Trend Edge gauges the health of the broad market with a suite of breadth indicators — each with the latest AI Consult analysis — so you can read the tide before acting on individual stock setups. For the per-stock Setup Score methodology, see About.
Net new 52-week highs versus new lows — a read on whether market participation is broadening or narrowing.
Rating: Bearish
Key Evidence: The New Highs to New Lows Ratio is -10.5%, meaning more stocks hit yearly lows than highs, sitting at 13-week lows below every moving average.
Breadth Freshness: middle-aged — The bearish stage is brand new and tracks the broad market, but this 23-week slide already sits in the weakest 12% of history.
Sector Insights: Energy, Communication Services and Basic Materials lead with Technology freshly recovering, while Real Estate, Financial Services and Healthcare lag with net new lows.
Industry Insights: Medical Instruments, Capital Markets and Security Services lead, while Biotechnology, Restaurants, Asset Management, Regulated Electric Utilities and Regional Banks suffer heavy new lows.
What This Means: Weakening participation means position traders should stay defensive, favor Energy and Communication leaders, and await a washout or moving-average reclaim before adding risk.
Rating: Bearish
Key Evidence: The New Highs to New Lows Ratio is -10.5%, meaning more stocks hit yearly lows than highs, sitting at 13-week lows below every moving average.
Breadth Freshness: middle-aged — The bearish stage is brand new and tracks the broad market, but this 23-week slide already sits in the weakest 12% of history.
Sector Insights: Energy, Communication Services and Basic Materials lead with Technology freshly recovering, while Real Estate, Financial Services and Healthcare lag with net new lows.
Industry Insights: Medical Instruments, Capital Markets and Security Services lead, while Biotechnology, Restaurants, Asset Management, Regulated Electric Utilities and Regional Banks suffer heavy new lows.
What This Means: Weakening participation means position traders should stay defensive, favor Energy and Communication leaders, and await a washout or moving-average reclaim before adding risk.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== **Market-wide read** The New Highs to New Lows Ratio is -10.5%, which puts it at a 13-week low. - It sits 1.4 weekly ranges below a falling 10-week average. - It sits 1.9 weekly ranges below a falling 40-week average. - It sits 1.7 weekly ranges below a flattening 80-week average. A formal bearish breadth stage began this week, after four weeks of choppy, bearish-leaning action. The near-term decline has now run 23 weeks from the +11.6% high. It has fully erased the rally that started from the -10.3% low 27 weeks ago and now marginally undercuts that low, a failed-recovery signature. The reading is higher than only about 12% of the indicator's own ~28-year history and is approaching the bottom-decile line of -12%. Even so, it is nowhere near the true capitulation seen 77 weeks ago at -37%. There is no divergence versus SP-500. Breadth is confirming a weak tape rather than masking hidden internal strength, so this is a genuine, broad-based deterioration. **Cycle timing** - The bearish stage itself is young. - The underlying decline is mid-cycle and not yet washed out. - That leaves room for further downside in participation before a classic breadth-washout buy signal forms. **Where the damage is concentrated** The laggard industries are among the most populous in the market: - Biotechnology (518 stocks) - Regional Banks (320 stocks) - Asset Management (232 stocks) This explains why the aggregate ratio is so negative. The leaders, by contrast, are small-to-mid groups of 9–87 stocks. The weakness has a clear rate- and credit-sensitive flavor: regional banks, credit services, asset management, mortgage and residential REITs, and regulated electric utilities. Speculative growth is also weak (biotech, solar). **Where leadership sits** Leadership is a mixed bag of three themes: - **Commodity/inflation hedges:** Energy, Basic Materials, Gold. - **Volatility/trading beneficiaries:** Capital Markets, Financial Data & Exchanges. - **Quality healthcare niches:** medical devices, diagnostics, specialty drugs. **Sector scores and splits** Sector-level dispersion is modest (-2.9 to +6.3), so industry signals carry more conviction than sector ones. Two sectors are split internally: - **Healthcare:** device, diagnostics and generics strength is overwhelmed by biotech's deep new lows. The net score is negative and the sector has only just dropped into the bottom band. - **Financials:** exchanges and capital markets are strong, while banks, asset managers and credit lenders are breaking down. Consumer Defensive has rotated out of the top band after leading 9 of 12 weeks, an aging defensive trade. Technology has climbed out of the bottom band after 8 of 12 weeks, a fresh but still weak improvement. **What would change the call** - **Bullish change:** a pivot higher that holds above -10.3%, followed by a reclaim of the 10-week average. That would convert this into a failed breakdown. - **Bullish alternative:** a capitulation flush toward -20% or lower, then a sharp upturn. That would start a fresh bullish breadth cycle. - **Bullish divergence:** SP-500 making lower lows while the ratio holds. - **Bearish continuation:** a push below -12% into the historical bottom decile with no divergence would extend the bearish case. SECTORS: Energy | bullish | cyclical:extended | top score 6.3, top-3 in 6 of 12 weeks, most durable current leader Communication Services | bullish | cyclical:fresh | score 5.3, top-3 4/12 weeks; Broadcasting strong but Internet Content weak Basic Materials | bullish | cyclical:fresh | score 3.0, newly entered top 3 (0 prior weeks), supported by Gold Technology | bullish | cyclical:fresh | weak-bullish 2.4, climbed out of bottom band after 8/12 weeks; Solar still a drag Consumer Defensive | bullish | cyclical:extended | weak-bullish 2.8, slipped from top band after 9/12 weeks, aging defensive leadership Real Estate | bearish | cyclical:extended | lowest score -2.9, bottom-3 5/12 weeks; mortgage and residential REITs at deep lows Financial Services | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -2.7, bottom-3 2/12; banks/asset managers/credit weak despite strong capital markets Healthcare | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -2.5, newly in bottom band (0 prior weeks); 518-stock biotech drag outweighs device/diagnostic strength INDUSTRIES: Medical Instruments & Supplies | bullish | cyclical:fresh | top score 11.5, top-10 4/12 weeks, 47 stocks Capital Markets | bullish | cyclical:extended | 10.4, top-10 5/12 weeks, 87 stocks Security & Protection Services | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 8.5, top-10 only 2/12 weeks, newly emerging Diagnostics & Research | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 8.0, top-10 3/12 weeks Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 7.5, top-10 4/12 weeks Drug Manufacturers-Specialty & Generic | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 7.2, top-10 4/12 weeks, 76 stocks Broadcasting | bullish | cyclical:extended | 6.4, top-10 5/12 weeks Gold | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 4.7, top-10 4/12 weeks, 52 stocks Discount Stores | bullish | cyclical:fresh | 4.0, top-10 1/12 weeks, small 9-stock group Biotechnology | bearish | cyclical:fresh | worst score -16.1, 518 stocks, bottom-10 3/12 weeks, largest drag on aggregate Restaurants | bearish | cyclical:extended | -15.3, bottom-10 5/12 weeks Asset Management | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -15.1, 232 stocks, bottom-10 2/12 weeks Utilities-Regulated Electric | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -14.6, bottom-10 4/12 weeks, rate-sensitive Banks-Regional | bearish | cyclical:extended | -14.0, 320 stocks, bottom-10 5/12 weeks, credit/rate stress REIT-Mortgage | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -13.7, newly in bottom 10 (1/12) REIT-Residential | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -13.3, newly in bottom 10 (1/12) Solar | bearish | cyclical:extended | -13.1, bottom-10 5/12 weeks Internet Content & Information | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -12.8, newly in bottom 10 (1/12), 66 stocks Credit Services | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -12.8, bottom-10 2/12 weeks ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Share of stocks whose faster moving average has crossed above (gold) or below (death) their slower moving average — a market-wide trend regime gauge.
Rating: Bearish
Key Evidence: Only 13.3% of stocks hold bullish gold crosses versus 26.2% in bearish death crosses; gold is falling, death rising, both at 13-week extremes.
Breadth Freshness: young — the fast 5-week death-cross trend just turned up, 10-week still flat, breadth confirms the broad tape: early deterioration, not yet at historical extremes.
Sector Insights: Energy leads (+13.7%, long-tenured but fading short-term), Basic Materials flat; Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical lag deeply, and every sector's 5-week trend is falling.
Industry Insights: Commodity plays lead (Gold, Copper, Oil & Gas E&P and Integrated all rising) while REIT-Mortgage, Building Materials, Regulated Electric Utilities, Specialty Insurance and Casinos lag sharply.
What This Means: Breadth is weakening early and broadly, so trim exposure and tighten stops, keeping only selective commodity longs in gold, copper, and oil producers.
Rating: Bearish
Key Evidence: Only 13.3% of stocks hold bullish gold crosses versus 26.2% in bearish death crosses; gold is falling, death rising, both at 13-week extremes.
Breadth Freshness: young — the fast 5-week death-cross trend just turned up, 10-week still flat, breadth confirms the broad tape: early deterioration, not yet at historical extremes.
Sector Insights: Energy leads (+13.7%, long-tenured but fading short-term), Basic Materials flat; Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical lag deeply, and every sector's 5-week trend is falling.
Industry Insights: Commodity plays lead (Gold, Copper, Oil & Gas E&P and Integrated all rising) while REIT-Mortgage, Building Materials, Regulated Electric Utilities, Specialty Insurance and Casinos lag sharply.
What This Means: Breadth is weakening early and broadly, so trim exposure and tighten stops, keeping only selective commodity longs in gold, copper, and oil producers.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== MARKET-WIDE READ: This lens is bearish and early. Current levels: - Only 13.3% of stocks are in bullish gold-cross setups, which is the 22nd percentile of the indicator's own history. - 26.2% are in bearish death-cross setups, the 78th percentile of its history. - The net spread (gold minus death) is -12.9%, the 21st percentile of its history. Direction on both clocks: - The gold-cross share is falling on both the 5-week and 10-week averages, so bullish participation is already eroding on the cyclical clock. - The death-cross share just turned up on the fast 5-week (21.4%) while the 10-week is still flat (19.9%). The swing clock has flipped bearish, and the cyclical death-side regime has not yet confirmed. - Both series sit at 13-week extremes: gold at lows, death at highs. That makes this a fresh, confirming move, not a stale one. Tape and freshness: - There is no breadth divergence versus the equal-weight broad tape (SP-500) over roughly 39 weeks. This is not a "strong tape, weak internals" setup; breadth and price are moving together, which makes the weakness more credible. - Readings are not yet stretched: the spread is at the 21st percentile, not a washout extreme. There is room for further deterioration before contrarian-bottom conditions appear. Leadership: - Leadership is narrow and commodity-driven. Energy is the only sector with a positive spread, and the top industries are gold, copper and oil producers, all rising on both clocks. - Rate-sensitive and defensive groups are among the weakest: Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Defensive are all deeply negative. This is not a defensive rotation but a broad deterioration with a real-asset/commodity pocket of strength. - Financial Services and Healthcare recently held top-3 leadership and have now broken down on both clocks. These are fresh rotations out of leadership. - Every sector's 5-week trend is falling, including Energy. Sector-level Energy is rolling over short-term even though its E&P and Integrated industries are still rising, which means other energy sub-groups are dragging and the commodity leadership is narrowing. What would change the read: - Bullish shift: the death-cross 5-week rolling back over and the gold-cross 5-week turning up would neutralize the swing signal. A positive divergence, with breadth improving while SP-500 weakens, would flag a bottoming process. - Bearish confirmation: the death-cross 10-week turning up would confirm the cyclical bear regime. - Energy's 10-week trend rolling over would remove the last sector-level leadership. SECTORS: Energy | bullish | swing:extended, cyclical:extended | only positive sector at +13.7%, 10-wk rising but 5-wk falling, top-3 for 9 of 12 weeks, so aging leadership Basic Materials | neutral | swing:extended | flat 0.0% spread, 10-wk rising / 5-wk falling; houses leaders Gold and Copper but also the worst industry, Building Materials Utilities | bearish | cyclical:extended | worst sector at -46.2%, falling on both clocks, bottom-3 for 8 of 12 weeks Real Estate | bearish | cyclical:extended | -29.1% spread, falling on both clocks, bottom-3 for 7 of 12 weeks Consumer Cyclical | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -25.6% spread, falling on both clocks, newer bottom-3 member (4 of 12 weeks) Consumer Defensive | bearish | swing:fresh | -22.1% spread, falling on both clocks; defensives offering no shelter Financial Services | bearish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | -7.1% spread, falling on both clocks, was top-3 for 7 of 12 weeks, a fresh breakdown from leadership Healthcare | bearish | swing:fresh | -9.5% spread, falling on both clocks, was top-3 for 5 of 12 weeks, rotated out of leadership INDUSTRIES: Gold | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | +26.9% spread, rising on both clocks, top-10 only 3 of 12 weeks, freshly emerging leader across 52 stocks Oil & Gas E&P | bullish | swing:fresh | +17.1% spread, rising on both clocks across a broad 76-stock group, top-10 for 6 of 12 weeks Copper | bullish | swing:fresh, cyclical:extended | +75.0% spread, rising on both clocks, but a thin 8-stock sample with a stretched reading Oil & Gas Integrated | bullish | cyclical:extended | +42.1% spread, rising on both clocks, top-10 for 7 of 12 weeks Diagnostics & Research | bullish | swing:extended, cyclical:extended | +39.0% spread, 5-wk flat / 10-wk rising, top-10 for 7 of 12 weeks; momentum stalling against a weak Healthcare sector REIT-Mortgage | bearish | cyclical:extended | -73.7% spread, falling on both clocks, bottom-10 all 12 of 12 weeks, entrenched laggard Building Materials | bearish | swing:fresh, cyclical:extended | worst-ranked at -68.8%, falling on both clocks, bottom-10 for 5 of 12 weeks Utilities-Regulated Electric | bearish | cyclical:extended | -50.0% spread, falling on both clocks, bottom-10 for 5 of 12 weeks, mirrors the weak Utilities sector Insurance-Specialty | bearish | swing:fresh, cyclical:fresh | -46.7% spread, falling on both clocks, bottom-10 only 2 of 12 weeks, a fresh breakdown Resorts & Casinos | bearish | cyclical:fresh | -47.1% spread, falling on both clocks, bottom-10 for 4 of 12 weeks, consumer-discretionary weakness spreading ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Accumulation versus distribution pressure across the market, read from price and volume behavior.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: The AD-Line slipped below its 10- and 40-week averages but holds above its rising 80-week, a mixed, rangebound picture of buying conviction. Last week's heavy-volume selling reading of -22.5% ranks in the bottom 10% since 1998, yet volume conviction still tracks the broader market.
Supply/Demand Freshness: Swing clock: fresh on the selling side; last week's distribution spike is a brand-new extreme, either a washout or the onset of heavier selling. Cyclical clock: mid-to-late; the 40-week uptrend is nine months old, the 80-week turned up only three months ago, and the 10-week is stalling. The line isn't stretched and still confirms the market; overall, a fresh selling jolt sits beneath an aging but intact longer-term uptrend.
What This Means: Buying conviction is paused, not broken; wait for renewed heavy-volume accumulation to reclaim the 10- and 40-week averages before adding position exposure.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: The AD-Line slipped below its 10- and 40-week averages but holds above its rising 80-week, a mixed, rangebound picture of buying conviction. Last week's heavy-volume selling reading of -22.5% ranks in the bottom 10% since 1998, yet volume conviction still tracks the broader market.
Supply/Demand Freshness: Swing clock: fresh on the selling side; last week's distribution spike is a brand-new extreme, either a washout or the onset of heavier selling. Cyclical clock: mid-to-late; the 40-week uptrend is nine months old, the 80-week turned up only three months ago, and the 10-week is stalling. The line isn't stretched and still confirms the market; overall, a fresh selling jolt sits beneath an aging but intact longer-term uptrend.
What This Means: Buying conviction is paused, not broken; wait for renewed heavy-volume accumulation to reclaim the 10- and 40-week averages before adding position exposure.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== The AD-Line's own trend is mixed, which is why the Rating is Neutral rather than Bullish or Bearish. At 2336.11 the line sits 1.3% below its 10-week average (2366.49), which has just gone flat after rising. It is 0.5% below its 40-week average (2348.83), which is still rising and has been for about 41 weeks (roughly nine months, a mature trend). It remains 0.8% above its 80-week average (2318.26), which turned up only about 12 weeks ago, a relatively young cyclical uptrend. There is not enough history for a 200-week read. The stage model has labeled the line bullish since early July 2026, after a choppy phase from April to July. However, the line now sits slightly below the level where that bullish stage began (about 2364). The bullish stage has netted essentially nothing so far. The line is also still inside the roughly 2311–2366 band that defined the prior choppy phase. The bigger picture is a slow grind: the line has risen only about 14.8% off its March 2020 low over 340 weeks. That is a persistent but low-velocity accumulation backdrop rather than a powerful demand trend. Extension is not a concern. The line is within about 1.3% of all three averages, so it is neither stretched to the upside nor washed out to the downside on a trend basis. The weekly accumulation/distribution extremes tell a see-saw story over the past six months. Heavy-volume buying readings came in at +20.4% (23 weeks ago) and +19.1% (13 weeks ago), both in the top 10% of all weekly readings since 1998. Distribution readings alternated with them, at -17.3% (19 weeks ago, within normal range) and now -22.5% last week. That latest reading is in the bottom 10% of history and is the deepest selling week in the 26-week window. It is meaningfully worse than the earlier -17.3% low. This alternation of buying and selling climaxes is consistent with a rotational, rangebound tape rather than one-sided accumulation. The fact that the most recent extreme is the most severe distribution week is the main near-term caution. Divergence versus SP-500 is clean. There has been no meaningful non-confirmation over roughly the last 39 weeks. Volume-backed participation has been tracking the market rather than lagging it, so there is no divergence-driven freshness penalty. Equally, there is no bullish divergence offering a leading signal. Reading the two clocks separately: - **Swing clock:** fresh, and pointed to the downside. A one-week-old, bottom-decile distribution spike is the freshest event on the board. Historically, such spikes are either capitulation-style washouts that precede a turn back up, or the first leg of a heavier distribution phase. Next week's follow-through is what distinguishes the two. - **Cyclical clock:** mid-to-late and softening at the margin. The 40-week uptrend is long in the tooth, the 10-week has lost upward momentum, and only the 80-week offers a relatively young supportive trend. The clocks disagree: a fresh selling shock sits beneath an aging but still-intact longer-term uptrend. **What would change the read:** - **Turn Bearish:** a weekly close below the 80-week average (about 2318, only 0.8% away), especially with the 10-week rolling over and the 40-week flattening. That would signal the AD-Line itself breaking down. Another bottom-decile distribution week would reinforce this. - **Turn Bullish:** a heavy-volume accumulation week (top-decile buying) that lifts the line back above the 10-week (about 2366) and 40-week averages. That would recast last week's selling as a washout within a continuing uptrend and refresh the swing clock on the buy side. - **Lower freshness further:** the emergence of a bearish divergence, with SP-500 making new highs while the AD-Line stalls. This would not by itself flip the Rating. For position traders, the stance is hold rather than add. Respect the 80-week average as the line in the sand, and let volume-confirmed buying re-emerge before increasing exposure. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Aggregated insider buying versus selling across the market, from SEC filings.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: The share of companies with insiders buying sits at the 50th percentile of its own history, far below the 76th–99th range seen at every major market low. Selling is only mildly elevated (65th percentile) and pre-scheduled selling is subdued (36th percentile), so there is no sign of frothy, fully priced conditions.
Sentiment Freshness: middle-aged. Insider buying has risen for six straight weeks, but selling is rising alongside it, so net insider breadth is flat near its long-run norm. This is a two-sided pickup in activity rather than fresh accumulation, placing the cycle in its middle stretch.
What This Means: Insiders are neither flagging a buying opportunity nor warning of a top, so this read offers no directional edge for position trades right now.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: The share of companies with insiders buying sits at the 50th percentile of its own history, far below the 76th–99th range seen at every major market low. Selling is only mildly elevated (65th percentile) and pre-scheduled selling is subdued (36th percentile), so there is no sign of frothy, fully priced conditions.
Sentiment Freshness: middle-aged. Insider buying has risen for six straight weeks, but selling is rising alongside it, so net insider breadth is flat near its long-run norm. This is a two-sided pickup in activity rather than fresh accumulation, placing the cycle in its middle stretch.
What This Means: Insiders are neither flagging a buying opportunity nor warning of a top, so this read offers no directional edge for position trades right now.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Overall read: Neutral. Every lens sits near the middle of its own 22-year history. Nothing is stretched in either direction, and the lenses do not combine into a bottom-side or top-side signal. **Net breadth** (companies with net insider buying minus net selling) - The 10-week reading is -0.1445, at the 53rd percentile of its own history. That is essentially a normal reading for a measure that structurally lives below zero. - Trajectory: it improved meaningfully early in the 13-week window, from -0.233 to -0.140. That gain came mostly from sellers thinning faster than buyers. - It has since gone flat for roughly nine weeks, oscillating between -0.141 and -0.162 with no fresh directional turn. **Buyer participation** - The reading is 2.58%, at the 50th percentile, exactly median. - Trajectory: it fell from 3.06% to a trough of 2.02%. It has now risen for six consecutive weeks to 2.58%. - That upturn is genuine but modest. It has only returned buyer breadth to normal, nowhere near the 76th–99th percentile readings that marked every major low (2008, 2009, 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2025). **Seller participation** - The reading is 3.74%, at the 65th percentile, mildly elevated versus its norm. - Trajectory: it fell from 5.03% to 3.14%, then rose for five straight weeks. - Because buyers and sellers are climbing together, activity is broadening on both sides rather than tilting. - Per the suite's measured asymmetry, mildly elevated selling by itself is a weak signal and routine in nature. **Dollar ratio** (conviction-sized discretionary money) - The reading is -0.6154, at the 45th percentile, slightly below its norm. - Sell dollars dominate, as they almost always do. Conviction-sized money is neither leaning bullish against the crowd count nor unusually heavy on the sell side. - It broadly agrees with the "nothing special" picture from the participation lenses. **Planned sellers** (pre-scheduled selling programs) - The reading is 4.23%, at the 36th percentile, below its norm. - Trajectory: a steady cooling, from a 5.52% peak down to 4.23% across the window. - This is the opposite of the froth combination. Late 2021 saw planned-seller enrollment at the 96th percentile alongside heavy selling. - It is also far from the washed-out 13th-percentile reading at the 2022 low, so it signals mild absence of froth, not capitulation. **How the lenses fit together** - Bottom-side lenses (net breadth, buyer participation): median, with no buying extreme. - Top-side lenses (planned sellers plus seller participation): split. Sellers are mildly elevated, but planned selling is subdued and cooling, so the froth combination is absent. - The net result is a balanced, unremarkable backdrop. **Divergence versus the tape** - No SP-500 context was provided, so I cannot assess whether insiders are accumulating into weakness. That is this suite's most reliable signal, and it is unavailable here. **Latest week** - The single-week count showed 100 net-buying versus 82 net-selling companies, out of only 184 active of 4,357 alive. That is a thin sample and one week, so I treat it as noise. - The low active count is consistent with late-September quarter-end trading blackouts. Participation may be seasonally suppressed heading into Q3 earnings. - The post-earnings open window in October–November will give a more representative read. **What would change my read** - **Toward Bullish:** buyer participation pushing into its upper quartile while seller participation rolls over and thins. This would be especially strong if it happened into a market pullback, which would be a fresh accumulation signal. - **Toward cautious/Bearish:** several lenses agreeing on the sell side. That would mean seller participation pushing toward its upper extremes, planned-seller enrollment reversing its cooling trend and climbing toward elevated percentiles, and the dollar ratio deteriorating. - Rising sellers alone would not justify more than a soft caution. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===How heavily institutions are positioned, from our proprietary SEC 13-F fund-holdings dataset.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Large-cap and small-cap median participation both sit at record lows with flat trends, while large-cap concentration hit a record high after rising 14 quarters. Sectors split: Utilities, Basic Materials and Healthcare sit at multi-year highs, while Financial Services and Real Estate participation is falling near record lows.
Sector & Size Insights: Strongest are Utilities and Basic Materials near 4-year highs (bullish); weakest are Financial Services, Real Estate and Industrials, all near record lows (bearish). Breadth is bearish: typical large and small caps sit at record lows while mid caps hold steady; the record-low gap reflects large-cap erosion, not risk-on.
Participation Cycle: Late and stretched: CYCLICALLY, trends are flat while large-cap concentration has risen 14 quarters; SECULARLY, large and small medians sit at record lows.
Data Freshness: Figures reflect Q2 2026 13F filings at mid-cycle; Q3 2026 data arrives by November 14 (49 days), which could shift these readings.
What This Means: Favor Utilities, Basic Materials and Energy, avoid Financial Services and Real Estate, and respect fragility from institutions crowding into a shrinking megacap set.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Large-cap and small-cap median participation both sit at record lows with flat trends, while large-cap concentration hit a record high after rising 14 quarters. Sectors split: Utilities, Basic Materials and Healthcare sit at multi-year highs, while Financial Services and Real Estate participation is falling near record lows.
Sector & Size Insights: Strongest are Utilities and Basic Materials near 4-year highs (bullish); weakest are Financial Services, Real Estate and Industrials, all near record lows (bearish). Breadth is bearish: typical large and small caps sit at record lows while mid caps hold steady; the record-low gap reflects large-cap erosion, not risk-on.
Participation Cycle: Late and stretched: CYCLICALLY, trends are flat while large-cap concentration has risen 14 quarters; SECULARLY, large and small medians sit at record lows.
Data Freshness: Figures reflect Q2 2026 13F filings at mid-cycle; Q3 2026 data arrives by November 14 (49 days), which could shift these readings.
What This Means: Favor Utilities, Basic Materials and Energy, avoid Financial Services and Real Estate, and respect fragility from institutions crowding into a shrinking megacap set.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Market-wide read: This is a narrow, crowded institutional market, not a broad risk-on one. The typical large-cap stock is held by a record-low share of funds, and the typical small cap is also at a record low. Meanwhile, large-cap concentration, measured as the mean-median gap, is at a record high after rising for 14 straight quarters. Institutions are piling into a handful of mega-names while ownership of the median stock thins out. The overall large-small gap is at a record low, which would normally read as risk-on. Here, however, it is produced by large-cap median erosion rather than small-cap gains, so it should not be treated as a broadening signal. Mid caps are the only size bucket in a normal range. Every cap-median and gap trend is flat, so there is no fresh directional turn. The picture is one of stretched extremes, which is why the overall rating is Neutral rather than outright Bearish: levels are extreme, but the flow trend has not accelerated. Sector leadership is barbelled. On the defensive side, Utilities leads with the highest absolute participation, near 4-year highs across every cap tier. On the real-asset and cyclical side, Basic Materials is at a 4-year high and broadening into small caps, and Energy is at a 1-year high. Healthcare and Technology are at or near 3-year highs, with smaller names gaining relative ground. Distribution is concentrated in rate- and credit-sensitive areas: Financial Services and Real Estate have outright falling trends, and Industrials and Communication Services show eroding breadth near record lows. Consumer Defensive was skipped as two-sided. Its total is near a record low and small caps are at a record low, but mid caps have been rising for 3 quarters to a 3-year high. Consumer Cyclical was also skipped: its total is at a 1-year high, but small caps are at a record low. What would change this read: - **More bullish:** Q3 13F data (due November 14) showing large- and small-cap medians turning up off record lows, with large-cap concentration rolling over, would signal genuine broadening. - **More bearish:** The flat trends in Industrials and Consumer Defensive tipping into falling trends, or the Utilities and Basic Materials highs failing, would confirm a broader institutional retreat. Squeeze-risk note: Healthcare's large-cap tier is at a record low while its total sits at a 3-year high. Institutions are accumulating smaller healthcare names, so shorting the sector broadly is risky. SECTORS: Utilities | bullish | cyclical:extended, secular:extended | Highest participation of any sector, near 4-year high; large tier near 5-year high, mid 3-year high, small near 4-year high; concentration rising 7 quarters Basic Materials | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | Total at 4-year high; large-small gap falling 3 quarters as small-cap participation rises 2 quarters while large and mid ease, broadening down-cap Healthcare | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | Total at 3-year high with sector gap at record low and concentration near record low; broad accumulation of smaller names despite large tier at record low Technology | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | Total near 3-year high, gap falling 2 quarters (risk appetite reaching smaller names), but concentration at record high means megacap crowding Energy | bullish | cyclical:fresh, secular:fresh | Total at 1-year high with gap at 1-year low; large tier at 1-year low, so accumulation is rotating toward mid and small names; concentration at 3-year high Financial Services | bearish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | Total falling 2 quarters to near record low; small tier at record low, mid near record low; clearest active distribution Real Estate | bearish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | Total just turned down to near record low; small tier at record low, large near record low; gap at 1-year high signals flight to safety within the sector Industrials | bearish | cyclical:extended, secular:extended | Large tier falling 4 quarters to near record low, mid near record low, small at record low; concentration at record high, so breadth is collapsing into a few names Communication Services | bearish | cyclical:fresh, secular:extended | Total near record low while gap is at 3-year high and large tier at 3-year high; institutions retreating to the biggest names, concentration rising 2 quarters ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Historical month-by-month tendencies for the broad market.
Rating: Bullish
Key Evidence: The market is in a rising long-term trend. In that setting, September is historically the weakest month (flat median, 45% win rate) and December the strongest (+2.02%, 71% wins).
Seasonal Freshness: entering — Only a few trading days of weak September remain, and the calendar turns toward the historically strongest stretch, November through December. October is a modest positive bridge rather than a powerhouse.
What This Means: Seasonality supports holding or adding long exposure into October, with the strongest calendar tailwind typically arriving in November and December.
Rating: Bullish
Key Evidence: The market is in a rising long-term trend. In that setting, September is historically the weakest month (flat median, 45% win rate) and December the strongest (+2.02%, 71% wins).
Seasonal Freshness: entering — Only a few trading days of weak September remain, and the calendar turns toward the historically strongest stretch, November through December. October is a modest positive bridge rather than a powerhouse.
What This Means: Seasonality supports holding or adding long exposure into October, with the strongest calendar tailwind typically arriving in November and December.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Regime context matters. The report says the market's 20-month moving average is rising, so the "rising market" rows are the relevant ones. **Strongest and weakest months** - Across all history, November has the highest median return (+1.66%), narrowly ahead of July (+1.60%) and January (+1.59%). December has the highest win rate (68.4%). - In the current rising regime the picture sharpens. December is clearly the strongest month on both measures (+2.02% median, 71.4% win rate, 70 samples). - November is second (+1.67%, 61.6%) and January third (+1.68%, 62.9%). - September is the weakest month in every version of the data. Its all-history median is -0.36% with a 42.9% win rate. It is worse in falling regimes (-1.31%, 33.3%) and merely flat in rising regimes (0.00%, 45.3%). - So the September headwind is real but mild in bull-trend years. It is essentially a coin flip with a slight downside tilt, not a reliable decline. **Where the rising regime differs from all-history** - October: the popular "October rebound" is largely a falling-regime phenomenon. October posts +2.65% with a 61.9% win rate when the trend is down, but only +0.83% with 56.0% in rising regimes. That is below its all-history figure of +1.05%. - December: its strength is concentrated in rising regimes (+2.02%) versus just +0.22% in falling regimes. - The practical read: in the current environment, expect October to be a modestly positive transition month. The real seasonal payoff is in November and December, extending into January. **Path through the next one to three months** - Late September: about three trading days remain, so what's left of the weak month has little bearing on positioning. - October: modestly favorable, with a slight upward lean and roughly 56% of years positive. - November: meaningfully stronger (+1.67% median, about 62% positive). - December: the best month of the rising-regime calendar (+2.02% median, about 71% positive). - January is also strong (+1.68%, about 63% positive). That makes November through January the most favorable consecutive three-month cluster in bull-trend years. - After that, February is soft (+0.57%, 55%), which marks the natural end of the window. **Seasonal timing** - We sit at the tail end of the seasonal low point. - The environment is transitioning into the most favorable part of the year, so "entering" is the right timing label. - The tailwind is building rather than already spent. Early October is not the peak, but it is the on-ramp to the peak. **What would change this read** - A regime flip to a falling 20-month average would reshape the outlook. October would get stronger on paper, but November and especially December would weaken sharply. A 20-month average turns slowly, so a flip within this window is unlikely. - A decisive trend breakdown or macro shock would override calendar tendencies. Seasonality is a background tailwind, not a trigger. - Even the best months lose often. Roughly 29% of rising-regime Decembers and 44% of rising-regime Octobers were negative. - Sample sizes in the rising regime are healthy (70-75 observations per month), so these tendencies are statistically meaningful. They are still only moderate edges, not certainties. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Aggregate retail-investor positioning and sentiment across the market.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Retail sentiment reads 0.546 — mild greed, but well short of the 0.258 level that marks true crowd euphoria. The 10-week average of 0.872 is falling, showing optimism building since April's fear spike faded.
Sentiment Freshness: no extreme — the reading sits in the unremarkable middle band, with the last genuine fear extreme 22 weeks ago and the last greed extreme 88 weeks ago.
What This Means: No contrarian edge here; sentiment is drifting optimistic but not yet stretched enough to trade against.
Rating: Neutral
Key Evidence: Retail sentiment reads 0.546 — mild greed, but well short of the 0.258 level that marks true crowd euphoria. The 10-week average of 0.872 is falling, showing optimism building since April's fear spike faded.
Sentiment Freshness: no extreme — the reading sits in the unremarkable middle band, with the last genuine fear extreme 22 weeks ago and the last greed extreme 88 weeks ago.
What This Means: No contrarian edge here; sentiment is drifting optimistic but not yet stretched enough to trade against.
===MASTER_VERDICT=== Current reading is 0.546, which sits in the greed half of the scale (below 1.00) but nowhere near an actionable extreme. The contrarian sell trigger requires a drop to 0.258 or lower — the current print is roughly twice that level, so the crowd is cheerful, not euphoric. Historically this reading lands at about the 39th percentile of its own history, meaning roughly six out of ten past weeks showed MORE fear than today. That is a mildly complacent backdrop, not a dangerous one. Direction of travel matters more than the single print here. The 10-week average of 0.872 is falling, and the current week sits 37% below that average — both facts say sentiment is moving toward greed, i.e. toward the contrarian sell band, not away from it. But the path has been noisy rather than trending: the last ten weeks have bounced between 0.690 and 1.231, including a brief fear pop on 14 September (1.231, still just shy of the 1.300 fear trigger) before collapsing back to 0.546 in two weeks. That kind of whipsaw argues against reading too much into any single leg. The broader arc is a clean unwind of the April panic. Sentiment peaked at 2.443 in mid-April — deep, genuine fear that was a textbook contrarian buy — and the last extreme fear print was 27 April at 1.643, some 22 weeks ago. Since then the crowd has steadily relaxed. The last extreme greed print was 88 weeks ago (January 2025 at 0.217), so the market has gone a long stretch without a euphoric top-signal. The 52-week average of 1.032 and median of 0.943 confirm the past year has been, on balance, a fearful-to-neutral one; today's 0.546 is toward the optimistic end of that year but still above the 52-week low of 0.413 set in early July, which itself never triggered a signal. What would change the read: a print at or below 0.258 would be a fresh extreme greed signal and flip this to a genuine contrarian bearish call — and given the falling average and the current downward momentum, that is the more plausible near-term path. Two or three consecutive weeks in the 0.30–0.40 zone would also warrant raising caution even without a formal trigger, since it would show a persistent complacent regime rather than a one-week blip. Conversely, a spike back above 1.300 (which nearly happened two weeks ago) would be a fresh extreme fear signal and a contrarian buy. Until one of those happens, this indicator is on the sidelines and should carry little weight against other evidence. ===END_MASTER_VERDICT===Trends in new issuance — a gauge of risk appetite and late-cycle behavior.
New US listings over the last 12 months, split into traditional IPOs and SPACs (blank-check "Acquisition" companies).
| Month | Traditional IPOs | SPACs |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | 11 | 8 |
| Dec 2025 | 16 | 14 |
| Jan 2026 | 12 | 19 |
| Feb 2026 | 17 | 24 |
| Mar 2026 | 7 | 7 |
| Apr 2026 | 16 | 10 |
| May 2026 | 19 | 16 |
| Jun 2026 | 25 | 10 |
| Jul 2026 | 16 | 13 |
| Aug 2026 | 10 | 9 |
| Sep 2026 | 5 | 5 |
| null-null | 94 | 0 |
Strong, actionable setups to start from — full list on the screener.
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.