending Aug 21, 2026