MAT — Mattel Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MAT Bearish with a Setup Score of 52, net conviction 55, actionability 49. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score52
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction55
Actionability49 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Mattel Inc

Mattel, Inc., a play and family entertainment company, designs, manufactures, markets, and sells toys, games, and other products in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers dolls and accessories, books, content, and lifestyle products for children under the Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Disney Frozen, Monster High, Polly Pocket, and KPop Demon Hunters brands; die-cast vehicl… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$16.69
Market Cap$4.74B
Float231.4M
Shares Outstanding285.7M
P/E (Forward)8.47
P/E (TTM)12.19
Price/Sales (TTM)0.86
vs. Analyst Target+8.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin7.79%
Operating Margin (TTM)1.32%
Revenue (TTM)$5.49B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-18.50%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$18.17 (16 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.59B $124M $2.24B $569M
2021 $5.46B $903M $2.63B $956M
2022 $5.43B $394M $2.48B $875M
2023 $5.44B $214M $2.58B $562M
2024 $5.38B $542M $2.73B $987M
2025 $5.35B $398M $2.61B $774M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.74B $278M
Dec 2025 $1.77B $106M
Mar 2026 $862M $61.0M
Jun 2026 $1.13B -$18.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.0%
Institutional Ownership108.7%
Short Float11.3%
% of All Funds Holding4.57%
Number of Funds Holding402

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$14.65Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$15.63Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$17.04Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$18.23Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$15.57Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$17.06Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$18.19Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$12.60 support 1.13x 0 months ago
$20.70 resistance 1.88x 7 months ago
$21.40 resistance 1.13x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (133 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.15% 0.12% 53.38% 20.74% -28.40%
1 Day 0.49% 0.45% 54.14% 23.22% -24.98%
1 Week 0.94% 0.74% 54.89% 21.42% -18.35%
2 Weeks 1.05% 1.03% 57.14% 22.41% -18.90%
1 Month 1.18% 1.77% 57.89% 26.13% -40.69%

Next earnings: October 20, 2026 (9 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.9%60.0%50
Feb2.6%60.0%50
Mar0.7%56.0%50
Apr1.0%44.0%50
May2.9%64.0%50
Jun1.3%50.0%50
Jul0.5%45.1%51
Aug-0.1%39.2%51
Sep-1.4%41.2%51
Oct1.1%62.0%50
Nov4.1%58.0%50
Dec-3.4%34.0%50

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 44.2% 2397
Tuesday 0.10% 45.0% 2598
Wednesday 0.10% 44.9% 2599
Thursday 0.11% 47.0% 2549
Friday 0.03% 44.0% 2535

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 108.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings2
Net Value+$422,391.089
Net Shares Change25,917
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kreiz Ynon Chairman & CEO +$1.0M 1 1 buy
Isaias Zanatta Roberto Jacobo EVP & Chief Supply Chain Offr -$586,909.411 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-02 Isaias Zanatta Roberto Jacobo EVP & Chief Supply Chain Offr -$586,909.411 Transaction at $15.02, now +11.1%
2026-02-12 Kreiz Ynon Chairman & CEO +$1.0M Transaction at $15.53, now +7.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Mattel Inc (MAT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MAT on Trend Edge →