MSFT — Microsoft Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MSFT Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 17, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction17
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft Corporation, a technology company, develops and supports a portfolio of technology solutions for individuals and businesses worldwide. Its products include operating systems, server applications, business solution applications, software development tools, desktop and server management tools, and video games; and devices, such as PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other intelligent devices, and related accessories. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$487.31
Market Cap$3.57T
Float7.41B
Shares Outstanding7.43B
P/E (Forward)24.45
P/E (TTM)26.96
Price/Sales (TTM)10.77
vs. Analyst Target+16.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin40.31%
Operating Margin (TTM)45.11%
Revenue (TTM)$331.84B
Earnings Growth (YoY)31.70%
Dividend Rate3.6%
Analyst Target Price$569.56 (61 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $168.09B $61.27B $115.86B $85.13B
2022 $198.27B $72.74B $135.62B $100.24B
2023 $211.91B $72.36B $146.05B $105.14B
2024 $245.12B $88.14B $171.01B $133.01B
2025 $281.72B $101.83B $193.89B $160.16B
2026 $331.84B $133.75B $225.47B $207.52B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $77.67B $27.75B
Dec 2025 $81.27B $38.46B
Mar 2026 $82.89B $31.78B
Jun 2026 $90.01B $35.77B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.1%
Institutional Ownership76.0%
Short Float1.1%
% of All Funds Holding70.11%
Number of Funds Holding6,167

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$435.47Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$428.12Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$448.13Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$396.16Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$435.19Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$448.42Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$417.75Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$381.00 support 1.18x 0 months ago
$368.00 support 1.22x 3 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.85% 0.98% 59.84% 12.92% -14.81%
1 Day 0.39% 0.46% 56.56% 19.57% -15.60%
1 Week 0.29% 0.02% 50.00% 27.99% -18.26%
2 Weeks 0.63% 0.29% 52.46% 35.87% -16.57%
1 Month -0.03% 0.58% 53.72% 29.83% -17.56%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.9%65.0%40
Feb-0.9%42.5%40
Mar2.9%65.0%40
Apr3.3%68.3%41
May2.8%65.9%41
Jun2.0%56.1%41
Jul0.2%53.7%41
Aug1.4%60.0%40
Sep0.7%57.5%40
Oct4.7%65.0%40
Nov2.4%60.0%40
Dec1.7%57.5%40

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 52.1% 1922
Tuesday 0.11% 50.0% 2091
Wednesday 0.21% 51.9% 2089
Thursday 0.08% 50.6% 2049
Friday 0.03% 48.3% 2037

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 76.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings13
Net Value-$188M
Net Shares Change-62,780
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings12
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SMITH BRADFORD L Vice Chair and President -$20.2M 2 1 buy, 2 sell
Althoff Judson CEO Microsoft Commercial -$12.0M 2 2 sell
Numoto Takeshi EVP, Chief Marketing Officer -$5.2M 3 3 sell
Hogan Kathleen T EVP, Strategy -$5.0M 1 1 sell
STANTON JOHN W +$2.0M 1 1 buy
Coleman Amy EVP, Chief Human Resources Off -$555,535.865 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-12 3 3 -$7.9M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-05 Numoto Takeshi EVP, Chief Marketing Officer -$2.4M Transaction at $496.48, now -1.8%
2026-08-06 Althoff Judson CEO Microsoft Commercial -$4.9M Transaction at $487.89, now -0.1%
2026-06-02 Althoff Judson CEO Microsoft Commercial -$7.1M Transaction at $460.99, now +5.7%
2026-06-12 Numoto Takeshi EVP, Chief Marketing Officer -$1.8M Transaction at $402.84, now +21.0%
2026-06-10 Numoto Takeshi EVP, Chief Marketing Officer -$1.0M Transaction at $412.45, now +18.2%
2025-12-12 SMITH BRADFORD L Vice Chair and President -$234,277.476 Transaction at $407.95, now +19.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MSFT on Trend Edge →