SMG — Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally. The company provides lawn care products, comprising lawn fertilizers, clover and grass seed products, spreaders, and other durable products, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products; and gardening and … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$56.63
Market Cap$3.44B
Float44.5M
Shares Outstanding58.2M
P/E (Forward)14.14
P/E (TTM)16.87
Price/Sales (TTM)0.99
vs. Analyst Target+30.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.19%
Operating Margin (TTM)27.68%
Revenue (TTM)$3.47B
Earnings Growth (YoY)8.50%
Dividend Rate2.6%
Analyst Target Price$74.00 (11 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.13B $387M $1.35B $685M
2021 $4.92B $513M $1.47B $850M
2022 $3.92B -$438M $873M -$335M
2023 $3.55B -$380M $657M -$183M
2024 $3.55B -$34.9M $851M $216M
2025 $3.41B $145M $1.04B $426M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.19B $149M
Sep 2025 $387M -$152M
Dec 2025 $354M -$125M
Mar 2026 $1.46B $239M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership23.6%
Institutional Ownership80.4%
Short Float10.9%
% of All Funds Holding5.07%
Number of Funds Holding417

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$62.12Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$60.64Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$62.44Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$63.62Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$60.11Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$62.73Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$64.45Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$69.00 resistance 1.20x 1 months ago
$51.00 support 1.31x 11 months ago
$87.00 resistance 1.24x 17 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.26% 0.11% 52.85% 12.10% -16.01%
1 Day 0.77% 0.44% 54.47% 29.16% -20.52%
1 Week 0.88% 0.69% 55.28% 22.84% -26.95%
2 Weeks 1.26% 1.26% 56.91% 33.24% -30.17%
1 Month 0.82% 2.31% 56.56% 43.79% -30.05%

Next earnings: July 29, 2026 (72 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.9%64.7%34
Feb-1.4%37.1%35
Mar2.2%54.3%35
Apr0.3%48.6%35
May-0.4%44.1%34
Jun-3.2%29.4%34
Jul1.4%47.1%34
Aug1.0%55.9%34
Sep-1.9%47.1%34
Oct2.8%64.7%34
Nov2.7%61.8%34
Dec2.8%73.5%34

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 46.9% 1624
Tuesday 0.09% 49.2% 1772
Wednesday 0.04% 49.0% 1770
Thursday 0.00% 46.5% 1736
Friday 0.11% 51.2% 1726

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 80.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 23.6%

Founder-led management: Horace Hagedorn (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$4.3M
Net Shares Change-175,647
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. -$11.2M 3 3 sell
Scheiwer Mark J EVP, CFO and CAO +$60,349.754 3 2 buy, 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-25 Scheiwer Mark J EVP, CFO and CAO +$49,504.455 Transaction at $71.44, now -20.7%
2025-09-04 Scheiwer Mark J EVP, CFO and CAO +$109,762.8 Transaction at $61.32, now -7.6%
2025-08-08 Scheiwer Mark J EVP, CFO and CAO -$98,917.501 Transaction at $61.82, now -8.4%
2026-02-13 Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. -$3.3M Transaction at $66.40, now -14.7%
2025-08-06 Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. Chairman, CEO and President -$4.4M Transaction at $62.28, now -9.1%
2025-09-08 Hagedorn Partnership, L.P. -$3.6M Transaction at $63.02, now -10.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for SMG on Trend Edge →