TFIN — Triumph Financial, Inc.

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates TFIN Bullish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 54, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction54
Actionability0 (no mans land)

Key signals behind this score

About Triumph Financial, Inc.

Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services in the United States. It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit; and loan products, such as commercial real estate, commercial construction, land, and land development, residential real estate, agriculture, and consumer loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans, equ… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$73.68
Market Cap$1.77B
Float21.3M
Shares Outstanding23.9M
P/E (Forward)10.55
P/E (TTM)49.95
Price/Sales (TTM)3.89
vs. Analyst Target+16.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin8.50%
Operating Margin (TTM)21.28%
Revenue (TTM)$455M
Earnings Growth (YoY)193.30%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$85.80 (5 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $373M $64.0M $297M $104M
2021 $442M $113M $432M $168M
2022 $503M $102M $478M $166M
2023 $418M $37.9M $418M $37.9M
2024 $488M $16.1M $397M $53.8M
2025 $516M $25.4M $433M $47.9M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $109M $1.7M
Dec 2025 $140M $19.2M
Mar 2026 $122M $6.4M
Jun 2026 $79.6M $11.4M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.3%
Institutional Ownership98.9%
Short Float11.0%
% of All Funds Holding2.58%
Number of Funds Holding227

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$76.86Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$67.22Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$62.17Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$67.48Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$66.07Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$62.67Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$69.21Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$60.00 support 1.16x 3 months ago
$54.00 support 1.02x 4 months ago
$55.00 support 1.10x 7 months ago
$50.00 support 1.36x 9 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (48 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.45% -0.75% 39.58% 13.18% -7.22%
1 Day -0.69% -1.49% 41.67% 15.58% -14.25%
1 Week 0.24% -0.52% 47.92% 23.71% -21.29%
2 Weeks 1.18% 1.06% 58.33% 20.74% -16.66%
1 Month 2.71% 3.16% 61.70% 30.92% -25.63%

Next earnings: October 14, 2026 (48 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.7%58.3%12
Feb3.3%50.0%12
Mar-2.5%50.0%12
Apr-3.0%41.7%12
May-0.1%58.3%12
Jun1.6%50.0%12
Jul7.6%83.3%12
Aug1.0%54.5%11
Sep2.4%63.6%11
Oct4.4%45.5%11
Nov9.7%100.0%11
Dec-1.3%41.7%12

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.11% 52.2% 556
Tuesday 0.24% 51.4% 611
Wednesday 0.02% 46.7% 608
Thursday 0.00% 48.4% 595
Friday 0.10% 50.1% 593

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 98.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.3%

Founder-led management: Aaron P. Graft (Founder, Vice Chairman, President & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings10
Net Value-$991,055.02
Net Shares Change-13,876
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings10
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Schreyer Edward Joseph EVP, Chief Operating Officer -$846,933.25 3 N/A
Nelson Adam D EVP and General Counsel -$703,342.5 3 1 sell
Ritterbusch Todd President - TBK Bank, SSB +$469,070 1 1 buy
Graft Aaron P President & CEO +$108,810.63 2 1 buy
Voss William B. Chief Financial Officer -$18,659.9 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-26 – 2025-09-04 3 3 -$1.0M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-05 Nelson Adam D EVP and General Counsel -$296,437.5 Transaction at $79.05, now -6.8%
2026-05-11 Ritterbusch Todd President - TBK Bank, SSB +$469,070 Transaction at $67.01, now +10.0%
2026-03-02 Graft Aaron P President & CEO +$499,980.63 Transaction at $55.87, now +31.9%
2026-08-21 Schreyer Edward Joseph EVP, Chief Operating Officer -$213,875 Transaction at $73.75, now -0.1%
2026-03-12 Voss William B. Chief Financial Officer -$18,659.9 Transaction at $37.72, now +95.3%
2026-05-26 Schreyer Edward Joseph EVP, Chief Operating Officer -$193,430 Transaction at $66.70, now +10.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for TFIN on Trend Edge →