AXTI — AXT Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About AXT Inc

AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. The company provides indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, high-speed data transfer in data centers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, consumer devices, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, thermo-photovoltaics, RF amplifier and switching, infra… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$122.77
Market Cap$7.92B
Float48.8M
Shares Outstanding65.4M
P/E (Forward)384.62
Price/Sales (TTM)82.57
vs. Analyst Target-28.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-14.69%
Operating Margin (TTM)-5.89%
Revenue (TTM)$95.9M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-57.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$87.75 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $95.4M $3.2M $30.3M $11.6M
2021 $137M $14.6M $47.4M $25.1M
2022 $141M $15.8M $52.1M $30.1M
2023 $75.8M -$17.9M $13.3M -$8.8M
2024 $99.4M -$11.6M $23.8M -$338,000
2025 $88.3M -$21.3M $11.2M -$12.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $18.0M -$7.0M
Sep 2025 $28.0M -$1.9M
Dec 2025 $23.0M -$3.5M
Mar 2026 $26.9M -$1.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership4.3%
Institutional Ownership57.7%
Short Float15.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.17%
Number of Funds Holding178

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$93.61Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$35.69Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$18.80Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.77Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$35.78Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$18.84Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.99Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$59.00 support 2.61x 0 months ago
$79.00 support 1.43x 0 months ago
$42.00 support 2.98x 1 months ago
$18.30 support 2.38x 2 months ago
$10.60 support 3.00x 4 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (112 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.62% 0.74% 52.68% 38.60% -32.03%
1 Day 0.72% 0.80% 54.46% 69.30% -42.34%
1 Week 1.29% 0.23% 50.00% 87.28% -39.28%
2 Weeks 1.76% -0.37% 45.54% 100.88% -37.66%
1 Month 3.56% -1.28% 43.75% 106.58% -39.16%

Next earnings: July 19, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.2%50.0%28
Feb9.7%46.4%28
Mar-1.8%25.0%28
Apr7.7%39.3%28
May4.1%44.4%27
Jun1.9%46.4%28
Jul5.9%53.6%28
Aug-2.9%35.7%28
Sep-2.3%53.6%28
Oct-1.4%35.7%28
Nov9.3%57.1%28
Dec8.1%60.7%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 46.0% 1322
Tuesday 0.23% 47.1% 1447
Wednesday 0.22% 45.4% 1446
Thursday 0.18% 46.1% 1418
Friday 0.19% 47.0% 1412

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 57.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 4.3%

Founder-led management: Morris S. Young (Chief Executive Officer & Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings24
Net Value-$40.0M
Net Shares Change-1,584,253
% of Float-3.2%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
FISCHER GARY L CFO -$21.3M 2 2 sell
YOUNG MORRIS S CEO -$11.8M 2 2 sell
CHEN JESSE -$3.8M 4 4 sell
CHANG DAVID C -$2.5M 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-04 – 2025-11-18 7 4 -$3.9M 5 C-suite
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-16 13 4 -$43.3M 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-03 FISCHER GARY L CFO -$16.8M Transaction at $41.45, now +196.2%
2026-03-16 FISCHER GARY L CFO -$4.5M Transaction at $50.60, now +142.6%
2026-03-03 YOUNG MORRIS S CEO -$6.9M Transaction at $43.32, now +183.4%
2026-03-10 YOUNG MORRIS S CEO -$4.9M Transaction at $36.71, now +234.5%
2026-03-12 CHEN JESSE -$1.4M Transaction at $46.66, now +163.1%
2026-03-05 CHANG DAVID C -$1.5M Transaction at $38.48, now +219.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AXT Inc (AXTI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AXTI on Trend Edge →