UGP — Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates UGP Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 63, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction63
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$6.70
Market Cap$6.98B
Float634.7M
Shares Outstanding1.07B
P/E (Forward)11.81
P/E (TTM)10.40
Price/Sales (TTM)0.05
vs. Analyst Target+0.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin2.26%
Operating Margin (TTM)7.57%
Revenue (TTM)$153.26B
Earnings Growth (YoY)44.30%
Dividend Rate0.4%
Analyst Target Price$6.72 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $74.06B $893M $4.00B $2.56B
2021 $109.73B $850M $4.90B $2.76B
2022 $143.63B $1.80B $7.36B $4.50B
2023 $126.05B $2.44B $9.32B $6.36B
2024 $133.50B $2.36B $8.62B $5.06B
2025 $142.37B $2.45B $9.36B $7.81B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $37.03B $709M
Dec 2025 $37.95B $323M
Mar 2026 $36.75B $876M
Jun 2026 $42.46B $1.58B

Ownership & Float

Institutional Ownership5.6%
Short Float0.4%
% of All Funds Holding2.04%
Number of Funds Holding179

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$6.09Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$5.22Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$4.28Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$4.02Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$5.26Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$4.27Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$4.26Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$5.00 support 1.75x 0 months ago
$4.90 support 1.72x 4 months ago
$3.00 support 1.16x 13 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (99 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.16% 0.00% 48.48% 10.67% -6.91%
1 Day -0.02% 0.11% 50.51% 16.67% -9.34%
1 Week 0.39% 0.41% 53.54% 20.67% -16.50%
2 Weeks 1.15% 0.95% 54.08% 29.33% -25.75%
1 Month 2.00% 2.47% 60.20% 44.33% -50.91%

Next earnings: August 12, 2026

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.1%63.0%27
Feb-0.0%66.7%27
Mar0.8%55.6%27
Apr0.9%59.3%27
May-2.8%25.9%27
Jun2.1%63.0%27
Jul1.0%48.1%27
Aug0.7%46.2%26
Sep-1.5%50.0%26
Oct2.0%65.4%26
Nov3.0%55.6%27
Dec2.4%55.6%27

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.12% 46.8% 1270
Tuesday 0.19% 50.3% 1387
Wednesday 0.12% 48.4% 1387
Thursday 0.01% 47.3% 1360
Friday 0.09% 48.9% 1355

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 5.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value+N/A
Net Shares Change-47,294
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Amaral Decio de Sampaio CEO Hidrovias +N/A 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-06-09 Amaral Decio de Sampaio CEO Hidrovias +N/A N/A

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR (UGP) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for UGP on Trend Edge →