XFLT — XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust

XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Trust is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$18.43
Market Cap$289M
Shares Outstanding15.2M
P/E (TTM)23.69
Price/Sales (TTM)14.74
vs. Analyst Target-56.6% to analyst PT
Dividend Rate2.7%
Analyst Target Price$8.00

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 -$9.4M -$11.0M -$9.4M -$11.0M
2021 $38.4M $35.5M $38.4M $35.5M
2022 -$31.1M -$36.7M -$31.1M -$33.8M
2023 $53.0M $46.6M $53.0M $46.6M
2024 $57.7M $48.9M $57.7M $66.4M
2025 $32.5M $9.9M $19.5M $9.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Mar 2024 $39.1M $36.6M
Sep 2024 $45.0M $12.3M
Mar 2025 $40.0M -$5.0M
Sep 2025 $21.4M $14.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.8%
Institutional Ownership25.6%
% of All Funds Holding0.05%
Number of Funds Holding4

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$18.14Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$21.81Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$26.00Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$30.89Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$21.98Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$26.52Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$30.51Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$16.60 support 1.47x 1 months ago
$22.20 resistance 1.32x 2 months ago
$24.60 resistance 1.35x 5 months ago
$26.50 resistance 1.25x 6 months ago
$35.30 resistance 1.78x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (28 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.03% 0.13% 57.14% 0.93% -2.99%
1 Day -0.03% 0.01% 50.00% 2.22% -5.43%
1 Week -0.23% 0.08% 50.00% 7.02% -10.33%
2 Weeks -2.51% -0.82% 28.57% 7.02% -27.29%
1 Month -2.07% -0.96% 35.71% 22.43% -42.72%

Next earnings: March 4, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.8%77.8%9
Feb-4.1%33.3%9
Mar-5.4%33.3%9
Apr0.7%33.3%9
May0.4%62.5%8
Jun1.5%37.5%8
Jul1.5%62.5%8
Aug-0.9%25.0%8
Sep-3.2%12.5%8
Oct2.4%62.5%8
Nov-1.7%44.4%9
Dec-3.3%33.3%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 45.9% 405
Tuesday 0.04% 48.7% 448
Wednesday 0.02% 48.1% 443
Thursday -0.10% 46.4% 435
Friday -0.12% 42.4% 436

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 25.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.8%

Full insider transaction history and smart buy/sell sentiment summary available on Trend Edge.

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust (XFLT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for XFLT on Trend Edge →