MOS — The Mosaic Company

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MOS Bearish with a Setup Score of 47, net conviction 31, actionability 70. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score47
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction31
Actionability70 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About The Mosaic Company

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium pho… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$20.75
Market Cap$6.72B
Float315.9M
Shares Outstanding317.8M
P/E (Forward)21.83
P/E (TTM)150.93
Price/Sales (TTM)0.54
vs. Analyst Target+29.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin0.36%
Operating Margin (TTM)0.79%
Revenue (TTM)$12.43B
Earnings Growth (YoY)239.50%
Dividend Rate0.9%
Analyst Target Price$26.93 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $8.68B $666M $1.06B $1.24B
2021 $12.36B $1.63B $3.20B $3.23B
2022 $19.13B $3.58B $5.76B $5.75B
2023 $13.70B $1.16B $2.21B $2.48B
2024 $11.12B $175M $1.51B $1.57B
2025 $12.05B $541M $1.82B $2.61B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $3.01B $411M
Sep 2025 $3.45B $411M
Dec 2025 $2.60B $162M
Mar 2026 $3.00B -$258M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership94.3%
Short Float7.5%
% of All Funds Holding7.85%
Number of Funds Holding645

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$22.24Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$25.34Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$28.20Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$33.15Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$24.60Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$27.82Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$30.24Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$23.70 resistance 1.33x 0 months ago
$26.90 resistance 1.16x 2 months ago
$29.00 resistance 2.01x 3 months ago
$34.70 resistance 1.07x 8 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (109 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.13% 0.10% 55.05% 9.06% -10.45%
1 Day 0.36% 0.95% 61.47% 13.52% -13.31%
1 Week 0.77% 1.15% 56.88% 28.95% -16.14%
2 Weeks 0.70% 1.29% 59.63% 33.63% -24.68%
1 Month 3.08% 3.02% 59.26% 61.44% -49.92%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (24 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.0%63.2%38
Feb3.7%61.5%39
Mar-1.4%46.2%39
Apr-1.4%38.5%39
May-1.6%41.0%39
Jun-0.9%51.3%39
Jul2.7%71.1%38
Aug1.6%60.5%38
Sep-2.9%44.7%38
Oct1.0%47.4%38
Nov1.8%52.6%38
Dec5.5%68.4%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.03% 48.0% 1823
Tuesday 0.12% 47.6% 1986
Wednesday 0.05% 48.5% 1985
Thursday -0.01% 48.0% 1949
Friday 0.08% 47.9% 1938

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 94.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change685
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kuzenko Jody Lynne +$17,488.05 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-13 Kuzenko Jody Lynne +$17,488.05 Transaction at $25.53, now -18.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for The Mosaic Company (MOS) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MOS on Trend Edge →