MBI — MBIA Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MBI Bearish with a Setup Score of 16, net conviction 27, actionability 10. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score16
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction27
Actionability10 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About MBIA Inc

MBIA Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets in the United States. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, Corporate, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$6.38
Market Cap$326M
Float45.1M
Shares Outstanding50.9M
P/E (Forward)86.96
Price/Sales (TTM)3.33
vs. Analyst Target+13.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-158.16%
Operating Margin (TTM)18.18%
Revenue (TTM)$98.0M
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$7.25 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $282M -$578M $190M -$578M
2021 $159M -$445M $62.0M -$445M
2022 $154M -$203M $108M $32.0M
2023 $7.0M -$487M -$175M -$273M
2024 $42.0M -$444M -$146M -$232M
2025 $80.0M -$177M $12.0M $16.0M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $23.0M -$56.0M
Sep 2025 $15.0M -$8.0M
Dec 2025 $28.0M -$51.0M
Mar 2026 $24.0M -$40.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership11.4%
Institutional Ownership50.9%
Short Float5.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.44%
Number of Funds Holding118

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$6.16Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$6.53Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$6.11Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$7.19Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$6.50Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$6.19Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$6.35Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.90 support 1.04x 0 months ago
$7.10 resistance 1.22x 5 months ago
$5.30 support 1.55x 10 months ago
$4.00 support 1.87x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.03% 0.00% 47.15% 34.92% -15.63%
1 Day -0.52% -0.24% 47.97% 28.28% -26.67%
1 Week -0.54% -0.72% 41.46% 50.20% -27.71%
2 Weeks 0.44% -0.63% 45.53% 104.02% -50.12%
1 Month 1.93% 0.21% 50.82% 112.09% -40.41%

Next earnings: August 5, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.2%38.5%39
Feb1.3%61.5%39
Mar3.1%53.8%39
Apr0.0%41.0%39
May0.7%46.2%39
Jun-1.7%56.4%39
Jul4.0%68.4%38
Aug7.8%53.8%39
Sep-3.7%41.0%39
Oct-0.7%46.2%39
Nov3.3%61.5%39
Dec0.4%56.4%39

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 45.5% 1852
Tuesday 0.05% 46.7% 2016
Wednesday 0.13% 49.9% 2014
Thursday 0.14% 48.0% 1978
Friday 0.04% 46.9% 1965

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 50.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 11.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-64,804
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Shasta Theodore -$229,520.11 3 3 sell
VAUGHAN RICHARD C -$152,272.02 1 1 sell
DEWBREY DIANE L -$35,571.25 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-12 – 2025-08-25 4 3 -$366,945.58

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-08-28 Shasta Theodore -$50,417.8 Transaction at $7.90, now -19.2%
2025-08-20 Shasta Theodore -$56,102.31 Transaction at $6.71, now -4.9%
2025-08-14 Shasta Theodore -$123,000 Transaction at $6.15, now +3.7%
2025-08-12 VAUGHAN RICHARD C -$152,272.02 Transaction at $6.07, now +5.1%
2025-08-25 DEWBREY DIANE L -$35,571.25 Transaction at $7.15, now -10.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MBIA Inc (MBI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MBI on Trend Edge →