MTH — Meritage Corporation

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Meritage Corporation

Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. It acquires and develops land; and constructs, markets, and sells homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers in Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carol… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$66.47
Market Cap$4.27B
Float65.0M
Shares Outstanding66.7M
P/E (Forward)10.98
P/E (TTM)11.66
Price/Sales (TTM)0.76
vs. Analyst Target+17.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin6.86%
Operating Margin (TTM)5.84%
Revenue (TTM)$5.62B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-51.50%
Dividend Rate1.9%
Analyst Target Price$77.78 (10 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.50B $423M $1.00B $585M
2021 $5.14B $737M $1.44B $997M
2022 $6.29B $992M $1.80B $1.31B
2023 $6.11B $739M $1.50B $1.27B
2024 $6.40B $786M $1.60B $984M
2025 $5.86B $453M $1.15B $563M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $1.63B $147M
Sep 2025 $1.42B $99.3M
Dec 2025 $1.44B $84.0M
Mar 2026 $1.12B $55.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.5%
Institutional Ownership102.5%
Short Float5.6%
% of All Funds Holding4.61%
Number of Funds Holding379

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$64.72Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$69.95Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$71.62Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$69.99Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$69.71Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$72.37Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$74.44Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$73.00 resistance 1.16x 1 months ago
$95.00 resistance 1.13x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.03% 0.55% 60.18% 12.15% -5.24%
1 Day 0.94% 0.49% 54.87% 19.32% -11.85%
1 Week 2.11% -0.11% 49.56% 84.65% -20.37%
2 Weeks 2.26% -0.21% 46.90% 79.80% -16.66%
1 Month 2.91% 1.20% 52.68% 92.71% -25.29%

Next earnings: July 11, 2026 (44 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.1%52.6%38
Feb0.3%39.5%38
Mar-2.8%47.4%38
Apr7.7%55.3%38
May4.9%62.2%37
Jun0.3%54.1%37
Jul4.3%51.4%37
Aug-0.2%47.4%38
Sep-2.6%42.1%38
Oct-0.5%44.7%38
Nov4.6%65.8%38
Dec0.9%44.7%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 42.7% 1794
Tuesday 0.21% 45.1% 1955
Wednesday 0.11% 42.6% 1953
Thursday 0.08% 44.2% 1917
Friday 0.16% 42.3% 1909

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 102.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.5%

Founder-led management: Steve Hilton (Executive Chairman of the Board)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings17
Net Value-$6.0M
Net Shares Change-61,538
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings15
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lord Phillippe Chief Executive Officer -$3.5M 3 2 sell
Clinton Malissia EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary -$861,237.097 2 N/A
Sferruzza Hilla EVP- Chief Financial Officer -$834,328.758 1 N/A
Feliciano Javier EVP Chief People Officer -$272,930.966 1 N/A
Keough Joseph +$264,640 1 1 buy
Sasser Alison SVP - Chief Accounting Officer -$133,098.83 2 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-19 – 2026-02-25 12 7 -$4.9M 12 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-13 Sasser Alison SVP - Chief Accounting Officer -$79,066.03 Transaction at $62.11, now +7.0%
2025-06-12 Keough Joseph +$264,640 Transaction at $66.16, now +0.5%
2026-02-19 Lord Phillippe Chief Executive Officer -$400,350 Transaction at $80.07, now -17.0%
2025-08-22 Lord Phillippe Chief Executive Officer -$556,069.5 Transaction at $80.01, now -16.9%
2026-02-25 Clinton Malissia EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary -$394,617.388 Transaction at $76.11, now -12.7%
2026-02-19 Sasser Alison SVP - Chief Accounting Officer -$54,032.8 Transaction at $79.46, now -16.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Meritage Corporation (MTH) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MTH on Trend Edge →