MAT — Mattel Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Mattel Inc

Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicl… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$15.39
Market Cap$4.36B
Float240.2M
Shares Outstanding290.6M
P/E (Forward)11.25
P/E (TTM)9.62
Price/Sales (TTM)0.81
vs. Analyst Target+21.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.27%
Operating Margin (TTM)-9.19%
Revenue (TTM)$5.38B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-18.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$18.71 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.59B $124M $2.24B $569M
2021 $5.46B $903M $2.63B $956M
2022 $5.43B $394M $2.48B $875M
2023 $5.44B $214M $2.58B $562M
2024 $5.38B $542M $2.73B $987M
2025 $5.35B $398M $2.61B $774M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.02B $53.4M
Sep 2025 $1.74B $278M
Dec 2025 $1.77B $106M
Mar 2026 $862M $61.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership108.3%
Short Float6.6%
% of All Funds Holding5.06%
Number of Funds Holding391

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$15.01Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$18.01Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$18.39Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$18.88Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$17.73Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$18.27Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$18.66Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$16.50 resistance 1.12x 1 months ago
$20.70 resistance 1.88x 2 months ago
$21.40 resistance 1.13x 13 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (132 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.01% 0.05% 50.76% 20.74% -28.40%
1 Day 0.39% 0.47% 55.30% 23.22% -24.98%
1 Week 0.75% 0.50% 52.67% 21.42% -18.35%
2 Weeks 0.87% 0.92% 55.73% 22.41% -18.90%
1 Month 1.07% 1.32% 57.25% 26.13% -40.69%

Next earnings: April 29, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%60.0%50
Feb2.6%60.0%50
Mar0.7%56.0%50
Apr1.0%44.0%50
May3.0%65.3%49
Jun1.5%51.0%49
Jul0.3%44.0%50
Aug-0.1%40.0%50
Sep-1.2%42.0%50
Oct1.1%62.0%50
Nov4.1%58.0%50
Dec-3.4%34.0%50

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 44.3% 2377
Tuesday 0.11% 45.0% 2576
Wednesday 0.11% 45.0% 2577
Thursday 0.10% 47.0% 2527
Friday 0.02% 43.8% 2515

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 108.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value+$1.0M
Net Shares Change65,000
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kreiz Ynon Chairman and CEO +$1.0M 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-12 Kreiz Ynon Chairman and CEO +$1.0M Transaction at $15.53, now -0.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Mattel Inc (MAT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MAT on Trend Edge →