AXTI — AXT Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AXTI Bullish with a Setup Score of 43, net conviction 47, actionability 39. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score43
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction47
Actionability39 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About AXT Inc

AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. The company provides indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, high-speed data transfer in data centers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, consumer devices, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, thermo-photovoltaics, RF amplifier and switching, infra… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$67.45
Market Cap$4.79B
Float61.6M
Shares Outstanding65.6M
P/E (Forward)106.38
P/E (TTM)2,437.33
Price/Sales (TTM)38.20
vs. Analyst Target+35.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.23%
Operating Margin (TTM)21.90%
Revenue (TTM)$126M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-57.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$91.60 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $95.4M $3.2M $30.3M $11.6M
2021 $137M $14.6M $47.4M $25.1M
2022 $141M $15.8M $52.1M $30.1M
2023 $75.8M -$17.9M $13.3M -$8.8M
2024 $99.4M -$11.6M $23.8M -$338,000
2025 $88.3M -$21.3M $11.2M -$11.2M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $28.0M -$1.9M
Dec 2025 $23.0M -$3.5M
Mar 2026 $26.9M -$1.6M
Jun 2026 $47.6M $11.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.0%
Institutional Ownership73.0%
Short Float16.3%
% of All Funds Holding2.91%
Number of Funds Holding256

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$64.59Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$56.24Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$29.65Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$13.79Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$52.28Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$27.52Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$15.22Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$95.00 resistance 1.38x 1 months ago
$45.00 support 2.47x 3 months ago
$42.00 support 2.98x 4 months ago
$18.30 support 2.38x 5 months ago
$10.60 support 3.00x 7 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.99% 0.74% 53.10% 42.12% -32.03%
1 Day 0.97% 0.85% 54.87% 69.30% -42.34%
1 Week 2.07% 0.46% 50.44% 88.71% -39.28%
2 Weeks 2.40% -0.25% 46.02% 100.88% -37.66%
1 Month 3.56% -1.28% 43.75% 106.58% -39.16%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.2%50.0%28
Feb9.7%46.4%28
Mar-1.8%25.0%28
Apr7.7%39.3%28
May5.0%46.4%28
Jun0.8%44.8%29
Jul5.1%51.7%29
Aug-2.9%35.7%28
Sep-2.3%53.6%28
Oct-1.4%35.7%28
Nov9.3%57.1%28
Dec8.1%60.7%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.00% 46.3% 1335
Tuesday 0.19% 47.0% 1459
Wednesday 0.18% 45.2% 1459
Thursday 0.18% 46.0% 1431
Friday 0.20% 47.0% 1423

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 73.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.0%

Founder-led management: Morris S. Young (Chief Executive Officer & Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings32
Net Value-$61.9M
Net Shares Change-1,770,132
% of Float-2.9%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
YOUNG MORRIS S CEO -$21.9M 1 1 sell
FISCHER GARY L CFO -$21.3M 2 2 sell
CHEN JESSE -$5.9M 5 5 sell
CHANG DAVID C -$926,392.109 1 1 sell
LEBLANC LEONARD J -$605,705.1 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-04 – 2025-11-18 7 4 -$3.9M 5 C-suite
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-16 13 4 -$43.3M 6 C-suite
2026-06-03 – 2026-06-17 7 3 -$28.7M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-19 LEBLANC LEONARD J -$605,705.1 Transaction at $93.19, now -27.6%
2026-06-03 YOUNG MORRIS S CEO -$21.9M Transaction at $59.09, now +14.1%
2026-06-15 CHEN JESSE -$2.0M Transaction at $92.82, now -27.3%
2026-06-10 CHEN JESSE -$1.5M Transaction at $89.97, now -25.0%
2026-06-17 CHEN JESSE -$711,284.116 Transaction at $115.24, now -41.5%
2026-06-17 CHANG DAVID C -$926,392.109 Transaction at $111.17, now -39.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AXT Inc (AXTI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AXTI on Trend Edge →