MARA — Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MARA Bearish with a Setup Score of 41, net conviction 27, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score41
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction27
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Marathon Digital Holdings Inc

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates as an energy and digital infrastructure company in North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. The company leverages Bitcoin Mining and Artificial Intelligence compute to monetize excess energy and underutilized power, optimize power management across operations and support AI inference applications. The company was formerly known as Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$12.60
Market Cap$5.04B
Float373.0M
Shares Outstanding381.3M
P/E (Forward)39.53
Price/Sales (TTM)5.81
vs. Analyst Target+46.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-234.83%
Operating Margin (TTM)-558.13%
Revenue (TTM)$868M
Earnings Growth (YoY)86.70%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$18.40 (15 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.4M -$10.4M -$2.6M -$7.4M
2021 $159M -$37.1M $117M $2.0M
2022 $118M -$694M -$33.7M -$625M
2023 $388M $261M -$15.3M $467M
2024 $656M $541M -$159M $1.06B
2025 $907M -$1.31B -$433M -$547M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $238M $808M
Sep 2025 $252M $123M
Dec 2025 $202M -$1.71B
Mar 2026 $175M -$1.26B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.9%
Institutional Ownership69.6%
Short Float27.5%
% of All Funds Holding4.57%
Number of Funds Holding376

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$13.37Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.85Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$13.87Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$14.19Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$11.85Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$13.63Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$15.18Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$26.80 resistance 1.09x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (55 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.04% 0.83% 54.55% 22.11% -18.37%
1 Day -2.10% -1.60% 36.36% 16.43% -16.53%
1 Week -1.89% -5.21% 30.91% 176.98% -42.85%
2 Weeks 4.55% -2.33% 43.64% 267.63% -41.72%
1 Month 3.00% -3.61% 38.89% 257.83% -74.00%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (24 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan10.2%50.0%14
Feb8.5%42.9%14
Mar-12.2%28.6%14
Apr2.3%42.9%14
May1.5%50.0%14
Jun3.2%60.0%15
Jul23.3%71.4%14
Aug-1.0%21.4%14
Sep-7.2%21.4%14
Oct1.8%50.0%14
Nov26.9%57.1%14
Dec-3.8%28.6%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.54% 41.1% 669
Tuesday 0.72% 41.0% 732
Wednesday 0.50% 40.9% 729
Thursday -0.39% 38.3% 716
Friday 0.38% 41.0% 714

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 69.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings33
Net Value-$10.7M
Net Shares Change487,992
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings27
Clusters Detected7

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Nowaid Zabi General Counsel -$1.2M 3 1 sell
Khan Salman Hassan Chief Financial Officer -$937,720.04 3 N/A
Thiel Frederick G Chief Executive Officer -$602,634.55 2 N/A
Mealer-Burke Vicki -$226,580.14 1 1 sell
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K -$112,000 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-08 – 2025-08-19 3 3 -$982,820.76 2 C-suite
2025-09-10 – 2025-09-18 4 4 -$1.7M 2 C-suite
2025-10-08 – 2025-10-20 3 3 -$1.3M 2 C-suite
2025-11-10 – 2025-11-19 4 4 -$1.3M 3 C-suite
2026-04-21 – 2026-04-21 3 3 -$1.0M 3 C-suite
2026-05-20 – 2026-05-20 3 3 -$982,783.44 3 C-suite
2026-06-22 – 2026-06-24 4 4 -$831,696.25 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-10 Nowaid Zabi General Counsel -$555,733.4 Transaction at $16.91, now -25.5%
2025-09-10 Mealer-Burke Vicki -$226,580.14 Transaction at $15.22, now -17.2%
2026-02-19 Thiel Frederick G Chief Executive Officer -$210,688.3 Transaction at $7.66, now +64.5%
2026-02-19 Khan Salman Hassan Chief Financial Officer -$122,560 Transaction at $7.66, now +64.5%
2026-06-24 MELLINGER DOUGLAS K -$112,000 Transaction at $16.00, now -21.3%
2026-04-21 Nowaid Zabi General Counsel -$505,080 Transaction at $12.00, now +5.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Marathon Digital Holdings Inc (MARA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MARA on Trend Edge →