CF — CF Industries Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About CF Industries Holdings Inc

CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$116.34
Market Cap$18.70B
Float152.5M
Shares Outstanding153.6M
P/E (Forward)7.10
P/E (TTM)10.96
Price/Sales (TTM)2.52
vs. Analyst Target+7.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin23.73%
Operating Margin (TTM)33.59%
Revenue (TTM)$7.41B
Earnings Growth (YoY)115.10%
Dividend Rate2.0%
Analyst Target Price$125.47 (21 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.12B $317M $834M $1.53B
2021 $6.54B $917M $2.36B $2.61B
2022 $11.19B $3.35B $5.89B $6.28B
2023 $6.63B $1.52B $2.65B $3.27B
2024 $5.94B $1.22B $2.06B $2.83B
2025 $7.08B $1.46B $2.72B $3.29B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.89B $386M
Sep 2025 $1.66B $353M
Dec 2025 $1.87B $404M
Mar 2026 $1.99B $615M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership103.0%
Short Float5.1%
% of All Funds Holding10.57%
Number of Funds Holding869

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$122.23Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$97.85Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$92.06Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$86.43Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$97.88Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$92.07Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$84.98Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$108.00 support 2.48x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (84 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.25% -0.08% 46.43% 8.76% -7.34%
1 Day 0.72% 0.75% 60.71% 19.69% -12.60%
1 Week 2.20% 1.80% 61.90% 43.40% -13.27%
2 Weeks 2.13% 1.06% 54.76% 30.19% -20.49%
1 Month 3.16% 2.68% 56.63% 44.49% -41.96%

Next earnings: July 25, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.3%52.4%21
Feb6.1%71.4%21
Mar-2.5%28.6%21
Apr1.4%61.9%21
May0.7%65.0%20
Jun0.7%45.0%20
Jul6.1%85.0%20
Aug3.1%55.0%20
Sep0.3%66.7%21
Oct1.1%42.9%21
Nov2.3%61.9%21
Dec3.2%66.7%21

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 50.2% 979
Tuesday 0.19% 52.3% 1074
Wednesday 0.07% 52.7% 1073
Thursday 0.06% 50.6% 1052
Friday 0.24% 53.3% 1050

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 103.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings29
Net Value-$18.3M
Net Shares Change-621,873
% of Float-0.4%
C-Suite Filings23
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Menzel Susan L EVP and Chief Admin. Officer -$2.5M 1 1 sell
Malik Ashraf K Sr. VP, Manufacturing and D'istn -$1.3M 2 2 sell
Hoker Richard A VP and Corporate Controller -$1.1M 2 2 sell
McGrane Michael Patrick SVP, Gen. Counsel and Secretary -$718,514.76 2 2 sell
Mayer Erik M. VP, Clean Energy and BusDevelop -$442,784.34 2 2 sell
Dempsey Linda M VP, Public Affairs -$213,000 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-06-17 – 2025-06-24 3 3 -$4.1M 3 C-suite
2026-02-24 – 2026-03-09 19 8 -$60.1M 15 C-suite
2026-03-13 – 2026-03-19 7 5 -$15.0M 5 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-13 Menzel Susan L EVP and Chief Admin. Officer -$2.5M Transaction at $136.06, now -14.5%
2026-03-03 Malik Ashraf K Sr. VP, Manufacturing and D'istn -$1.1M Transaction at $101.31, now +14.8%
2026-03-19 Mayer Erik M. VP, Clean Energy and BusDevelop -$187,035 Transaction at $124.69, now -6.7%
2026-03-19 Hoker Richard A VP and Corporate Controller -$438,704.97 Transaction at $125.38, now -7.2%
2026-03-09 McGrane Michael Patrick SVP, Gen. Counsel and Secretary -$427,089 Transaction at $116.50, now -0.1%
2026-03-09 Mayer Erik M. VP, Clean Energy and BusDevelop -$255,749.34 Transaction at $116.25, now +0.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for CF on Trend Edge →