MDGL — Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on delivering novel therapeutics for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in the United States. It offers Rezdiffra, a liver-directed thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist for treating MASH. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in West Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$510.04
Market Cap$12.33B
Float14.5M
Shares Outstanding23.1M
P/E (Forward)666.67
Price/Sales (TTM)10.89
vs. Analyst Target+29.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin-27.32%
Operating Margin (TTM)-29.78%
Revenue (TTM)$1.13B
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$661.67 (15 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $21,864 -$197M $21,864 -$206M
2021 $37,318 -$241M $273,000 -$242M
2022 N/A -$295M -$467,000 -$291M
2023 N/A -$374M -$527,000 -$360M
2024 $180M -$466M $174M -$450M
2025 $958M -$288M $902M -$264M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $213M -$42.3M
Sep 2025 $287M -$114M
Dec 2025 $321M -$58.6M
Mar 2026 $311M -$94.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.7%
Institutional Ownership104.0%
Short Float27.7%
% of All Funds Holding4.47%
Number of Funds Holding345

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$496.42Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$482.61Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$398.88Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$281.10Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$496.69Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$404.23Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$317.53Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$431.00 support 1.08x 1 months ago
$422.00 support 1.13x 5 months ago
$299.00 support 1.15x 8 months ago
$275.00 support 1.31x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (77 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.16% -0.25% 37.66% 16.52% -12.50%
1 Day -0.50% -0.54% 36.36% 20.10% -16.37%
1 Week 0.97% 0.00% 49.35% 64.34% -33.85%
2 Weeks 0.84% -0.92% 46.75% 47.49% -43.01%
1 Month 6.28% 1.01% 53.25% 139.96% -52.49%

Next earnings: May 12, 2026 (1 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.4%47.4%19
Feb-0.7%63.2%19
Mar-0.9%35.0%20
Apr7.5%55.0%20
May5.0%36.8%19
Jun-5.4%42.1%19
Jul1.1%31.6%19
Aug2.3%47.4%19
Sep7.2%47.4%19
Oct-0.9%47.4%19
Nov6.4%63.2%19
Dec23.1%52.6%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.55% 49.0% 909
Tuesday -0.01% 46.7% 994
Wednesday -0.15% 45.6% 993
Thursday 0.31% 47.3% 974
Friday 0.21% 48.7% 970

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 104.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.7%

Founder-led management: Rebecca Taub (Founder and Senior Scientific and Medical Advisor and Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings32
Net Value-$14.6M
Net Shares Change205,725
% of Float1.4%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected5

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP +$61.9M 1 1 buy
Sibold William John President and CEO -$6.1M 4 4 sell
Dier Mardi EVP and CFO -$1.4M 2 1 sell
Taub Rebecca -$212,082.54 1 1 sell
Huntsman Carole Chief Commercial Officer -$180,982.86 1 1 sell
Kelley Shannon T General Counsel -$155,498.4 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-13 – 2025-08-21 7 6 -$40.1M 2 C-suite
2025-11-07 – 2025-11-21 3 3 -$10.0M 1 C-suite
2025-12-03 – 2025-12-12 4 4 -$26.0M 2 C-suite
2026-01-13 – 2026-01-26 7 5 -$25.0M 3 C-suite
2026-03-02 – 2026-03-06 6 5 -$2.6M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-06 Kelley Shannon T General Counsel -$155,498.4 Transaction at $431.94, now +18.1%
2026-03-06 Huntsman Carole Chief Commercial Officer -$180,982.86 Transaction at $431.94, now +18.1%
2026-03-02 Dier Mardi EVP and CFO -$505,389.43 Transaction at $427.21, now +19.4%
2026-03-06 Sibold William John President and CEO -$718,316.22 Transaction at $431.94, now +18.1%
2026-03-06 Taub Rebecca -$212,082.54 Transaction at $431.94, now +18.1%
2025-12-04 Sibold William John President and CEO -$1.4M Transaction at $575.34, now -11.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MDGL on Trend Edge →