Trend Edge gauges the health of the broad market with a suite of breadth indicators — each with the latest AI Consult analysis — so you can read the tide before acting on individual stock setups. For the per-stock Setup Score methodology, see About.
Net new 52-week highs versus new lows — a read on whether market participation is broadening or narrowing.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: The 52-Week Highs to Lows Ratio sits mildly positive at 6.9%, above three flat moving averages, but failed to confirm SP-500's fresh higher high.
Breadth Freshness: Matured — breadth has chopped sideways for 17 weeks below its April peak while the tape made new highs, a narrowing, late-cycle advance.
Sector Insights: Financial Services, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Real Estate lead with positive breadth; Technology, Basic Materials, Industrials and Utilities lag negatively, Energy freshly improving.
Industry Insights: Medical Devices, Medical Instruments, Banks-Regional, Packaged Foods and Restaurants show most new highs; Semiconductors, Solar, Electronic Components and Trucking make persistent new lows.
What This Means: Participation is adequate but no longer broadening—favor leadership in financials, healthcare devices and consumer names while avoiding semiconductor and transport weakness.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: The 52-Week Highs to Lows Ratio sits mildly positive at 6.9%, above three flat moving averages, but failed to confirm SP-500's fresh higher high.
Breadth Freshness: Matured — breadth has chopped sideways for 17 weeks below its April peak while the tape made new highs, a narrowing, late-cycle advance.
Sector Insights: Financial Services, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Real Estate lead with positive breadth; Technology, Basic Materials, Industrials and Utilities lag negatively, Energy freshly improving.
Industry Insights: Medical Devices, Medical Instruments, Banks-Regional, Packaged Foods and Restaurants show most new highs; Semiconductors, Solar, Electronic Components and Trucking make persistent new lows.
What This Means: Participation is adequate but no longer broadening—favor leadership in financials, healthcare devices and consumer names while avoiding semiconductor and transport weakness.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Market-wide read: the 52-Week Highs to Lows Ratio is modestly positive (6.9%, higher than 68% of its own history) and sits above flat 10-, 40- and 80-week averages, so more stocks are hitting yearly highs than lows — but only barely, and the trend has gone nowhere for four months. The decisive fact is the divergence: SP-500 just printed a clear higher high while breadth stayed roughly flat versus its peak of 17 weeks ago (+11.6% in April), so the advance is being carried by fewer names — classic strong tape, weak internals. The breadth stage flipped to a slight bullish lean only one week ago after a two-week bearish lean, which is noise inside a 17-week consolidation rather than a genuine new upswing. There is no washout to recover from (last extreme low -37% was 71 weeks back) and no climax to fear either, so this is a mid-to-late, aging breadth cycle that argues for holding quality leadership rather than adding aggressive risk. What would change it: breadth breaking above the April +11.6% pivot toward the 15%+ zone would restore a confirming, broadening advance; a drop back below zero with Technology laggards widening would turn this bearish. Leadership evidence: Financial Services is entrenched at the top (top-3 in 8 of 12 weeks) with Banks-Regional similarly long-tenured — durable but aging. Fresh positive entrants include Waste Management, Internet Retail, Information Technology Services and Banks-Diversified, plus Energy which has just rotated up out of the bottom band. On the weak side, Semiconductors, Semiconductor Equipment & Materials and Electronic Components have been persistent bottom-dwellers, dragging Technology to the worst sector score; Basic Materials has been in the bottom band 11 of 12 weeks. Notably, cyclically-sensitive Trucking, Integrated Freight & Logistics, Engineering & Construction, Lodging and REIT-Hotel & Motel are newly breaking down, a fresh bearish signal in economically sensitive groups. SECTORS: Financial Services | bullish | cyclical:extended | strongest breadth score 10.8, top-3 in 8 of 12 weeks — entrenched leadership Consumer Cyclical | bullish | cyclical:extended | score 6.4, top-3 in 7 of 12 weeks Communication Services | bullish | cyclical:fresh | score 4.5, top-3 in only 5 of 12 weeks — newer entrant Real Estate | bullish | cyclical:extended | score 3.8 but recently rotated out of the top band after 7 of 12 weeks Energy | bullish | cyclical:fresh | positive 2.5 after being bottom-3 in 10 of 12 weeks — clear fresh inflection Technology | bearish | cyclical:extended | worst sector at -3.3, dragged by long-tenured semiconductor lows Basic Materials | bearish | cyclical:extended | -2.4 with bottom-3 in 11 of 12 weeks — entrenched laggard Utilities | bearish | cyclical:extended | -2.2, recently bottom-3 in 7 of 12 weeks Industrials | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -2.3, only 2 of 12 weeks in bottom band — newly deteriorating INDUSTRIES: Medical Devices | bullish | cyclical:fresh | highest score 13.2, top-10 in 5 of 12 weeks Medical Instruments & Supplies | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 12.7, top-10 in 5 of 12 weeks Banks-Regional | bullish | cyclical:extended | 12.4 with top-10 in 9 of 12 weeks — long-tenured leader Packaged Foods | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 12.2, top-10 in only 4 of 12 weeks — defensive new-high cluster Restaurants | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 11.1, top-10 in 4 of 12 weeks Waste Management | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 10.8, first week in the top band Information Technology Services | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 10.2, top-10 in 2 of 12 weeks — rare Technology bright spot Banks-Diversified | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 9.9, newly in top band Internet Retail | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 9.7, first week in top band Insurance Brokers | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 9.4, top-10 in 4 of 12 weeks Semiconductors | bearish | cyclical:extended | worst score -15.1, bottom-10 in 8 of 12 weeks Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | bearish | cyclical:extended | -10.1, bottom-10 in 6 of 12 weeks Electronic Components | bearish | cyclical:extended | -11.9, bottom-10 in 6 of 12 weeks Solar | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -12.1, only 2 of 12 weeks in bottom band Trucking | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -11.2, newly breaking down Engineering & Construction | bearish | cyclical:extended | -9.5, bottom-10 in 5 of 12 weeks Integrated Freight & Logistics | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -9.2, first week in bottom band REIT-Hotel & Motel | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -8.6, newly in bottom band Lodging | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -8.5, first week in bottom band Chemicals | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -8.2, bottom-10 in 2 of 12 weeks ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Share of stocks whose faster moving average has crossed above (gold) or below (death) their slower moving average — a market-wide trend regime gauge.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Bullish setups (27.2%) top bearish (15.5%) by 11.6 points, but momentum is flat and breadth failed to confirm SP-500's fresh high.
Breadth Freshness: matured — no fresh 5-week turn, and cyclical breadth has stalled 11 weeks below its prior peak while SP-500 makes new highs, a late, narrowing advance.
Sector Insights: Energy, Financial Services and Industrials lead with large, rising positive spreads; Utilities and Real Estate lag with negative, still-falling breadth, Technology mixed.
Industry Insights: Banks-Diversified, Banks-Regional, Staffing, Oil & Gas Midstream and Marine Shipping lead; Solar, REIT-Mortgage, Utilities-Renewable and hotel/retail REITs lag with deteriorating breadth.
What This Means: Internals remain net-positive but stalling as the advance narrows into banks, energy and industrials, favoring selective exposure over broad index risk.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Bullish setups (27.2%) top bearish (15.5%) by 11.6 points, but momentum is flat and breadth failed to confirm SP-500's fresh high.
Breadth Freshness: matured — no fresh 5-week turn, and cyclical breadth has stalled 11 weeks below its prior peak while SP-500 makes new highs, a late, narrowing advance.
Sector Insights: Energy, Financial Services and Industrials lead with large, rising positive spreads; Utilities and Real Estate lag with negative, still-falling breadth, Technology mixed.
Industry Insights: Banks-Diversified, Banks-Regional, Staffing, Oil & Gas Midstream and Marine Shipping lead; Solar, REIT-Mortgage, Utilities-Renewable and hotel/retail REITs lag with deteriorating breadth.
What This Means: Internals remain net-positive but stalling as the advance narrows into banks, energy and industrials, favoring selective exposure over broad index risk.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Market-wide read: the gold/death cross lens is constructively positive but decidedly stale. Roughly 27% of stocks sit in fully bullish 10/40-week setups versus 15.5% in bearish ones, a +11.6 point net spread sitting around the 63rd percentile of its own history — comfortably above average, not extreme. The problem is the clocks: both the fast 5-week and slow 10-week trends for gold AND death cross ratios are flat, so there is no fresh inflection in either direction, and the divergence block is explicit — SP-500 just made a clear higher high while the bullish-minus-bearish spread failed to exceed its peak from about 11 weeks ago. That is textbook narrowing participation: strong tape, weak internals. The one genuine positive is the death cross ratio at 13-week lows, meaning damage is not spreading beneath the surface — this is a narrowing, not a breakdown, which is why the rating is Neutral rather than Bearish. Leadership is cyclical/value-tilted: financials (entrenched, top-3 all 12 weeks) and energy plus industrials (both freshly emerged, rising on both clocks) carry the spread, while rate-sensitive real estate, utilities and renewables remain the persistent damage zone. What would change it: a 5-week upturn in the gold cross ratio alongside a new spread high would restore confirmation and flip this to bullish; a rise in the death cross ratio off its 13-week low with financials' 5-week rolling over would turn it bearish. SECTORS: Financial Services | bullish | cyclical:extended, swing:fresh | +31.2% spread, rising both clocks, top-3 all 12 weeks — entrenched, aging leadership Energy | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | +25.2% spread rising on both clocks, only 3 of 12 weeks in top 3 — newly emerged Industrials | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | +12.9% spread, rising 5w and 10w, top-3 in 5 of 12 weeks Consumer Cyclical | bullish | swing:fresh | modest +4.2% spread but rising on both clocks Healthcare | neutral | cyclical:fresh | +7.6% spread, 10-week rising but 5-week flat — improving slowly, stalling near term Technology | neutral | swing:fresh, cyclical:extended | barely positive +2.0%, 5-week turning up but 10-week still falling; was bottom-3 in 5 of 12 weeks Utilities | bearish | cyclical:extended | -1.9% spread falling on both clocks, bottom-3 in 6 of 12 weeks Real Estate | bearish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | -3.3% spread deteriorating on both clocks, only recently in bottom-3 Communication Services | neutral | swing:fresh | -3.9% spread still negative and bottom-3 half the period, but 5-week turning up INDUSTRIES: Banks-Diversified | bullish | cyclical:extended, swing:fresh | +95.0% spread, rising both clocks, top-10 all 12 weeks — extremely stretched level Banks-Regional | bullish | cyclical:extended | +78.9% spread, top-10 all 12 weeks, but 5-week now falling — leadership aging Staffing & Employment Services | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | +71.4% spread rising both clocks, top-10 only 4 of 12 weeks Oil & Gas Midstream | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | +50.0% spread rising both clocks, top-10 just 1 of 12 weeks — newest leadership Marine Shipping | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | +44.4% spread rising both clocks, top-10 only 2 of 12 weeks Solar | bearish | cyclical:extended | -50.0% spread falling on both clocks, bottom-10 in 4 of 12 weeks REIT-Mortgage | bearish | cyclical:extended | -43.6% spread deteriorating on both clocks, bottom-10 half the period Utilities-Renewable | bearish | cyclical:extended | -31.2% spread falling on both clocks, persistent laggard REIT-Hotel & Motel | bearish | swing:fresh | -6.7% spread newly deteriorating, bottom-10 only 1 of 12 weeks REIT-Retail | bearish | swing:fresh | -3.8% spread, freshly rolling over on both clocks ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Accumulation versus distribution pressure across the market, read from price and volume behavior.
Rating: Bullish
Key Evidence: The Advance-Decline Line is rising above its 10-, 40- and 80-week averages, showing volume-backed buying dominating selling. It also sits higher than at the prior index peak, confirming the market's advance rather than lagging it.
Supply/Demand Freshness: Swing clock is mid-cycle: the last big accumulation surge came seven weeks ago and the washout lows twenty-plus weeks back, so buying pressure is steady rather than freshly spiking. Cyclical clock is genuinely young: the 80-week trend only turned up five weeks ago and the bullish stage began four weeks ago, with the line just 0.6% to 2.8% above its averages — not stretched. The 40-week uptrend, rising eight months, is the one maturing element, and there is no negative divergence dragging on freshness.
What This Means: Broad, volume-confirmed accumulation supports staying long, with a young cyclical uptrend leaving room for further upside.
Rating: Bullish
Key Evidence: The Advance-Decline Line is rising above its 10-, 40- and 80-week averages, showing volume-backed buying dominating selling. It also sits higher than at the prior index peak, confirming the market's advance rather than lagging it.
Supply/Demand Freshness: Swing clock is mid-cycle: the last big accumulation surge came seven weeks ago and the washout lows twenty-plus weeks back, so buying pressure is steady rather than freshly spiking. Cyclical clock is genuinely young: the 80-week trend only turned up five weeks ago and the bullish stage began four weeks ago, with the line just 0.6% to 2.8% above its averages — not stretched. The 40-week uptrend, rising eight months, is the one maturing element, and there is no negative divergence dragging on freshness.
What This Means: Broad, volume-confirmed accumulation supports staying long, with a young cyclical uptrend leaving room for further upside.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== The indicator's own trend is unambiguously constructive. The cumulative Advance-Decline Line at $2378.46 sits above all three measurable moving averages — 10-week ($2363.25, rising 10 weeks), 40-week ($2342.69, rising 35 weeks) and 80-week ($2313.13, rising only 5 weeks). That stacking is the textbook bullish alignment, and critically the extensions are small: 0.6%, 1.5% and 2.8% above the fast, slow and cyclical averages respectively. Nothing here is stretched or climactic; the line is advancing in an orderly, sustainable fashion rather than blowing off. Trend age is mixed but tilts young. The 80-week (cyclical) average only flipped up five weeks ago and the formal bullish stage classification began four weeks ago, replacing a nineteen-week choppy phase that ran from early April to late July. That is a fresh cyclical regime change — the long-cycle clock has barely started ticking. The 40-week average, rising for roughly eight months, is the most mature component and is the one to watch for eventual rollover, but eight months is not extreme for a durable accumulation cycle. On the weekly building blocks (the swing clock): the highest recent readings were +20.4% seventeen weeks ago (top 5% of the last six months) and +19.1% seven weeks ago (top 10%). The mirror image is the pair of washout lows at -19.0% twenty-one and twenty-two weeks ago, the deeper of which ranked in the bottom 1% — a genuine capitulation in volume-backed selling. The sequence is textbook: heavy distribution climax in the spring, sharp accumulation surges through the following months, and now a period of no extremes at all. That means current weekly ratios are mid-range — buying pressure is persistent but not frenzied. Neither an exhaustion signal nor a fresh ignition spark; the move is in its middle innings on the swing clock while still early on the cyclical clock. The divergence read is clean and supportive. At the index's current high, the Advance-Decline Line stands higher than it did at the prior peak — volume-confirmed buying is participating in the rally rather than narrowing behind it. There is no bearish non-confirmation to discount freshness, which is the single most important reason to take the bullish rating at face value rather than treating it as a late-stage grind. Structural caveat: the pivot analysis is thin (one confirmed low, 334 weeks ago, with the line up 16.9% from it) and there is insufficient data for a 200-week secular average, so long-term pivot classification carries no information. Read the trend and divergence evidence, not the pivot structure. What would change the read: a rollover in the 10-week average or a close back below it would be the first crack; loss of the 40-week would signal the eight-month accumulation cycle is ending. Fresh weekly ratios pushing below -15% to -19% would mark renewed distribution pressure. Most importantly, if the index makes a new high while the Advance-Decline Line fails to exceed its current level, that non-confirmation would flag narrowing conviction and cut freshness sharply — though even then the rating would move to Neutral, not Bearish, unless the line itself began falling. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Aggregated insider buying versus selling across the market, from SEC filings.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Insider buying breadth sits near the 8th percentile of its own history and has rolled over from a spring uptick. Selling is also thinning, with scheduled selling only modestly elevated and cooling.
Sentiment Freshness: matured — the earlier buying impulse peaked roughly two months ago and has faded steadily; no fresh turn, no accumulation into weakness, a late and stale positioning picture.
What This Means: Insiders are disengaged rather than fearful or greedy, offering no timing edge in either direction here.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Insider buying breadth sits near the 8th percentile of its own history and has rolled over from a spring uptick. Selling is also thinning, with scheduled selling only modestly elevated and cooling.
Sentiment Freshness: matured — the earlier buying impulse peaked roughly two months ago and has faded steadily; no fresh turn, no accumulation into weakness, a late and stale positioning picture.
What This Means: Insiders are disengaged rather than fearful or greedy, offering no timing edge in either direction here.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== LENS-BY-LENS Net breadth: current 10-week reading -0.1624, which is the 49th percentile of its own 22-year record — dead average. Trajectory has genuinely improved over the quarter (-0.180 → -0.240 trough → -0.162), but the improvement is low-quality: it came from sellers withdrawing faster than buyers, not from buyers stepping up. Latest week: 158 net-buying companies vs 313 net-selling out of 471 active. Buyer participation: 2.02% of the universe net buying — the 8th percentile of its own history, i.e. among the most depressed buy-side breadth readings on record. Trajectory is the key story: buyers built from 2.57% to a peak of 3.06% about seven weeks ago, then declined in a straight line (2.98, 2.85, 2.51, 2.15, 2.05, 2.02). This is a lens rolling over hard, not turning up. This alone rules out any bottom-side signal — the calibration says major lows carried buyer-participation deviation readings in the 76th–99th percentile range; we are at the opposite pole. Seller participation: 3.27%, the 38th percentile — slightly below its own norm, and falling steadily from a 5.03% peak (5.03 → 4.85 → 4.43 → 3.82 → 3.44 → 3.31 → 3.27). Sellers thinning would normally be a mild bottom-side positive, but here it is happening alongside buyers thinning even faster, so the honest read is overall insider disengagement — total activity contracting on both sides — rather than accumulation. Dollar ratio: -0.6998, the 30th percentile — conviction-sized discretionary money is meaningfully sell-tilted versus its own norm. It does not disagree with the depressed buyer count; big money is not quietly buying behind a thin crowd. If anything it is the second-weakest lens after buyer participation, so there is no hidden bullish divergence between dollars and company counts. Planned sellers: 4.57%, the 61st percentile — modestly above its own norm but nowhere near froth. Trajectory peaked at 5.52% and has cooled to 4.57%. For reference, the froth calibration is the 96th percentile (late 2021) and washed-out is the 13th (2022 low). At the 61st percentile and easing, this is a mild "fully-priced, complacent" tint, not a top signal. AGREEMENT / SPLIT The lenses mostly agree on one thing: insiders are stepping back from both sides. Net breadth (49th percentile) and planned sellers (61st) are near neutral; buyer participation (8th) and the dollar ratio (30th) are weak. Nothing is stretched to a historically actionable extreme in either direction. The two-way contraction is why the improving net-breadth line should not be read as bullish — it is arithmetic from vanishing sellers, not conviction buying. For a bearish read the framework requires several lenses agreeing on heavy selling AND stretched scheduled-selling enrollment. We have neither: seller participation is below its own norm and scheduled selling is only mildly elevated and cooling. So the correct read is Neutral, with a faint complacency tint from the still-above-average scheduled-selling enrollment and the sell-tilted discretionary dollars. DIVERGENCE VS THE TAPE No SP-500 context was supplied in this report, so I cannot claim an insider-vs-market divergence in either direction. What I can say is that there is no sign of insiders accumulating into weakness — the suite's most reliable single signal — because buy-side breadth is at the low end of its historical range and still falling. FRESHNESS / TIMING Matured. The one constructive impulse in this dataset — buyers rising from 2.57% to 3.06% and net breadth improving off -0.240 — crested roughly seven weeks ago and has since reversed decisively. Planned-seller enrollment also crested and is cooling. There is no lens that just turned. This is an aging, rolling-over picture with no early-cycle characteristic, which argues against expecting a durable insider-driven inflection from here. Note the timing read does not change direction: it simply says nothing here is early. HISTORICAL CALIBRATION Every major low since 2004 (2008, 2009, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2025) featured buyer-participation deviation readings in the 76th–99th percentile band with sellers all but vanishing. We are at the 8th percentile on buyers — categorically not that setup. On the froth side, the marker is scheduled-selling enrollment near the mid-90s percentile; at the 61st and easing, we are far from that too. The suite is simply in its uninformative middle. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE READ Turn bullish: buyer participation reversing higher for three-plus consecutive weeks off this depressed base toward the 70s-plus percentile of its own history, ideally with the dollar ratio improving toward zero and sellers staying thin — most powerfully if that happens while the index is falling. Turn bearish-cautious: scheduled-selling enrollment re-accelerating back above the 5.5% area and pushing toward the 90th percentile of its own history, together with seller participation climbing back above its norm and the dollar ratio deteriorating further. Absent either, this stays a stand-aside signal and other inputs should carry the position. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===How heavily institutions are positioned, from our proprietary SEC 13-F fund-holdings dataset.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Every market-cap median participation trend is flat, yet the large-small gap sits near a record low with small-cap ownership at a two-year high. Offsetting that, large-cap concentration has risen for thirteen straight quarters to near a record high, and four sectors sit near record-low participation.
Sector & Size Insights: Strongest signals are Healthcare (three-year-high participation, gap at a four-year low), Technology and Basic Materials (multi-year highs, narrowing gaps), while Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate and Financial Services sit near record-low ownership and Utilities shows defensive crowding at a five-year-high internal gap. Institutions are quietly broadening into small caps (two-year high) with the overall gap near a record low — a modest risk-on lean — but flat large- and mid-cap medians plus record-high large-cap concentration keep the net read balanced rather than bullish.
Participation Cycle: CYCLICAL: freshly turned narrowing gaps in Healthcare, Technology, Industrials and Basic Materials; SECULAR: stretched, with the overall gap near a record low and large-cap concentration extended after thirteen quarters.
Data Freshness: Figures reflect Q1 2026 13F filings; the cycle stage is awaiting new filings, with Q2 2026 data due imminently and readings likely to shift.
What This Means: Position for selective rotation into small- and mid-cap Healthcare, Technology and Materials while avoiding record-low-ownership Real Estate, Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Every market-cap median participation trend is flat, yet the large-small gap sits near a record low with small-cap ownership at a two-year high. Offsetting that, large-cap concentration has risen for thirteen straight quarters to near a record high, and four sectors sit near record-low participation.
Sector & Size Insights: Strongest signals are Healthcare (three-year-high participation, gap at a four-year low), Technology and Basic Materials (multi-year highs, narrowing gaps), while Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate and Financial Services sit near record-low ownership and Utilities shows defensive crowding at a five-year-high internal gap. Institutions are quietly broadening into small caps (two-year high) with the overall gap near a record low — a modest risk-on lean — but flat large- and mid-cap medians plus record-high large-cap concentration keep the net read balanced rather than bullish.
Participation Cycle: CYCLICAL: freshly turned narrowing gaps in Healthcare, Technology, Industrials and Basic Materials; SECULAR: stretched, with the overall gap near a record low and large-cap concentration extended after thirteen quarters.
Data Freshness: Figures reflect Q1 2026 13F filings; the cycle stage is awaiting new filings, with Q2 2026 data due imminently and readings likely to shift.
What This Means: Position for selective rotation into small- and mid-cap Healthcare, Technology and Materials while avoiding record-low-ownership Real Estate, Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Market-wide, this is a flat-trend, extreme-status tape: no market-cap median participation trend is moving, so the signal lives entirely in the STATUS extremes and the risk-appetite gaps. The headline positive is risk appetite — the overall large-small gap at 8.55% sits near a record low and small-cap median participation (0.94%) is at a two-year high, meaning institutions own the typical small stock more broadly than at any point in two years. That is a genuine, if slow, risk-on broadening. The offset is real: large-cap concentration (3.11%) has risen for thirteen consecutive quarters to near a record high, so within big caps a shrinking handful of names hoards attention while the median large cap goes nowhere. Small-cap concentration at a three-year low corroborates that the small-cap broadening is genuinely broad, not one or two darlings — the cleanest bullish detail in the report. Sector evidence: Healthcare is the standout accumulation case — total participation at a three-year high, small-cap Healthcare at a three-year high, and the sector's large-small gap falling to a four-year low, i.e., money moving down-cap into a sector whose large-cap ownership is near a record low (classic early-rotation footprint). Technology shows total at a two-year high, small-cap Tech at a two-year high, and a freshly falling gap. Basic Materials totals a four-year high with small-cap participation at a five-year high and the gap falling two quarters, though mid-cap Materials at a record low makes it uneven. Industrials has the longest-running narrowing gap (three quarters) with small caps at a one-year high, but concentration at a record high means the sector-level bid is name-selective. Utilities is the two-sided case: highest participation of any sector (4.34%, three-year high) but driven by large caps at a five-year high with the internal gap at a five-year high and concentration rising six quarters — defensive crowding, not healthy rotation, and therefore not a clean long signal. Bearish flow: Communication Services (total near record low, gap at a two-year high, concentration at a three-year high — narrow, defensive, thin ownership), Consumer Cyclical (total and small-cap near record lows with concentration at a four-year high), Real Estate (total and small-cap near record lows, concentration at a record high and rising), and Energy, where all three cap tiers sit at or near record lows despite a one-year-high composite. Financial Services is genuinely split — total near record low but mid-cap at a two-year high and small-cap at a one-year high. What would change it: Q2 2026 filings land imminently. A further drop in the overall large-small gap plus a break higher in small-cap median would upgrade this to bullish; a re-widening gap with large-cap concentration still climbing would flip it bearish (flight to safety into a handful of mega caps). Note the accumulation calls (Healthcare, Materials) sit in sectors with weak large-cap ownership — squeeze risk, do not short those. SECTORS: Healthcare | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | total participation 3-year high; large-small gap falling to 4-year low; small-cap 3-year high Technology | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | total 2-year high; gap falling 1 quarter; small-cap Tech at 2-year high Basic Materials | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | total 4-year high; small-cap 5-year high; gap falling 2 quarters; mid-cap record low caveat Industrials | bullish | cyclical:extended | gap falling 3 quarters, small-cap 1-year high, but concentration at record high Utilities | neutral | cyclical:extended, secular:extended | highest participation and 3-year high, yet large-cap 5-year high and gap 5-year high — defensive crowding Communication Services | bearish | secular:extended | total near record low; gap at 2-year high; concentration 3-year high Consumer Cyclical | bearish | secular:extended | total and small-cap near record lows; concentration 4-year high Real Estate | bearish | secular:extended | total and small-cap near record lows; concentration at record high and rising Energy | bearish | secular:extended | large, mid and small cap tiers all at or near record lows despite 1-year-high composite Financial Services | neutral | secular:extended | total near record low but mid-cap 2-year high and small-cap 1-year high ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Historical month-by-month tendencies for the broad market.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: In rising-trend markets like today's, August is mildly positive (+0.66% typical, 59% winners), but September is the year's weakest month. September in bull regimes returns essentially zero with only a 45% chance of gains, before October and November recover.
Seasonal Freshness: Entering — half of a modestly supportive August is already spent, and the calendar flips into September's well-documented stall, historically the weakest stretch of the year, within two weeks.
What This Means: Expect flat, choppy seasonal conditions into late September before the strong November–December window reopens.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: In rising-trend markets like today's, August is mildly positive (+0.66% typical, 59% winners), but September is the year's weakest month. September in bull regimes returns essentially zero with only a 45% chance of gains, before October and November recover.
Seasonal Freshness: Entering — half of a modestly supportive August is already spent, and the calendar flips into September's well-documented stall, historically the weakest stretch of the year, within two weeks.
What This Means: Expect flat, choppy seasonal conditions into late September before the strong November–December window reopens.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Regime matters here and the report confirms we are in a rising 20-month average environment, so the bull-market rows govern. Under those conditions the seasonal hierarchy is: December strongest (+2.02% median, 71% of years positive, the single best month in the entire dataset), then January (+1.68%, 63%) and November (+1.67%, 62%), with May and July next. The weak end is September (0.00% median, 45% win rate) and June (+0.15%, 52%). Note the divergence from all-history: across all conditions July looks like a co-leader (+1.60%) and September looks outright negative (-0.36%, 43%); in rising regimes July cools to +1.27% and September firms to merely flat rather than negative. In falling regimes September is genuinely ugly (-1.31%, 33% win rate) — that is not our regime, which materially softens the September warning. Path over the next one to three months: the remaining two weeks of August carry a mild, unremarkable tailwind — August in bull regimes is the fifth-weakest month, positive but small. September is the trough: no median gain and a sub-coin-flip hit rate, historically a month of drift, chop and headline sensitivity rather than a reliable drawdown month in bull trends. October rebuilds modestly (+0.83%, 56%), and then November–December delivers the strongest two-month stretch of the calendar in rising regimes, with December's 71% win rate the highest reading anywhere in the table. Where we sit in the window: mid-August, so roughly half of a mediocre month is behind us and the handoff into the weakest month of the year is imminent — this is an entering read on a seasonal headwind, not a fading one. Practically, that argues against adding aggressive new seasonal length here and favors patience into late September, where the setup for the November–December window becomes attractive. Sample sizes are healthy (roughly 70-75 observations per month in the rising regime), so these tendencies are reasonably robust, though the September signal is a stall rather than a directional short case. What would change the read: a break of the 20-month average to the downside would flip us to the falling-regime rows, where September deepens to a -1.31% median with only a one-in-three win rate and the seasonal case turns clearly bearish. Conversely, once late September passes without damage, the seasonal skew turns decisively constructive and the rating should shift bullish for the fourth-quarter run. Seasonality is a mild tilt, not a trigger — it should be weighted behind trend and breadth evidence in any final call. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Aggregate retail-investor positioning and sentiment across the market.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Retail sentiment sits at 0.898, mild greed but squarely mid-range and far from either extreme that triggers contrarian signals. The 10-week average of 0.894 is drifting slightly toward caution after April's extreme-fear spike faded four months ago.
Sentiment Freshness: no extreme — sentiment has been chopping around neutral for roughly three months, so no fresh contrarian trigger exists in either direction.
What This Means: Retail mood offers no actionable edge here; wait for a genuine fear or greed extreme before acting on this indicator.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Retail sentiment sits at 0.898, mild greed but squarely mid-range and far from either extreme that triggers contrarian signals. The 10-week average of 0.894 is drifting slightly toward caution after April's extreme-fear spike faded four months ago.
Sentiment Freshness: no extreme — sentiment has been chopping around neutral for roughly three months, so no fresh contrarian trigger exists in either direction.
What This Means: Retail mood offers no actionable edge here; wait for a genuine fear or greed extreme before acting on this indicator.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== The current reading of 0.898 is mildly on the greed side of the 1.00 dividing line, but that is cosmetic — what matters is distance to the empirical decile bands, and this reading is nowhere near either. Extreme fear (the contrarian buy trigger) requires 1.313 or higher, which is about 0.42 points above where sentiment sits now; extreme greed (the contrarian sell trigger) requires 0.257 or lower, roughly 0.64 points below. So the reading is closer to the fear band than the greed band, and the 10-week average at 0.894 is rising, meaning the drift is very slowly back toward caution/fear rather than toward euphoria. That direction of travel is worth noting because if it continues it eventually produces a bullish contrarian setup, not a bearish one — but at the current pace that is many weeks away and could easily reverse. The 10-week average and the current reading are effectively on top of each other (current is only 0.4% above the average), which tells you sentiment has flatlined. The recent 26-week history confirms this: after a violent extreme-fear episode that peaked at 2.443 in mid-April — a genuinely rare panic reading, well past the 1.313 fear threshold and among the more extreme prints in the record — sentiment collapsed back through neutral by mid-May and has since oscillated in a tight 0.73–1.03 band for roughly three months, with a single one-week dip to 0.413 in early July that still did not reach the greed extreme. That April fear spike was the last actionable contrarian signal and it is now 16 weeks stale; whatever bullish contrarian edge it carried has long since been priced. The last true extreme greed print was 82 weeks ago in January 2025, so the greed side of the ledger is not remotely in play. Historically the reading sits around the 69th percentile of its own past, which sounds elevated but simply reflects that this indicator's distribution is heavily skewed — most of the time it prints in the low ranges, so a 0.898 lands surprisingly high in the ranking while still being firmly inside the non-actionable middle band. Do not read that percentile as a signal. The 52-week average of 1.023 and median of 0.918 also bracket the current print, another sign this is an ordinary, unremarkable reading. Bottom line: no contrarian signal, no timing trigger, and the honest call is neutral with this indicator sidelined. What would change the read: a push above 1.313 — especially a sharp one-to-two week jump from here — would be a fresh extreme-fear print and a genuine contrarian buy setup, and given the rising 10-week average that is the more plausible of the two paths. Conversely a fast slide below 0.257 would flag extreme greed and a contrarian sell warning, but that would require a dramatic move from current levels and there is no momentum pointing that way. Until one of those bands is breached, weight this input near zero and defer to other indicators. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Trends in new issuance — a gauge of risk appetite and late-cycle behavior.
New US listings over the last 12 months, split into traditional IPOs and SPACs (blank-check "Acquisition" companies).
| Month | Traditional IPOs | SPACs |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 25 | 9 |
| Nov 2025 | 11 | 8 |
| Dec 2025 | 16 | 14 |
| Jan 2026 | 12 | 19 |
| Feb 2026 | 17 | 23 |
| Mar 2026 | 7 | 7 |
| Apr 2026 | 16 | 10 |
| May 2026 | 19 | 16 |
| Jun 2026 | 25 | 10 |
| Jul 2026 | 16 | 13 |
| Aug 2026 | 9 | 4 |
| null-null | 94 | 0 |
Strong, actionable setups to start from — full list on the screener.
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.