AXSM — Axsome Therapeutics Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates AXSM Bullish with a Setup Score of 48, net conviction 56, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score48
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction56
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Axsome Therapeutics Inc

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and delivers novel therapies for the management of central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's commercial product portfolio includes Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion), a N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor antagonist, sigma-1 receptor agonist, aminoketone, and CYP2D6 inhibitor indicated for the treatment of major depressive disorder in adults; Sunosi (so… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$248.95
Market Cap$12.57B
Float43.6M
Shares Outstanding51.5M
P/E (Forward)333.33
Price/Sales (TTM)17.75
vs. Analyst Target+11.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-26.59%
Operating Margin (TTM)-32.83%
Revenue (TTM)$708M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$276.47 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 N/A -$103M -$77,718 -$100M
2021 $8.8M -$135M -$1.2M -$124M
2022 $50.0M -$187M $44.8M -$175M
2023 $271M -$239M $245M -$225M
2024 $386M -$287M $352M -$273M
2025 $638M -$183M $591M -$168M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $150M -$48.0M
Sep 2025 $171M -$47.2M
Dec 2025 $196M -$28.6M
Mar 2026 $191M -$64.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership15.4%
Institutional Ownership76.5%
Short Float7.5%
% of All Funds Holding4.68%
Number of Funds Holding385

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$238.85Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$181.26Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$145.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$103.20Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$192.22Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$151.17Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$115.28Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$208.00 support 1.25x 1 months ago
$172.00 support 1.14x 2 months ago
$150.00 support 1.02x 6 months ago
$86.00 support 1.53x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (42 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.10% -0.48% 35.71% 6.52% -4.09%
1 Day 0.06% 0.11% 50.00% 11.69% -14.73%
1 Week -0.90% -1.07% 45.24% 21.38% -23.20%
2 Weeks 0.77% -0.47% 50.00% 44.48% -21.56%
1 Month 4.47% -0.54% 48.78% 106.57% -43.29%

Next earnings: August 3, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan7.4%36.4%11
Feb-3.7%18.2%11
Mar5.6%36.4%11
Apr15.8%72.7%11
May-3.6%36.4%11
Jun11.7%63.6%11
Jul-3.0%50.0%10
Aug5.3%60.0%10
Sep-2.0%50.0%10
Oct1.2%50.0%10
Nov15.4%70.0%10
Dec19.0%72.7%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.77% 48.3% 499
Tuesday 0.30% 50.0% 550
Wednesday 0.13% 47.0% 547
Thursday -0.11% 46.0% 537
Friday 0.28% 49.9% 535

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 76.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 15.4%

Founder-led management: Herriot Tabuteau (Founder, Chairman, CEO & President)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings27
Net Value-$120M
Net Shares Change-155,860
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings16
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
TABUTEAU HERRIOT Chief Executive Officer -$23.4M 2 N/A
JEFFS ROGER -$13.4M 3 N/A
Coleman Mark -$7.8M 3 1 buy
Pizzie Nick Chief Financial Officer -$7.8M 1 N/A
Jacobson Mark L. Chief Operating Officer -$1.0M 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-26 – 2025-09-09 5 3 -$14.2M
2026-01-23 – 2026-02-02 3 3 -$8.8M 3 C-suite
2026-06-02 – 2026-06-11 6 5 -$24.0M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-09-09 Coleman Mark +$200,466.315 Transaction at $127.28, now +95.6%
2025-08-29 JEFFS ROGER -$7.3M Transaction at $121.72, now +104.5%
2025-09-02 JEFFS ROGER -$1.7M Transaction at $123.68, now +101.3%
2025-08-26 JEFFS ROGER -$4.4M Transaction at $120.05, now +107.4%
2026-06-02 Coleman Mark -$4.0M Transaction at $229.20, now +8.6%
2026-07-01 TABUTEAU HERRIOT Chief Executive Officer -$11.7M Transaction at $122.60, now +103.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Axsome Therapeutics Inc (AXSM) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AXSM on Trend Edge →