PYPL — PayPal Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PYPL Bearish with a Setup Score of 40, net conviction 56, actionability 28. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score40
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction56
Actionability28 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About PayPal Holdings Inc

PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments for merchants and consumers worldwide. The company operates a two-sided network at scale that connects merchants and consumers that enables its customers to connect, transact, and send and receive payments through online and in person, as well as transfer and withdraw funds using various funding sources, such as bank accounts, PayPal or Venmo account balance, consu… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$46.32
Market Cap$39.98B
Float880.0M
Shares Outstanding882.1M
P/E (Forward)8.39
P/E (TTM)8.36
Price/Sales (TTM)1.19
vs. Analyst Target+10.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin15.00%
Operating Margin (TTM)17.97%
Revenue (TTM)$33.73B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-6.20%
Dividend Rate0.6%
Analyst Target Price$51.38 (47 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $21.45B $4.20B $11.78B $6.46B
2021 $25.37B $4.17B $14.00B $5.60B
2022 $27.52B $2.42B $13.77B $4.99B
2023 $29.77B $4.25B $13.70B $6.83B
2024 $31.80B $4.15B $14.66B $6.74B
2025 $33.17B $5.23B $15.46B $7.70B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $8.29B $1.26B
Sep 2025 $8.42B $1.25B
Dec 2025 $8.68B $1.44B
Mar 2026 $8.35B $1.11B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership79.8%
Short Float6.2%
% of All Funds Holding17.12%
Number of Funds Holding1,407

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$44.02Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$52.12Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$62.13Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$66.65Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$51.89Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$62.28Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$64.45Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$52.00 resistance 2.34x 4 months ago
$58.00 resistance 1.13x 5 months ago
$69.00 resistance 1.11x 7 months ago
$86.00 resistance 1.29x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (44 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.38% 0.22% 54.55% 12.84% -20.43%
1 Day -0.56% 0.23% 52.27% 11.48% -24.59%
1 Week -0.42% -0.69% 47.73% 18.92% -30.07%
2 Weeks -0.50% 0.87% 52.27% 13.90% -37.12%
1 Month 0.53% 0.60% 53.49% 35.80% -46.75%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (22 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.4%63.6%11
Feb-5.3%36.4%11
Mar-0.5%54.5%11
Apr4.1%81.8%11
May0.5%36.4%11
Jun1.2%63.6%11
Jul5.7%60.0%10
Aug1.7%63.6%11
Sep-2.9%27.3%11
Oct0.2%54.5%11
Nov0.2%54.5%11
Dec-0.1%54.5%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.11% 54.7% 517
Tuesday -0.01% 49.3% 570
Wednesday 0.09% 52.7% 567
Thursday 0.05% 53.1% 557
Friday -0.05% 50.0% 554

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 79.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings21
Net Value-$8.5M
Net Shares Change-163,640
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings21
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kereere Suzan President, Global Markets -$2.7M 4 1 sell
Keller Frank Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal -$2.1M 3 N/A
Webster Aaron EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer -$615,309.349 1 1 sell
Natali Chris VP, Chief Accounting Officer -$587,516.475 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-10-31 – 2025-11-12 5 4 -$2.2M 5 C-suite
2026-02-09 – 2026-02-19 3 3 -$1.7M 3 C-suite
2026-03-04 – 2026-03-04 3 3 -$2.1M 3 C-suite
2026-06-04 – 2026-06-04 3 3 -$364,316.58 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-12 Webster Aaron EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer -$615,309.349 Transaction at $66.29, now -30.1%
2025-11-04 Kereere Suzan President, Global Markets -$860,935 Transaction at $68.87, now -32.7%
2026-05-20 Kereere Suzan President, Global Markets -$183,944.584 Transaction at $44.20, now +4.8%
2026-04-29 Keller Frank Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal -$536,205.062 Transaction at $49.96, now -7.3%
2025-10-31 Natali Chris VP, Chief Accounting Officer -$94,987.093 Transaction at $69.13, now -33.0%
2025-08-01 Natali Chris VP, Chief Accounting Officer -$492,529.382 Transaction at $69.35, now -33.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PYPL on Trend Edge →