DLTR — Dollar Tree Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates DLTR Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 26, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction26
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Dollar Tree Inc

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, art… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$118.64
Market Cap$22.26B
Float177.5M
Shares Outstanding187.6M
P/E (Forward)16.95
P/E (TTM)14.45
Price/Sales (TTM)1.11
vs. Analyst Target+14.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin8.04%
Operating Margin (TTM)6.21%
Revenue (TTM)$20.07B
Earnings Growth (YoY)197.20%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$136.15 (28 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2021 $25.51B $1.34B $7.79B $2.57B
2022 $26.32B $1.33B $7.74B $2.53B
2023 $15.41B $1.62B $5.78B $2.46B
2024 $16.78B -$998M $6.02B $2.17B
2025 $17.58B -$3.03B $6.29B $2.02B
2026 $19.41B $1.28B $7.07B $2.36B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Oct 2025 $4.75B $245M
Jan 2026 $5.45B $506M
Apr 2026 $4.98B $347M
Jul 2026 $4.89B $515M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership107.7%
Short Float4.2%
% of All Funds Holding9.78%
Number of Funds Holding860

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$122.65Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$117.02Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$109.01Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$112.63Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$117.45Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$108.54Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$107.51Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$98.00 support 1.16x 4 months ago
$91.00 support 1.06x 15 months ago
$65.00 support 1.48x 22 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (110 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.20% 0.09% 51.82% 7.49% -5.99%
1 Day 0.39% -0.11% 46.36% 16.70% -9.62%
1 Week 0.45% -0.03% 50.00% 34.90% -15.97%
2 Weeks 1.00% -0.39% 49.09% 32.98% -15.11%
1 Month 2.87% 2.73% 61.47% 32.54% -20.48%

Next earnings: December 2, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.0%58.1%31
Feb0.6%38.7%31
Mar2.6%64.5%31
Apr3.5%68.8%32
May4.5%65.6%32
Jun2.2%62.5%32
Jul2.9%65.6%32
Aug-4.9%31.3%32
Sep0.3%53.1%32
Oct2.8%58.1%31
Nov5.2%74.2%31
Dec-0.7%54.8%31

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.11% 49.6% 1495
Tuesday 0.05% 48.7% 1631
Wednesday 0.09% 50.1% 1631
Thursday 0.11% 50.8% 1599
Friday 0.10% 50.3% 1591

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 107.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$731,539.8
Net Shares Change-11,901,769
% of Float-6.7%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Mantle Ridge LP -$248M 1 1 sell
Aflatooni Robert Chief Information Officer -$457,309.8 3 3 sell
Beebe Brent A. Chief Merchandising Officer -$274,230 1 1 sell
Stahl Stephanie -$155,791.95 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-01 Aflatooni Robert Chief Information Officer -$315,025 Transaction at $126.01, now -5.8%
2026-09-04 Stahl Stephanie -$155,791.95 Transaction at $131.47, now -9.8%
2025-12-10 Beebe Brent A. Chief Merchandising Officer -$274,230 Transaction at $124.65, now -4.8%
2025-10-21 Aflatooni Robert Chief Information Officer -$119,328.3 Transaction at $94.70, now +25.3%
2026-06-25 Mantle Ridge LP -$248M Transaction at $111.31, now +6.6%
2026-01-08 Aflatooni Robert Chief Information Officer -$22,956.5 Transaction at $131.18, now -9.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for DLTR on Trend Edge →