LITE — Lumentum Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates LITE Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 61, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction61
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Lumentum Holdings Inc

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech. The Cloud & Networking segment offers optical and photonic chips, components, modules, and subsystems supplied to cloud data center operators, AI/ML infrastructure providers, and network equipment manufacturer customers that are… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$802.01
Market Cap$61.13B
Float71.2M
Shares Outstanding77.8M
P/E (Forward)41.49
P/E (TTM)138.83
Price/Sales (TTM)24.57
vs. Analyst Target+38.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin17.68%
Operating Margin (TTM)21.77%
Revenue (TTM)$2.49B
Earnings Growth (YoY)71.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$1111.29 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.68B $136M $650M $427M
2021 $1.71B $199M $789M $482M
2022 $1.71B $199M $789M $482M
2023 $1.77B -$132M $569M $189M
2024 $1.36B -$547M $252M -$81.6M
2025 $1.65B $25.9M $460M $107M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $481M $213M
Sep 2025 $534M $4.2M
Dec 2025 $666M $78.2M
Mar 2026 $808M $144M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.8%
Institutional Ownership105.3%
Short Float13.1%
% of All Funds Holding12.37%
Number of Funds Holding1,017

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$865.89Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$578.53Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$335.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$167.28Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$610.82Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$352.09Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$202.46Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$709.00 support 1.20x 2 months ago
$406.00 support 1.43x 4 months ago
$315.00 support 1.18x 6 months ago
$209.00 support 1.71x 7 months ago
$160.00 support 1.20x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (44 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.96% 0.80% 68.18% 17.46% -10.50%
1 Day 1.98% 0.60% 56.82% 23.57% -9.71%
1 Week 4.46% 4.01% 61.36% 34.75% -12.26%
2 Weeks 4.46% 4.54% 61.36% 46.09% -26.28%
1 Month 6.51% 3.93% 62.79% 81.86% -26.33%

Next earnings: August 11, 2026 (30 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.6%45.5%11
Feb10.1%54.5%11
Mar2.6%63.6%11
Apr-4.2%27.3%11
May3.1%54.5%11
Jun7.8%63.6%11
Jul7.1%80.0%10
Aug5.4%63.6%11
Sep-3.0%27.3%11
Oct1.7%54.5%11
Nov12.1%72.7%11
Dec5.3%54.5%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.35% 53.4% 515
Tuesday 0.16% 49.7% 567
Wednesday 0.35% 53.7% 564
Thursday 0.06% 50.9% 554
Friday 0.08% 52.2% 552

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 105.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings38
Net Value-$69.3M
Net Shares Change-186,873
% of Float-0.3%
C-Suite Filings25
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lillie Brian -$11.8M 1 N/A
Small Ian -$7.5M 2 2 sell
Harris Isaac Hosojiro -$6.6M 3 1 sell
HERSCHER PENNY -$5.0M 2 2 sell
Johnson Julia Suzanne -$2.7M 1 1 sell
Sepe Matthew Joseph CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$1.0M 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-08 – 2025-08-20 5 4 -$1.2M 4 C-suite
2025-08-26 – 2025-08-28 4 3 -$2.1M 4 C-suite
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-21 8 6 -$8.7M 4 C-suite
2026-02-10 – 2026-02-18 5 3 -$38.9M 3 C-suite
2026-05-12 – 2026-05-22 9 7 -$45.0M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-22 Small Ian -$4.3M Transaction at $868.07, now -7.6%
2026-05-12 Small Ian -$3.2M Transaction at $911.17, now -12.0%
2026-02-10 HERSCHER PENNY -$2.6M Transaction at $535.48, now +49.8%
2026-02-13 HERSCHER PENNY -$2.4M Transaction at $597.29, now +34.3%
2025-11-10 Sepe Matthew Joseph CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER -$1.0M Transaction at $239.63, now +234.7%
2025-11-12 Johnson Julia Suzanne -$2.7M Transaction at $270.39, now +196.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for LITE on Trend Edge →