GRBK — Green Brick Partners Inc

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates GRBK Bullish with a Setup Score of 70, net conviction 42, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score70
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction42
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Green Brick Partners Inc

Green Brick Partners, Inc., the third largest homebuilder in Dallas-Fort Worth, is a diversified homebuilding and land development company that operates in Texas, Georgia, and Florida. Green Brick owns five subsidiary homebuilders in Texas (CB JENI Homes, Normandy Homes, Southgate Homes, Trophy Signature Homes, and a 90% interest in Centre Living Homes), as well as a 50% interest in a homebuilder in Atlanta, Georgia (The Providence Group) and an … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$72.77
Market Cap$3.05B
Float29.9M
Shares Outstanding43.0M
P/E (Forward)10.63
P/E (TTM)10.74
Price/Sales (TTM)1.55
vs. Analyst Target-14.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin14.79%
Operating Margin (TTM)19.55%
Revenue (TTM)$1.97B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-8.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$62.00 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $976M $114M $235M $126M
2021 $1.40B $190M $362M $231M
2022 $1.76B $292M $523M $399M
2023 $1.78B $285M $548M $395M
2024 $2.10B $382M $704M $517M
2025 $2.04B $313M $636M $443M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $499M $77.9M
Dec 2025 $494M $78.4M
Mar 2026 $465M $60.9M
Jun 2026 $494M $74.2M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.4%
Institutional Ownership83.4%
Short Float5.5%
% of All Funds Holding3.65%
Number of Funds Holding321

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$73.71Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$69.87Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$66.76Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$57.58Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$69.63Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$66.27Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$62.13Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$79.00 resistance 1.01x 0 months ago
$68.00 support 1.26x 1 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (74 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.72% 1.28% 59.46% 28.26% -21.05%
1 Day 0.92% 0.39% 51.35% 38.46% -12.20%
1 Week 0.53% -0.12% 47.30% 78.18% -26.09%
2 Weeks 0.49% -1.17% 43.24% 98.51% -45.81%
1 Month 2.49% -0.18% 47.22% 140.30% -45.10%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (53 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.6%52.6%19
Feb2.0%42.1%19
Mar7.5%57.9%19
Apr-3.9%42.1%19
May4.7%42.1%19
Jun-4.9%52.6%19
Jul5.6%50.0%20
Aug-3.7%47.4%19
Sep0.4%47.4%19
Oct13.6%47.4%19
Nov1.5%57.9%19
Dec3.1%52.6%19

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 43.8% 906
Tuesday 0.06% 45.6% 991
Wednesday 0.22% 46.7% 989
Thursday 0.29% 45.1% 971
Friday 0.22% 46.5% 966

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 83.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.4%

Founder-led management: Jim Brickman (Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Director)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-10,249
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings0
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Olsen Kathleen -$538,575 1 1 sell
Press Richard S -$532,980 2 2 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-11 Press Richard S -$352,930 Transaction at $70.59, now +3.1%
2026-03-04 Olsen Kathleen -$538,575 Transaction at $71.81, now +1.3%
2026-03-04 Press Richard S -$180,050 Transaction at $72.02, now +1.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for GRBK on Trend Edge →