TSCO — Tractor Supply Company

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TSCO Bearish with a Setup Score of 59, net conviction 61, actionability 57. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score59
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction61
Actionability57 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Tractor Supply Company

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird fe… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$30.43
Market Cap$15.80B
Float522.7M
Shares Outstanding524.4M
P/E (Forward)13.76
P/E (TTM)14.55
Price/Sales (TTM)1.01
vs. Analyst Target+46.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin6.91%
Operating Margin (TTM)6.50%
Revenue (TTM)$15.65B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-8.10%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$44.59 (30 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $10.62B $749M $3.76B $1.21B
2021 $12.73B $997M $4.48B $1.58B
2022 $14.20B $1.09B $4.97B $1.78B
2023 $14.56B $1.11B $5.23B $1.87B
2024 $14.88B $1.10B $5.40B $1.91B
2025 $15.52B $1.10B $5.16B $1.96B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $4.44B $430M
Sep 2025 $3.72B $259M
Dec 2025 $3.90B $227M
Mar 2026 $3.59B $165M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership95.2%
Short Float5.0%
% of All Funds Holding13.38%
Number of Funds Holding1,100

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$30.90Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$45.55Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$50.20Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$48.62Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$43.56Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$49.04Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$48.85Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$35.10 resistance 1.99x 1 months ago
$44.00 resistance 1.49x 2 months ago
$51.00 resistance 1.08x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (124 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.89% 0.43% 58.06% 14.47% -9.58%
1 Day 1.58% 0.10% 50.81% 22.18% -9.10%
1 Week 1.66% 0.73% 54.03% 41.03% -19.10%
2 Weeks 2.57% 2.46% 60.48% 41.03% -20.90%
1 Month 3.07% 2.69% 60.98% 37.85% -23.08%

Next earnings: July 23, 2026 (12 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.7%65.6%32
Feb3.9%62.5%32
Mar2.7%63.6%33
Apr2.2%63.6%33
May-0.4%45.5%33
Jun1.3%60.6%33
Jul2.8%56.3%32
Aug1.1%53.1%32
Sep-2.1%40.6%32
Oct3.4%50.0%32
Nov1.9%62.5%32
Dec-0.4%34.4%32

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.03% 49.2% 1531
Tuesday 0.06% 47.3% 1673
Wednesday 0.06% 49.0% 1671
Thursday 0.14% 48.0% 1639
Friday 0.27% 50.1% 1632

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 95.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings15
Net Value-$12.9M
Net Shares Change-88,206
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lawton III Harry A President & CEO -$4.5M 1 1 sell
Estep Jonathan S EVP Chief Merchandise Officer -$1.5M 1 1 sell
Mills Robert D EVP Chief Technology Officer -$1.2M 1 1 sell
Weikel Mark J -$479,360 1 1 sell
Kersey Melissa EVP Chief HR Officer -$377,426.053 1 1 sell
Ellison Noni L SVP General Counsel -$332,592 1 N/A
Yankee Colin EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer -$223,449.476 2 2 sell
Barton Kurt D EVP Chief Financial Officer -$101,378.04 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-28 – 2025-08-11 4 4 -$5.5M 3 C-suite
2026-02-05 – 2026-02-17 6 5 -$7.6M 6 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-06 Ham Margaret M +$2,951.863 Transaction at $30.17, now +0.9%
2026-02-05 Lawton III Harry A President & CEO -$4.5M Transaction at $53.16, now -42.8%
2026-02-12 Mills Robert D EVP Chief Technology Officer -$1.2M Transaction at $44.83, now -32.1%
2026-02-12 Estep Jonathan S EVP Chief Merchandise Officer -$1.5M Transaction at $41.34, now -26.4%
2026-02-17 Yankee Colin EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer -$129,853.992 Transaction at $51.99, now -41.5%
2025-08-15 Kersey Melissa EVP Chief HR Officer -$377,426.053 Transaction at $59.78, now -49.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TSCO on Trend Edge →