COST — Costco Wholesale Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates COST Bearish with a Setup Score of 11, net conviction 30, actionability 4. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score11
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction30
Actionability4 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Costco Wholesale Corp

Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, he… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$916.25
Market Cap$404.88B
Float440.9M
Shares Outstanding443.5M
P/E (Forward)42.37
P/E (TTM)47.85
Price/Sales (TTM)1.38
vs. Analyst Target+17.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.01%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.67%
Revenue (TTM)$293.59B
Earnings Growth (YoY)45.50%
Dividend Rate5.9%
Analyst Target Price$1080.33 (38 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $166.76B $4.00B $21.82B $7.18B
2021 $195.93B $5.01B $25.25B $8.63B
2022 $226.95B $5.84B $27.57B $9.90B
2023 $242.29B $6.29B $29.70B $10.72B
2024 $254.45B $7.37B $32.09B $12.15B
2025 $275.24B $8.10B $35.35B $13.40B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Aug 2025 $86.16B $2.61B
Nov 2025 $67.31B $2.00B
Feb 2026 $69.60B $2.04B
May 2026 $70.53B $2.19B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership73.7%
Short Float1.8%
% of All Funds Holding47.80%
Number of Funds Holding3,929

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$976.84Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$958.15Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$965.33Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$778.89Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$945.74Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$959.06Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$830.39Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$862.00 support 1.09x 5 months ago
$1050.00 resistance 1.35x 15 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (95 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.18% 0.00% 47.37% 4.01% -4.83%
1 Day -0.15% 0.09% 51.58% 6.58% -8.59%
1 Week 0.13% 0.12% 52.63% 9.80% -14.12%
2 Weeks 0.63% 0.53% 52.63% 17.89% -11.43%
1 Month 2.04% 1.83% 61.70% 18.00% -11.48%

Next earnings: September 24, 2026 (73 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.9%60.0%40
Feb1.5%52.5%40
Mar1.6%52.5%40
Apr-0.7%57.5%40
May0.8%65.0%40
Jun2.6%57.5%40
Jul1.3%61.5%39
Aug-0.5%50.0%40
Sep0.1%52.5%40
Oct2.5%62.5%40
Nov4.1%75.0%40
Dec-0.2%45.0%40

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 47.3% 1900
Tuesday 0.11% 51.1% 2067
Wednesday 0.11% 50.6% 2065
Thursday 0.10% 48.9% 2026
Friday -0.01% 47.7% 2015

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 73.7%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings16
Net Value-$22.4M
Net Shares Change-24,862
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Miller Russell D Sr. Executive Vice President -$4.5M 2 2 sell
Adamo Claudine Executive Vice President -$3.9M 2 2 sell
POLIT JAVIER Executive Vice President -$2.3M 1 1 sell
Wilcox William Richard Executive Vice President -$2.2M 1 1 sell
Klauer James C Executive Vice President -$1.4M 1 1 sell
DENMAN KENNETH D -$847,345.463 1 1 sell
Jones Teresa A. Executive Vice President -$838,318.195 1 1 sell
Frates Caton Executive Vice President -$695,100 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-15 – 2026-01-23 3 3 -$2.7M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-25 DENMAN KENNETH D -$847,345.463 Transaction at $957.45, now -4.3%
2026-01-15 Klauer James C Executive Vice President -$1.4M Transaction at $939.00, now -2.4%
2026-04-01 Frates Caton Executive Vice President -$695,100 Transaction at $993.00, now -7.7%
2026-03-11 Adamo Claudine Executive Vice President -$732,205.33 Transaction at $1003.02, now -8.7%
2026-01-23 Jones Teresa A. Executive Vice President -$838,318.195 Transaction at $986.26, now -7.1%
2026-01-12 Miller Russell D Sr. Executive Vice President -$1.4M Transaction at $916.32, now -0.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for COST on Trend Edge →