TMP — Tompkins Financial Corporation

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TMP Bullish with a Setup Score of 54, net conviction 44, actionability 67. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score54
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction44
Actionability67 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Tompkins Financial Corporation

Tompkins Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides commercial and consumer banking, leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning and wealth management, and insurance services. It operates through two segments: Banking, and Wealth Management. The company accepts various deposit products, including checking and savings accounts, time deposits, and IRA products. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$91.48
Market Cap$1.32B
Float13.0M
Shares Outstanding14.4M
P/E (Forward)12.85
P/E (TTM)7.86
Price/Sales (TTM)3.00
vs. Analyst Target+1.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin37.99%
Operating Margin (TTM)41.93%
Revenue (TTM)$441M
Earnings Growth (YoY)32.80%
Dividend Rate2.7%
Analyst Target Price$92.50 (2 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $325M $77.6M $279M $109M
2021 $317M $89.3M $301M $115M
2022 $325M $85.0M $301M $121M
2023 $297M $9.5M $297M $12.0M
2024 $432M $70.8M $289M $103M
2025 $579M $161M $435M $233M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $116M $21.5M
Sep 2025 $122M $23.7M
Dec 2025 $227M $96.2M
Mar 2026 $115M $26.1M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership6.5%
Institutional Ownership70.6%
Short Float1.9%
% of All Funds Holding2.32%
Number of Funds Holding191

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$88.87Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$78.31Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$71.58Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$65.10Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$79.72Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$72.59Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$63.83Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$86.00 support 1.55x 0 months ago
$49.00 support 1.16x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (97 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.08% 0.00% 48.45% 2.37% -2.77%
1 Day 0.32% 0.00% 49.48% 9.88% -4.11%
1 Week -0.17% -0.33% 46.39% 13.53% -11.71%
2 Weeks -0.03% 0.11% 51.55% 25.04% -15.38%
1 Month 0.50% -0.13% 46.88% 27.13% -34.20%

Next earnings: July 24, 2026 (12 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.6%37.5%40
Feb-0.5%47.5%40
Mar1.2%57.5%40
Apr-0.9%35.0%40
May-0.1%40.0%40
Jun1.8%65.0%40
Jul2.1%50.0%40
Aug-0.2%45.0%40
Sep0.6%57.5%40
Oct0.6%52.5%40
Nov2.7%60.0%40
Dec0.7%55.0%40

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.08% 41.5% 1905
Tuesday 0.05% 41.2% 2073
Wednesday -0.02% 39.4% 2071
Thursday 0.07% 41.2% 2031
Friday 0.09% 40.1% 2019

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 70.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 6.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value-$43,458.926
Net Shares Change-3,662
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Rahilly Ita M +$199,999.938 2 2 buy
DeMilia David M EVP, Pres of TCB Hudson Valley -$43,458.926 3 3 buy
BOYCE DAVID S EVP, Pres. & CEO Tompkins Ins. +N/A 1 1 sell
Anderson Johanna B EVP, President TCB CNY +N/A 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-19 DeMilia David M EVP, Pres of TCB Hudson Valley -$21,823.645 Transaction at $82.62, now +10.7%
2026-05-26 Rahilly Ita M +$99,999.97 Transaction at $85.90, now +6.5%
2026-02-11 DeMilia David M EVP, Pres of TCB Hudson Valley +$435.971 Transaction at $70.13, now +30.5%
2025-11-10 DeMilia David M EVP, Pres of TCB Hudson Valley -$22,071.253 Transaction at $65.62, now +39.4%
2025-11-24 Rahilly Ita M +$99,999.969 Transaction at $68.36, now +33.8%
2025-11-03 BOYCE DAVID S EVP, Pres. & CEO Tompkins Ins. +N/A N/A

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TMP on Trend Edge →