Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It engages in originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company's loan portfolio is comprised of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
| Current Price | $11.48 |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $240M |
| Float | 18.0M |
| Shares Outstanding | 21.2M |
| P/E (Forward) | 7.44 |
| P/E (TTM) | 7.86 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 4.82 |
| vs. Analyst Target | +42.6% to analyst PT |
| Profit Margin | 61.83% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | 54.34% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $49.8M |
| Earnings Growth (YoY) | -51.10% |
| Dividend Rate | 1.9% |
| Analyst Target Price | $16.38 (4 analysts) |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.08B | $9.50B | $11.08B | $9.50B |
| 2022 | $48.9M | $32.3M | -$3.84B | $34.91B |
| 2023 | $57.3M | $38.7M | $57.3M | $44.5M |
| 2024 | $54.8M | $37.0M | $54.8M | $44.2M |
| 2025 | $63.1M | $36.0M | $54.8M | $36.0M |
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | $14.6M | $8.9M |
| Sep 2025 | $13.7M | $8.9M |
| Dec 2025 | $16.1M | $8.2M |
| Mar 2026 | $15.2M | $4.8M |
| Insider Ownership | 13.3% |
|---|---|
| Institutional Ownership | 32.6% |
| Short Float | 5.1% |
| % of All Funds Holding | 1.10% |
| Number of Funds Holding | 90 |
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
| Timeframe | SMA | Value | Trend Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | 10-Week SMA | $11.62 | Near-term / short-term trend |
| Weekly | 40-Week SMA | $12.47 | Medium-term trend |
| Weekly | 80-Week SMA | $13.68 | Cyclical trend (business cycle) |
| Weekly | 200-Week SMA | $14.64 | Secular trend (multi-year) |
| Monthly | 10-Month SMA | $12.42 | Near-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 20-Month SMA | $13.65 | Medium-term monthly trend |
| Monthly | 40-Month SMA | $14.45 | Secular monthly trend |
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
| Price Level | Type | Volume Ratio | Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| $11.30 | support | 1.07x | 0 months ago |
| $12.00 | resistance | 1.57x | 1 months ago |
| $14.20 | resistance | 1.29x | 7 months ago |
| $16.10 | resistance | 1.36x | 13 months ago |
| Timeframe | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 0.11% | 0.00% | 47.37% | 2.60% | -2.79% |
| 1 Day | 0.14% | 0.00% | 42.11% | 7.60% | -3.30% |
| 1 Week | -0.26% | -0.19% | 47.37% | 5.82% | -7.75% |
| 2 Weeks | -0.35% | -0.89% | 36.84% | 8.83% | -6.98% |
| 1 Month | 0.50% | -0.54% | 50.00% | 9.31% | -10.96% |
Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (58 days away)
Insufficient historical data for monthly seasonality analysis (requires 7+ years of data).
| Day | Avg Return | Win Rate | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 0.07% | 56.0% | 207 |
| Tuesday | -0.12% | 41.8% | 232 |
| Wednesday | -0.01% | 46.7% | 229 |
| Thursday | -0.13% | 45.1% | 224 |
| Friday | 0.09% | 56.2% | 226 |
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 32.6%
Total insider ownership: 13.3%
Founder-led management: John Mazarakis (Executive Chairman), Tony Cappell (Co-CEO & Director), Andreas Bodmeier (President & Chief Investment Officer)
| Total Filings | 6 |
|---|---|
| Net Value | +$359,054.5 |
| Net Shares Change | 53,650 |
| % of Float | 0.3% |
| C-Suite Filings | 4 |
| Clusters Detected | 1 |
| Name | Title | Net Value | Filings | Activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papastavrou Jason D | +$227,740.4 | 1 | 2 buy | |
| Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | +$195,225 | 2 | 2 buy |
| Sack Peter | Co-Chief Executive Officer | +$101,304.5 | 1 | 1 buy |
| Konigsberg Brandon | +$86,296 | 1 | 1 buy | |
| Kite David | Chief Operating Officer | +$62,525 | 1 | 1 buy |
| Period | Filings | Insiders | Net Value | Seniority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 – 2025-10-16 | 6 | 5 | +$673,090.9 | 4 C-suite |
| Date | Insider | Title | Net Value | Price After |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | Papastavrou Jason D | +$227,740.4 | Transaction at $12.66, now -9.3% | |
| 2025-10-16 | Sack Peter | Co-Chief Executive Officer | +$101,304.5 | Transaction at $12.43, now -7.6% |
| 2025-10-16 | Kite David | Chief Operating Officer | +$62,525 | Transaction at $12.51, now -8.2% |
| 2025-10-16 | Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | +$102,000 | Transaction at $12.75, now -10.0% |
| 2025-10-02 | Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | +$93,225 | Transaction at $12.43, now -7.6% |
| 2025-10-16 | Konigsberg Brandon | +$86,296 | Transaction at $12.33, now -6.9% |
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
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Get the full AI Consult analysis for REFI on Trend Edge →