PBF — PBF Energy Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PBF Bullish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 65, actionability 14. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score30
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction65
Actionability14 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About PBF Energy Inc

PBF Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the refining and supplying of petroleum products. It operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics. The company produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt; diesel fuel; and unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$69.73
Market Cap$8.25B
Float101.4M
Shares Outstanding118.5M
P/E (Forward)11.99
P/E (TTM)6.48
Price/Sales (TTM)0.24
vs. Analyst Target-3.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin3.94%
Operating Margin (TTM)8.80%
Revenue (TTM)$34.37B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-69.90%
Dividend Rate1.1%
Analyst Target Price$67.23 (15 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $15.12B -$1.39B -$1.63B -$492M
2021 $27.25B $231M $887M $1.13B
2022 $46.83B $2.88B $4.68B $4.36B
2023 $38.32B $2.14B $2.40B $3.62B
2024 $33.12B -$534M -$372M -$2.4M
2025 $29.33B -$159M -$571M -$254M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $7.65B $170M
Dec 2025 $7.14B $78.4M
Mar 2026 $7.90B $198M
Jun 2026 $11.68B $906M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership14.4%
Institutional Ownership89.6%
Short Float10.9%
% of All Funds Holding4.97%
Number of Funds Holding437

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$61.76Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$43.65Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$34.04Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$38.58Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$44.99Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$34.59Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$38.65Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$46.00 support 1.05x 0 months ago
$38.00 support 1.44x 4 months ago
$27.40 support 1.10x 6 months ago
$22.70 support 1.23x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (55 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.35% 0.21% 63.64% 4.26% -2.55%
1 Day 1.18% 1.16% 61.82% 14.06% -7.65%
1 Week 1.99% 1.64% 52.73% 45.95% -15.58%
2 Weeks 3.81% 1.44% 56.36% 52.10% -16.92%
1 Month 6.28% 3.80% 61.11% 78.91% -20.24%

Next earnings: October 18, 2026 (52 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.6%64.3%14
Feb2.2%50.0%14
Mar2.8%57.1%14
Apr2.7%50.0%14
May-1.2%42.9%14
Jun0.4%42.9%14
Jul1.8%57.1%14
Aug0.9%46.2%13
Sep1.6%61.5%13
Oct5.0%61.5%13
Nov6.5%61.5%13
Dec-2.3%46.2%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.21% 50.2% 647
Tuesday 0.19% 55.4% 708
Wednesday -0.07% 47.8% 705
Thursday -0.03% 48.7% 692
Friday 0.22% 51.0% 690

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 89.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 14.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings69
Net Value-$54.8M
Net Shares Change-16,585,158
% of Float-16.4%
C-Suite Filings21
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lucey Matthew C. CEO & President -$20.9M 2 2 sell
Canty Trecia M SVP and General Counsel -$10.9M 2 2 sell
Davis Paul T Senior Vice President -$8.1M 2 2 sell
Ho Tai Wendy Senior Vice President, HR -$1.9M 2 2 sell
Fedena James E. Senior Vice President -$1.8M 1 1 sell
Marino Joseph Daniel SVP, Chief Financial Officer -$222,782.92 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-04 – 2025-11-12 5 5 -$4.1M 4 C-suite
2026-03-24 – 2026-04-01 9 5 -$181M 3 C-suite
2026-08-03 – 2026-08-17 16 8 -$154M 10 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-05 Fedena James E. Senior Vice President -$1.8M Transaction at $71.83, now -2.9%
2026-08-17 Lucey Matthew C. CEO & President -$11.6M Transaction at $51.99, now +34.1%
2026-08-14 Canty Trecia M SVP and General Counsel -$7.5M Transaction at $59.89, now +16.4%
2026-08-04 Lucey Matthew C. CEO & President -$9.3M Transaction at $51.24, now +36.1%
2026-08-17 Canty Trecia M SVP and General Counsel -$3.4M Transaction at $51.38, now +35.7%
2026-08-13 Davis Paul T Senior Vice President -$3.6M Transaction at $42.16, now +65.4%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for PBF Energy Inc (PBF) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PBF on Trend Edge →