MCD — McDonald’s Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About McDonald’s Corporation

McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$279.26
Market Cap$201.91B
Float709.5M
Shares Outstanding710.5M
P/E (Forward)21.55
P/E (TTM)23.10
Price/Sales (TTM)7.36
vs. Analyst Target+18.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin31.62%
Operating Margin (TTM)44.25%
Revenue (TTM)$27.45B
Earnings Growth (YoY)6.90%
Dividend Rate7.4%
Analyst Target Price$330.00 (36 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $19.21B $4.73B $9.75B $9.11B
2021 $23.22B $7.55B $12.58B $12.18B
2022 $23.18B $6.18B $13.21B $10.90B
2023 $25.50B $8.47B $14.56B $13.86B
2024 $25.92B $8.22B $14.71B $13.95B
2025 $26.89B $8.56B $15.44B $14.64B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $6.84B $2.25B
Sep 2025 $7.08B $2.28B
Dec 2025 $7.01B $2.16B
Mar 2026 $6.52B $1.98B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership77.1%
Short Float1.4%
% of All Funds Holding40.81%
Number of Funds Holding3,354

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$292.98Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$307.35Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$304.55Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$287.73Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$307.30Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$304.31Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$292.49Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$294.00 resistance 1.09x 0 months ago
$341.00 resistance 1.02x 1 months ago
$267.00 support 1.06x 20 months ago
$255.00 support 1.27x 21 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.16% 0.03% 50.41% 4.38% -3.04%
1 Day 0.11% -0.07% 46.28% 8.90% -6.27%
1 Week 0.34% 0.50% 55.37% 10.63% -10.72%
2 Weeks 0.74% 1.10% 57.85% 15.69% -11.43%
1 Month 1.25% 1.18% 58.33% 19.38% -14.41%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (71 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.4%47.1%51
Feb0.6%51.0%51
Mar2.0%70.6%51
Apr2.3%66.7%51
May1.2%56.0%50
Jun0.4%46.0%50
Jul0.6%56.0%50
Aug-0.0%48.0%50
Sep0.2%60.0%50
Oct1.5%56.0%50
Nov2.8%78.0%50
Dec0.8%52.9%51

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.04% 50.0% 2384
Tuesday 0.07% 50.2% 2586
Wednesday 0.02% 48.5% 2587
Thursday 0.06% 49.3% 2537
Friday 0.07% 50.2% 2524

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 77.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings25
Net Value-$27.3M
Net Shares Change-5,162
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings25
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kempczinski Christopher J Chairman and CEO -$13.7M 1 N/A
Borden Ian Frederick EVP - CFO -$3.3M 1 N/A
Ralls-Morrison Desiree EVP, Chief Legal Officer -$1.6M 2 N/A
Erlinger Joseph M. President, McDonald's USA -$1.5M 3 1 sell
Banner Jonathan EVP - Chief Impact Officer -$1.2M 2 2 sell
Flatley Edith Morgan EVP - Global CMO -$1.1M 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-07 – 2025-11-21 3 3 -$4.9M 3 C-suite
2026-02-11 – 2026-02-24 5 4 -$16.2M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-24 Banner Jonathan EVP - Chief Impact Officer -$842,076.269 Transaction at $299.74, now -6.8%
2025-11-18 Erlinger Joseph M. President, McDonald's USA -$977,094.9 Transaction at $305.82, now -8.7%
2025-08-19 Banner Jonathan EVP - Chief Impact Officer -$310,000 Transaction at $310.00, now -9.9%
2026-02-17 Kempczinski Christopher J Chairman and CEO -$13.7M Transaction at $250.63, now +11.4%
2026-02-17 Flatley Edith Morgan EVP - Global CMO -$1.1M Transaction at $256.44, now +8.9%
2025-12-18 Ralls-Morrison Desiree EVP, Chief Legal Officer -$795,520 Transaction at $320.00, now -12.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MCD on Trend Edge →