MPC — Marathon Petroleum Corp

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Marathon Petroleum Corp

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$255.03
Market Cap$72.64B
Float291.0M
Shares Outstanding291.9M
P/E (Forward)7.05
P/E (TTM)16.39
Price/Sales (TTM)0.53
vs. Analyst Target+1.5% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.41%
Operating Margin (TTM)3.56%
Revenue (TTM)$135.95B
Earnings Growth (YoY)350.70%
Dividend Rate3.9%
Analyst Target Price$258.78 (20 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $69.78B -$9.83B $671M -$8.90B
2021 $119.98B $9.74B $6.61B $7.45B
2022 $177.45B $14.52B $22.57B $24.88B
2023 $148.38B $9.68B $16.51B $18.56B
2024 $138.86B $3.44B $9.29B $10.60B
2025 $132.70B $4.05B $10.00B $11.68B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $33.80B $1.22B
Sep 2025 $34.81B $1.37B
Dec 2025 $32.57B $1.53B
Mar 2026 $34.57B $511M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership79.4%
Short Float1.9%
% of All Funds Holding21.46%
Number of Funds Holding1,764

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$235.88Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$198.59Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$175.37Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$155.59Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$204.56Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$178.14Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$165.65Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$204.00 support 1.48x 1 months ago
$173.00 support 1.01x 2 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (60 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.28% 0.36% 55.00% 9.11% -8.52%
1 Day 0.43% 0.87% 58.33% 9.58% -9.37%
1 Week 1.10% 1.29% 55.00% 23.63% -21.36%
2 Weeks 2.30% 3.01% 62.71% 38.07% -22.10%
1 Month 2.88% 3.38% 62.71% 38.95% -19.77%

Next earnings: August 4, 2026 (78 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.3%73.3%15
Feb2.5%60.0%15
Mar2.7%66.7%15
Apr1.0%60.0%15
May0.2%57.1%14
Jun1.2%57.1%14
Jul5.1%93.3%15
Aug0.1%60.0%15
Sep-1.9%40.0%15
Oct5.5%80.0%15
Nov4.4%53.3%15
Dec-0.8%46.7%15

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.01% 52.1% 701
Tuesday 0.18% 54.7% 769
Wednesday 0.05% 49.6% 766
Thursday 0.05% 54.0% 752
Friday 0.22% 56.6% 752

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 79.4%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings6
Net Value-$3.4M
Net Shares Change-18,665
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Rucker Kim K.W. -$1.3M 1 N/A
Hessling Ricky D. Chief Commercial Officer -$1.3M 3 3 sell
Benson Molly R Chief Legal Ofc and Corp Sec -$1.1M 1 N/A
Henschen Michael A II Ex VP, Refining -$1.1M 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-03-17 Hessling Ricky D. Chief Commercial Officer -$371,020.68 Transaction at $228.18, now +11.8%
2026-03-13 Hessling Ricky D. Chief Commercial Officer -$644,401.368 Transaction at $226.34, now +12.7%
2026-05-15 Hessling Ricky D. Chief Commercial Officer -$250,000 Transaction at $250.00, now +2.0%
2026-02-13 Henschen Michael A II Ex VP, Refining -$1.1M Transaction at $202.32, now +26.1%
2025-07-07 Rucker Kim K.W. -$1.3M Transaction at $175.00, now +45.7%
2025-08-19 Benson Molly R Chief Legal Ofc and Corp Sec -$1.1M Transaction at $112.84, now +126.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MPC on Trend Edge →