AMSF — AMERISAFE Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About AMERISAFE Inc

AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company provides benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. It sells its products through retail and wholesale brokers and agents; and small and mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$30.80
Market Cap$585M
Float18.3M
Shares Outstanding18.7M
P/E (Forward)22.37
P/E (TTM)12.88
Price/Sales (TTM)1.80
vs. Analyst Target+19.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin14.27%
Operating Margin (TTM)12.68%
Revenue (TTM)$325M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-8.50%
Dividend Rate1.6%
Analyst Target Price$36.67 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $340M $86.6M $340M $107M
2021 $316M $65.8M $155M $80.5M
2022 $295M $55.6M $142M $69.0M
2023 $307M $62.1M $307M $78.8M
2024 $309M $55.4M $128M $70.1M
2025 $317M $47.1M $147M $59.6M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $81.1M $14.0M
Sep 2025 $82.0M $13.8M
Dec 2025 $81.6M $10.4M
Mar 2026 $80.1M $8.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.0%
Institutional Ownership100.3%
Short Float1.7%
% of All Funds Holding2.04%
Number of Funds Holding168

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$31.61Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$37.47Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$43.21Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$47.59Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$37.39Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$43.75Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$46.76Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$33.50 resistance 1.35x 0 months ago
$37.70 resistance 1.23x 2 months ago
$40.00 resistance 1.44x 4 months ago
$43.00 resistance 1.32x 6 months ago
$47.00 resistance 1.42x 10 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (82 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.12% 0.26% 53.66% 15.07% -7.84%
1 Day 0.62% 0.55% 56.10% 11.94% -13.26%
1 Week 0.16% 0.19% 52.44% 17.36% -15.25%
2 Weeks -0.07% -0.09% 48.78% 19.60% -20.23%
1 Month 0.96% 0.72% 54.32% 25.13% -25.88%

Next earnings: July 11, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.1%52.4%21
Feb-0.5%52.4%21
Mar3.1%66.7%21
Apr-0.6%42.9%21
May0.2%55.0%20
Jun1.3%60.0%20
Jul0.0%55.0%20
Aug-0.1%60.0%20
Sep-0.6%40.0%20
Oct5.7%70.0%20
Nov0.8%45.0%20
Dec-0.4%42.9%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.00% 49.0% 966
Tuesday 0.04% 50.1% 1059
Wednesday -0.02% 48.0% 1059
Thursday 0.17% 52.3% 1038
Friday 0.04% 50.3% 1035

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 100.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.0%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value-$160,555.02
Net Shares Change-3,825
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings3
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Omiridis Anastasios EVP-CFO -$160,555.02 3 3 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-20 Omiridis Anastasios EVP-CFO -$50,141.87 Transaction at $40.21, now -23.4%
2025-11-10 Omiridis Anastasios EVP-CFO -$50,313.9 Transaction at $40.74, now -24.4%
2025-08-05 Omiridis Anastasios EVP-CFO -$60,099.25 Transaction at $44.75, now -31.2%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AMSF on Trend Edge →