LITE — Lumentum Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates LITE Bullish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 56, actionability 27. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score39
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction56
Actionability27 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Lumentum Holdings Inc

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers component products, including semiconductor laser chips, laser sub-assemblies, line subsystems, and wavelength management systems. The company also offers system products, such as optical modules, optical circuit switches, and industrial lasers, including short-pulse solid-state lasers and k… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$885.57
Market Cap$78.87B
Float89.0M
Shares Outstanding89.7M
P/E (Forward)37.88
Price/Sales (TTM)26.17
vs. Analyst Target+29.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-230.10%
Operating Margin (TTM)27.95%
Revenue (TTM)$3.01B
Earnings Growth (YoY)71.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$1148.30 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $1.71B $199M $789M $482M
2022 $1.71B $199M $789M $482M
2023 $1.77B -$132M $569M $189M
2024 $1.36B -$547M $252M -$81.6M
2025 $1.65B $25.9M $460M $107M
2026 $3.01B -$6.94B $1.26B -$7.02B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $534M $4.2M
Dec 2025 $666M $78.2M
Mar 2026 $808M $144M
Jun 2026 $1.01B -$7.16B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.5%
Institutional Ownership94.1%
Short Float9.6%
% of All Funds Holding14.82%
Number of Funds Holding1,304

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$812.57Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$687.41Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$400.28Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$193.67Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$670.41Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$387.77Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$221.19Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$709.00 support 1.20x 3 months ago
$406.00 support 1.43x 5 months ago
$315.00 support 1.18x 7 months ago
$209.00 support 1.71x 8 months ago
$160.00 support 1.20x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (45 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 2.13% 0.99% 68.89% 17.46% -10.50%
1 Day 2.23% 0.73% 57.78% 23.57% -9.71%
1 Week 4.38% 3.92% 62.22% 34.75% -12.26%
2 Weeks 4.46% 4.54% 61.36% 46.09% -26.28%
1 Month 6.14% 3.87% 61.36% 81.86% -26.33%

Next earnings: October 30, 2026 (65 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.6%45.5%11
Feb10.1%54.5%11
Mar2.6%63.6%11
Apr-4.2%27.3%11
May3.1%54.5%11
Jun7.8%63.6%11
Jul4.9%72.7%11
Aug5.4%63.6%11
Sep-3.0%27.3%11
Oct1.7%54.5%11
Nov12.1%72.7%11
Dec5.3%54.5%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.34% 53.3% 522
Tuesday 0.16% 49.8% 574
Wednesday 0.33% 53.4% 571
Thursday 0.10% 51.2% 561
Friday 0.10% 52.4% 559

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 94.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings34
Net Value-$150M
Net Shares Change-145,758
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings22
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Retort Vincent Officer title: Executive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality -$48.2M 2 N/A
Kim Jae SVP, GENERAL COUNSEL -$25.6M 2 N/A
Wupen Yuen PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS -$10.7M 1 N/A
Small Ian -$7.5M 2 2 sell
Johnson Julia Suzanne -$2.7M 1 1 sell
Harris Isaac Hosojiro -$1.8M 1 1 sell
Sepe Matthew Joseph CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$1.0M 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-26 – 2025-08-28 4 3 -$2.1M 4 C-suite
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-21 8 6 -$8.7M 4 C-suite
2026-02-10 – 2026-02-18 5 3 -$38.9M 3 C-suite
2026-05-12 – 2026-05-22 9 7 -$45.0M 5 C-suite
2026-08-18 – 2026-08-21 5 3 -$84.5M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-21 Wupen Yuen PRESIDENT, GLOBAL BUS. UNITS -$10.7M Transaction at $848.91, now +4.3%
2026-08-21 Retort Vincent Officer title: Executive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality -$10.7M Transaction at $842.27, now +5.1%
2026-08-18 Retort Vincent Officer title: Executive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality -$37.5M Transaction at $937.20, now -5.5%
2026-08-18 Kim Jae SVP, GENERAL COUNSEL -$19.0M Transaction at $937.52, now -5.5%
2026-08-21 Kim Jae SVP, GENERAL COUNSEL -$6.6M Transaction at $840.72, now +5.3%
2026-05-22 Small Ian -$4.3M Transaction at $868.07, now +2.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for LITE on Trend Edge →