MTH — Meritage Corporation

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MTH Bullish with a Setup Score of 53, net conviction 24, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score53
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction24
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Meritage Corporation

Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Homebuilding and Financial Services. It acquires and develops land; and constructs, markets, and sells homes for entry-level and first move-up buyers in Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carol… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$73.44
Market Cap$4.63B
Float63.5M
Shares Outstanding65.2M
P/E (Forward)12.48
P/E (TTM)15.45
Price/Sales (TTM)0.86
vs. Analyst Target+12.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin6.11%
Operating Margin (TTM)8.19%
Revenue (TTM)$5.39B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-32.80%
Dividend Rate1.9%
Analyst Target Price$82.38 (10 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $4.50B $423M $1.00B $585M
2021 $5.14B $737M $1.44B $981M
2022 $6.29B $992M $1.80B $1.31B
2023 $6.11B $739M $1.50B $1.27B
2024 $6.40B $786M $1.60B $1.03B
2025 $5.86B $453M $1.15B $610M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.42B $99.3M
Dec 2025 $1.44B $84.0M
Mar 2026 $1.12B $55.3M
Jun 2026 $1.39B $185M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.6%
Institutional Ownership106.1%
Short Float6.5%
% of All Funds Holding4.52%
Number of Funds Holding398

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$75.27Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$70.66Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$70.58Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$72.34Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$70.57Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$70.53Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$75.67Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$83.00 resistance 1.02x 0 months ago
$70.00 support 1.18x 1 months ago
$95.00 resistance 1.13x 19 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (114 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.10% 0.55% 60.53% 12.15% -5.24%
1 Day 0.92% 0.48% 54.39% 19.32% -11.85%
1 Week 2.10% -0.04% 50.00% 84.65% -20.37%
2 Weeks 2.27% -0.15% 47.37% 79.80% -16.66%
1 Month 2.83% 0.79% 52.21% 92.71% -25.29%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.1%52.6%38
Feb0.3%39.5%38
Mar-2.8%47.4%38
Apr7.7%55.3%38
May4.7%60.5%38
Jun1.0%55.3%38
Jul3.7%50.0%38
Aug-0.2%47.4%38
Sep-2.6%42.1%38
Oct-0.5%44.7%38
Nov4.6%65.8%38
Dec0.9%44.7%38

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.04% 42.6% 1807
Tuesday 0.21% 45.1% 1967
Wednesday 0.11% 42.6% 1966
Thursday 0.09% 44.4% 1930
Friday 0.16% 42.4% 1920

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 106.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.6%

Founder-led management: Steve Hilton (Executive Chairman of the Board)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings13
Net Value-$5.0M
Net Shares Change-63,005
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lord Phillippe Chief Executive Officer -$2.9M 2 1 sell
Sferruzza Hilla EVP- Chief Financial Officer -$834,328.758 1 N/A
Clinton Malissia EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary -$394,617.388 1 N/A
HILTON STEVEN J Executive Chairman -$368,106.923 1 N/A
Feliciano Javier EVP Chief People Officer -$272,930.966 1 N/A
Sasser Alison SVP - Chief Accounting Officer -$144,695.63 3 1 sell
Woffinden Austin M EVP, Corp. Ops & Strategy -$10,982.4 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-19 – 2026-02-25 12 7 -$4.9M 12 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-13 Sasser Alison SVP - Chief Accounting Officer -$79,066.03 Transaction at $62.11, now +18.2%
2026-02-19 Lord Phillippe Chief Executive Officer -$400,350 Transaction at $80.07, now -8.3%
2026-02-25 Clinton Malissia EVP - Gen. Counsel, Secretary -$394,617.388 Transaction at $76.11, now -3.5%
2026-02-19 Sasser Alison SVP - Chief Accounting Officer -$54,032.8 Transaction at $79.46, now -7.6%
2026-02-25 Lord Phillippe Chief Executive Officer -$2.5M Transaction at $76.49, now -4.0%
2026-02-25 Sferruzza Hilla EVP- Chief Financial Officer -$834,328.758 Transaction at $76.35, now -3.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Meritage Corporation (MTH) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MTH on Trend Edge →