PRVA — Privia Health Group Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PRVA Bearish with a Setup Score of 40, net conviction 46, actionability 34. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score40
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction46
Actionability34 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Privia Health Group Inc

Privia Health Group, Inc. operates as a national physician-enablement company in the United States. The company collaborates with physician practices, health plans, and health systems. It also offers technology and population health tools to enhance providers' workflows; management services organization that enable providers to focus on their patients by reducing administrative work; and single-TIN medical group that facilitates negotiating power… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$21.20
Market Cap$2.71B
Float115.4M
Shares Outstanding127.7M
P/E (Forward)23.64
P/E (TTM)96.36
Price/Sales (TTM)1.15
vs. Analyst Target+49.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin1.19%
Operating Margin (TTM)1.86%
Revenue (TTM)$2.36B
Earnings Growth (YoY)250.00%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$31.67 (21 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $817M $31.2M $82.6M $27.2M
2021 $966M -$188M $63.7M -$215M
2022 $1.36B -$8.6M $135M -$14.0M
2023 $1.66B $23.1M $162M $35.6M
2024 $1.74B $14.4M $177M $35.1M
2025 $2.12B $22.9M $209M $53.8M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $580M $6.9M
Dec 2025 $541M $9.2M
Mar 2026 $604M $3.1M
Jun 2026 $633M $9.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership6.2%
Institutional Ownership98.3%
Short Float3.3%
% of All Funds Holding3.40%
Number of Funds Holding299

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$24.33Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$23.32Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$23.17Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$22.72Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$23.26Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$23.19Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$22.26Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$26.00 resistance 1.34x 0 months ago
$23.80 resistance 1.15x 0 months ago
$19.50 support 1.25x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (22 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.15% 0.14% 50.00% 1.98% -3.60%
1 Day -0.53% -1.81% 27.27% 16.07% -5.92%
1 Week -1.21% -1.73% 36.36% 13.18% -16.96%
2 Weeks -2.60% -4.65% 27.27% 20.35% -20.43%
1 Month -2.85% -5.63% 28.57% 29.89% -29.71%

Next earnings: October 25, 2026 (59 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.10% 52.2% 249
Tuesday 0.03% 50.0% 276
Wednesday -0.06% 45.3% 274
Thursday 0.25% 48.5% 268
Friday -0.06% 46.8% 269

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 98.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 6.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings24
Net Value-$10.2M
Net Shares Change-68,195
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings18
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Mountcastle David EVP & Chief Financial Officer -$2.1M 7 5 sell
Mehrotra Parth Chief Executive Officer -$1.8M 2 2 sell
Fargis Edward C EVP & General Counsel -$214,756.329 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-02 – 2026-03-16 8 4 -$4.7M 7 C-suite
2026-05-05 – 2026-05-13 4 3 -$3.4M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-10 Fargis Edward C EVP & General Counsel -$214,756.329 Transaction at $22.99, now -7.8%
2026-03-16 Mehrotra Parth Chief Executive Officer -$1.2M Transaction at $21.71, now -2.3%
2026-03-16 Mountcastle David EVP & Chief Financial Officer -$282,599.951 Transaction at $21.71, now -2.3%
2026-03-10 Mountcastle David EVP & Chief Financial Officer -$252,981.715 Transaction at $22.99, now -7.8%
2026-04-06 Mountcastle David EVP & Chief Financial Officer -$116,051.1 Transaction at $20.85, now +1.7%
2026-03-18 Mountcastle David EVP & Chief Financial Officer -$141,305.01 Transaction at $22.11, now -4.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Privia Health Group Inc (PRVA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PRVA on Trend Edge →