MUSA — Murphy USA Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Murphy USA Inc

Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores. It operates retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest areas of the United States. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$516.08
Market Cap$10.06B
Float16.7M
Shares Outstanding18.5M
P/E (Forward)19.69
P/E (TTM)18.94
Price/Sales (TTM)0.58
vs. Analyst Target+8.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.20%
Operating Margin (TTM)4.82%
Revenue (TTM)$17.30B
Earnings Growth (YoY)176.80%
Dividend Rate2.4%
Analyst Target Price$558.00 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $11.26B $386M $1.44B $723M
2021 $17.36B $397M $1.85B $820M
2022 $23.45B $673M $2.40B $1.19B
2023 $21.53B $557M $2.31B $1.07B
2024 $20.24B $503M $2.31B $997M
2025 $19.38B $471M $971M $1.02B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $5.00B $146M
Sep 2025 $5.11B $130M
Dec 2025 $4.74B $142M
Mar 2026 $4.82B $136M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership9.8%
Institutional Ownership89.1%
Short Float5.7%
% of All Funds Holding6.25%
Number of Funds Holding514

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$531.96Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$432.66Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$447.06Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$394.18Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$432.29Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$449.87Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$411.42Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$490.00 support 1.14x 0 months ago
$393.00 support 1.28x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (52 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.33% -0.27% 48.08% 11.16% -9.39%
1 Day -0.27% -0.27% 48.08% 24.35% -12.28%
1 Week 0.12% 1.53% 61.54% 22.56% -18.63%
2 Weeks 1.63% 2.18% 63.46% 22.09% -13.47%
1 Month 1.78% 2.71% 60.78% 23.51% -16.09%

Next earnings: July 18, 2026 (50 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.7%38.5%13
Feb-0.3%46.2%13
Mar4.8%76.9%13
Apr3.0%46.2%13
May2.5%58.3%12
Jun2.5%50.0%12
Jul5.2%75.0%12
Aug0.8%75.0%12
Sep1.6%53.8%13
Oct4.7%53.8%13
Nov4.0%69.2%13
Dec-0.6%46.2%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.17% 53.2% 601
Tuesday 0.08% 49.3% 663
Wednesday 0.04% 51.8% 657
Thursday 0.08% 54.0% 645
Friday 0.13% 54.5% 644

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 89.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 9.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings19
Net Value-$29.0M
Net Shares Change-90,489
% of Float-0.5%
C-Suite Filings15
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
MURPHY ROBERT MADISON -$22.9M 2 1 buy, 1 sell
Clyde R Andrew Chief Executive Officer -$15.6M 2 1 buy, 2 sell
CHUMLEY ROBERT J SVP Innovation -$2.1M 1 1 sell
Bacon Renee M SVP, Sales and Operations -$1.1M 1 1 sell
Emery Keith A. SVP, Chief Fuels Officer -$1.0M 2 2 sell
Woodward Scott G. SVP, Chief Merchandising Off. -$414,624.911 2 2 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-06 – 2026-02-13 4 3 -$3.0M 4 C-suite
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-09 5 5 -$4.1M 4 C-suite
2026-05-06 – 2026-05-18 3 3 -$25.8M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-09 CHUMLEY ROBERT J SVP Innovation -$2.1M Transaction at $420.00, now +22.9%
2026-05-18 Emery Keith A. SVP, Chief Fuels Officer -$690,555.93 Transaction at $575.35, now -10.3%
2026-05-06 Woodward Scott G. SVP, Chief Merchandising Off. -$356,901.02 Transaction at $596.65, now -13.5%
2026-05-06 MURPHY ROBERT MADISON -$24.8M Transaction at $596.96, now -13.5%
2026-03-09 Woodward Scott G. SVP Merchandising -$57,723.891 Transaction at $422.44, now +22.2%
2026-02-27 Emery Keith A. SVP Fuels -$343,894.47 Transaction at $382.53, now +34.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MUSA on Trend Edge →