UMBF — UMB Financial Corporation

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates UMBF Bullish with a Setup Score of 75, net conviction 45, actionability 124. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score75
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction45
Actionability124 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About UMB Financial Corporation

UMB Financial Corporation operates as a bank holding company that provides banking services and asset servicing in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Banking, Institutional Banking, and Personal Banking. The Commercial Banking segment provides commercial loans and credit cards; commercial real estate financing; letters of credit; loan syndication, and consultative services; various busin… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$130.30
Market Cap$9.90B
Float73.0M
Shares Outstanding76.0M
P/E (Forward)9.62
P/E (TTM)10.85
Price/Sales (TTM)3.52
vs. Analyst Target+26.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin33.50%
Operating Margin (TTM)51.06%
Revenue (TTM)$2.81B
Earnings Growth (YoY)26.20%
Dividend Rate2.0%
Analyst Target Price$164.13 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.30B $287M $1.09B $402M
2021 $1.24B $353M $1.18B $485M
2022 $1.58B $432M $1.32B $586M
2023 $2.24B $350M $1.28B $480M
2024 $2.64B $441M $1.41B $594M
2025 $4.44B $702M $2.42B $1.06B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.49B $188M
Dec 2025 $1.09B $215M
Mar 2026 $867M $261M
Jun 2026 $778M N/A

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.3%
Institutional Ownership97.7%
Short Float4.7%
% of All Funds Holding5.46%
Number of Funds Holding480

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$140.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$130.93Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$120.17Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$98.97Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$130.37Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$119.54Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$104.72Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$141.00 resistance 1.13x 0 months ago
$128.00 support 1.35x 3 months ago
$113.00 support 1.28x 5 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.10% 0.01% 50.00% 7.00% -9.85%
1 Day 0.08% 0.30% 55.74% 10.68% -10.31%
1 Week 0.07% 0.05% 50.82% 17.83% -14.43%
2 Weeks 0.65% 0.54% 54.10% 20.74% -14.04%
1 Month 0.60% 0.70% 54.55% 21.95% -18.76%

Next earnings: October 27, 2026 (15 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.3%54.3%46
Feb0.9%56.5%46
Mar0.1%58.7%46
Apr2.8%57.4%47
May0.3%55.3%47
Jun0.3%44.7%47
Jul1.5%55.3%47
Aug-0.0%53.2%47
Sep0.3%46.8%47
Oct1.0%56.5%46
Nov2.6%65.2%46
Dec-0.4%56.5%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.03% 40.6% 2218
Tuesday 0.14% 43.2% 2407
Wednesday 0.05% 42.4% 2405
Thursday 0.04% 41.8% 2359
Friday 0.02% 41.4% 2343

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 97.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings26
Net Value-$11.2M
Net Shares Change-74,193
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings15
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
KEMPER J MARINER Chairman and CEO -$2.2M 1 1 sell
Terry Thomas S Chief Credit Officer -$867,062.01 1 1 sell
Wilson Uma Executive Vice President -$613,460 1 1 sell
Shankar Ram Chief Financial Officer -$303,220 1 1 sell
Newton Nikki Farentino President, Private Wealth Mgmt -$297,200.2 1 1 sell
Beaird Robert Brian Chief Human Resource Officer -$231,040 1 1 sell
Murphy Susan G -$200,427.17 1 1 sell
GRAVES GREG M +$80,011.042 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-04 – 2025-11-12 4 4 -$141,029.969 1 C-suite
2026-02-03 – 2026-02-03 4 4 -$2.4M 1 C-suite
2026-06-10 – 2026-06-10 3 3 -$1.2M 2 C-suite
2026-07-31 – 2026-08-07 9 8 -$4.4M 7 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-03 Peterman Tamara +$55,010.12 Transaction at $139.60, now -6.7%
2026-09-03 GRAVES GREG M +$80,011.042 Transaction at $139.60, now -6.7%
2026-08-18 Terry Thomas S Chief Credit Officer -$867,062.01 Transaction at $151.77, now -14.1%
2026-08-04 Wilson Uma Executive Vice President -$613,460 Transaction at $148.00, now -12.0%
2026-08-04 Newton Nikki Farentino President, Private Wealth Mgmt -$297,200.2 Transaction at $148.60, now -12.3%
2026-07-31 Beaird Robert Brian Chief Human Resource Officer -$231,040 Transaction at $144.40, now -9.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for UMBF on Trend Edge →