TOL — Toll Brothers Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Toll Brothers Inc

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational ameniti… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$126.22
Market Cap$12.58B
Float93.9M
Shares Outstanding94.7M
P/E (Forward)10.94
P/E (TTM)9.65
Price/Sales (TTM)1.11
vs. Analyst Target+33.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin12.26%
Operating Margin (TTM)10.83%
Revenue (TTM)$11.25B
Earnings Growth (YoY)25.10%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$168.38 (19 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $7.08B $447M $1.42B $619M
2021 $8.79B $834M $1.94B $1.10B
2022 $10.28B $1.29B $2.49B $1.59B
2023 $9.99B $1.37B $2.63B $1.80B
2024 $10.85B $1.57B $3.02B $2.12B
2025 $10.97B $1.35B $2.85B $1.87B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Apr 2025 $2.74B $352M
Jul 2025 $2.95B $370M
Oct 2025 $3.42B $447M
Jan 2026 $2.15B $211M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.7%
Institutional Ownership92.6%
Short Float3.7%
% of All Funds Holding8.88%
Number of Funds Holding730

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$137.30Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$140.60Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$130.31Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$104.15Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$139.37Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$131.10Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$114.72Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$153.00 resistance 1.05x 1 months ago
$104.00 support 1.03x 10 months ago
$164.00 resistance 1.28x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.14% 0.14% 54.92% 10.05% -10.61%
1 Day -0.10% -0.37% 45.90% 13.79% -14.61%
1 Week 0.58% -0.11% 48.36% 16.06% -16.49%
2 Weeks -0.08% -0.49% 45.08% 20.35% -30.75%
1 Month -0.42% 0.75% 51.64% 27.67% -51.10%

Next earnings: May 19, 2026 (1 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.9%62.5%40
Feb2.8%52.5%40
Mar-0.1%52.5%40
Apr1.0%47.5%40
May3.0%56.4%39
Jun-0.7%43.6%39
Jul0.9%51.3%39
Aug3.3%65.0%40
Sep-1.6%42.5%40
Oct-0.5%45.0%40
Nov4.7%72.5%40
Dec4.7%57.5%40

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 43.6% 1893
Tuesday 0.15% 45.8% 2059
Wednesday 0.22% 46.4% 2058
Thursday 0.07% 46.4% 2018
Friday 0.06% 45.7% 2009

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 92.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.7%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings16
Net Value-$17.8M
Net Shares Change-68,028
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings8
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Yearley Douglas C. Jr. Chief Executive Officer -$15.7M 4 4 sell
Parahus Robert President and COO -$1.3M 1 1 sell
Connor Martin P. Chief Financial Officer -$735,665.125 1 1 sell
SHAPIRO PAUL E -$456,246.999 1 1 sell
McLean John A -$281,774.749 1 1 sell
East Stephen F. -$139,700 1 1 sell
Sandstrom Katherine M +$8,627.16 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-15 – 2025-07-17 3 3 -$440,583.262 1 C-suite
2025-08-22 – 2025-09-02 5 5 -$5.9M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-26 Yearley Douglas C. Jr. Chief Executive Officer -$5.8M Transaction at $96.02, now +31.5%
2026-03-02 Yearley Douglas C. Jr. Chief Executive Officer -$3.4M Transaction at $95.38, now +32.3%
2026-04-16 East Stephen F. -$139,700 Transaction at $139.70, now -9.6%
2026-03-04 McLean John A -$281,774.749 Transaction at $92.52, now +36.4%
2025-10-17 Sandstrom Katherine M +$8,627.16 Transaction at $126.87, now -0.5%
2025-08-22 Parahus Robert President and COO -$1.3M Transaction at $130.84, now -3.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TOL on Trend Edge →