VLO — Valero Energy Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates VLO Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 54, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction54
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The company produces California Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (CARBOB) and Conventional Blend… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$280.69
Market Cap$83.51B
Float295.4M
Shares Outstanding296.9M
P/E (Forward)9.63
P/E (TTM)20.67
Price/Sales (TTM)0.71
vs. Analyst Target-4.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.57%
Operating Margin (TTM)6.05%
Revenue (TTM)$117.84B
Earnings Growth (YoY)317.90%
Dividend Rate4.8%
Analyst Target Price$267.83 (21 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $64.91B -$1.43B -$788M $904M
2021 $113.98B $930M $3.08B $4.55B
2022 $176.38B $11.53B $16.75B $18.34B
2023 $144.77B $8.84B $12.89B $14.66B
2024 $129.88B $2.77B $4.76B $7.03B
2025 $122.69B $2.35B $5.37B $6.72B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $29.89B $714M
Sep 2025 $32.17B $1.09B
Dec 2025 $31.73B $1.13B
Mar 2026 $32.38B $1.26B

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership87.9%
Short Float3.7%
% of All Funds Holding21.15%
Number of Funds Holding1,738

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$254.22Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$210.62Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$173.18Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$150.16Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$218.08Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$176.91Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$157.43Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$215.00 support 1.67x 3 months ago
$164.00 support 1.24x 5 months ago
$153.00 support 1.01x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (121 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.41% 0.19% 53.72% 8.44% -5.08%
1 Day -0.13% -0.39% 41.32% 12.73% -5.13%
1 Week 0.10% -0.36% 49.59% 24.03% -13.90%
2 Weeks 0.56% 0.09% 50.41% 30.84% -27.27%
1 Month 1.83% 1.01% 55.00% 41.69% -30.01%

Next earnings: July 30, 2026 (18 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.5%70.5%44
Feb1.7%53.3%45
Mar5.3%64.4%45
Apr2.7%51.1%45
May0.7%53.3%45
Jun-2.9%40.0%45
Jul-0.5%59.1%44
Aug1.0%52.3%44
Sep-1.3%43.2%44
Oct1.8%59.1%44
Nov1.3%56.8%44
Dec1.7%59.1%44

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 45.0% 2117
Tuesday 0.06% 47.1% 2301
Wednesday 0.14% 48.5% 2298
Thursday 0.04% 46.5% 2256
Friday 0.18% 49.1% 2242

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 87.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings17
Net Value-$27.2M
Net Shares Change1,044
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Fisher Eric A SVP -$7.7M 4 5 sell
Ffolkes Marie A -$122,261.86 1 1 sell
Diaz Fred M -$122,261.86 1 1 sell
Majoras Deborah P -$122,261.86 1 1 sell
Greene Kimberly S, -$122,261.86 1 1 sell
WILKINS RAYFORD JR -$72,735.04 1 1 sell
WEISENBURGER RANDALL J -$72,735.04 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-01-23 – 2026-01-23 5 5 -$17.8M 5 C-suite
2026-05-07 – 2026-05-20 8 8 -$2.6M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-30 Fisher Eric A SVP -$2.0M Transaction at $268.17, now +4.7%
2026-06-18 Fisher Eric A SVP -$1.8M Transaction at $236.90, now +18.5%
2026-05-20 Fisher Eric A SVP -$1.9M Transaction at $251.61, now +11.6%
2026-03-12 Fisher Eric A SVP -$2.0M Transaction at $233.14, now +20.4%
2026-05-07 Ffolkes Marie A -$122,261.86 Transaction at $239.26, now +17.3%
2026-05-07 Diaz Fred M -$122,261.86 Transaction at $239.26, now +17.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for VLO on Trend Edge →