MFA — MFA Financial Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MFA Bearish with a Setup Score of 71, net conviction 43, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score71
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction43
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About MFA Financial Inc

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitiona… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.23
Market Cap$915M
Float98.6M
Shares Outstanding101.1M
P/E (Forward)8.12
P/E (TTM)8.96
Price/Sales (TTM)3.02
vs. Analyst Target+51.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin48.98%
Operating Margin (TTM)52.99%
Revenue (TTM)$303M
Earnings Growth (YoY)61.90%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$14.00 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 -$556M -$679M -$1.11B -$633M
2021 $337M $329M $300M $433M
2022 -$67.6M -$232M -$111M $36.5M
2023 $234M $80.2M $200M $504M
2024 $280M $119M $244M $644M
2025 $875M $177M $842M $690M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $182M $48.1M
Dec 2025 $88.1M $54.3M
Mar 2026 $229M -$984,000
Jun 2026 N/A $46.8M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.9%
Institutional Ownership55.5%
Short Float3.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.45%
Number of Funds Holding201

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.39Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$9.66Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$9.70Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$10.40Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$9.61Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.68Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.35Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$9.60 resistance 1.12x 0 months ago
$11.10 resistance 1.40x 19 months ago
$12.30 resistance 1.36x 20 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (113 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.01% 0.00% 44.25% 8.19% -4.68%
1 Day 0.37% 0.00% 47.79% 11.72% -4.84%
1 Week 0.31% 0.24% 52.68% 12.75% -10.75%
2 Weeks 0.20% 0.21% 53.57% 17.97% -12.99%
1 Month 0.51% 1.12% 60.71% 26.14% -95.52%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (76 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan4.0%71.4%28
Feb0.7%57.1%28
Mar-4.4%42.9%28
Apr0.2%46.4%28
May0.7%58.6%29
Jun0.9%58.6%29
Jul0.5%48.3%29
Aug0.9%60.7%28
Sep-3.0%35.7%28
Oct-1.6%35.7%28
Nov4.0%71.4%28
Dec-2.0%25.0%28

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.06% 47.3% 1337
Tuesday 0.07% 48.6% 1462
Wednesday 0.07% 45.3% 1462
Thursday -0.00% 46.6% 1434
Friday 0.11% 47.9% 1425

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 55.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.9%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings1
Net Value-$28,027.5
Net Shares Change-2,775
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Lin Mei Sr. VP & Co-Controller -$28,027.5 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-09-16 Lin Mei Sr. VP & Co-Controller -$28,027.5 Transaction at $10.10, now -8.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for MFA Financial Inc (MFA) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MFA on Trend Edge →