NLY — Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NLY Bullish with a Setup Score of 39, net conviction 24, actionability 62. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score39
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction24
Actionability62 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Annaly Capital Management, Inc.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business. The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency commercial mortgage-backed securities; to-be-announced forward contracts; residential mortgag… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$22.86
Market Cap$17.55B
Float752.4M
Shares Outstanding753.7M
P/E (Forward)7.54
P/E (TTM)5.74
Price/Sales (TTM)5.39
vs. Analyst Target+6.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin90.68%
Operating Margin (TTM)91.65%
Revenue (TTM)$3.25B
Earnings Growth (YoY)3426.00%
Dividend Rate3.0%
Analyst Target Price$24.23 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.48B -$891M $1.44B $3.6M
2021 $751M $2.39B $702M $2.67B
2022 $4.15B $1.73B $4.11B $3.10B
2023 -$1.65B -$1.64B -$1.65B -$1.60B
2024 $6.36B $1.00B $6.29B $5.65B
2025 $6.70B $2.03B $6.69B $6.87B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $1.63B $832M
Dec 2025 $1.79B $1.01B
Mar 2026 $1.63B $283M
Jun 2026 -$1.63B $823M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.1%
Institutional Ownership61.6%
Short Float2.8%
% of All Funds Holding8.87%
Number of Funds Holding780

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$22.89Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$22.58Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$21.49Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$20.42Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$22.52Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$21.41Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$20.30Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$18.80 support 1.01x 12 months ago
$18.40 support 1.28x 18 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (115 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.37% 0.25% 54.78% 25.39% -4.73%
1 Day 0.51% 0.19% 53.91% 29.21% -6.63%
1 Week 0.48% 0.17% 50.43% 26.29% -10.33%
2 Weeks 0.17% 0.06% 50.43% 31.91% -11.84%
1 Month 0.84% 0.93% 57.89% 35.51% -33.73%

Next earnings: October 21, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.3%62.1%29
Feb-0.4%51.7%29
Mar-2.3%44.8%29
Apr2.4%69.0%29
May0.0%55.2%29
Jun-1.2%44.8%29
Jul0.7%51.7%29
Aug-0.8%42.9%28
Sep-2.8%28.6%28
Oct-1.6%42.9%28
Nov2.7%72.4%29
Dec0.5%41.4%29

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 49.2% 1365
Tuesday 0.08% 50.2% 1491
Wednesday -0.07% 48.7% 1491
Thursday -0.02% 49.7% 1461
Friday 0.14% 53.1% 1454

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 61.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.1%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings9
Net Value-$8.0M
Net Shares Change-268,525
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings9
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Finkelstein David L CEO and Co-CIO -$4.5M 4 N/A
Campbell Steven Francis President and COO -$2.3M 2 N/A
Wolfe Serena Chief Financial Officer -$754,394.8 2 N/A
Green Anthony C Chief Corporate Officer, CLO -$475,853.85 1 N/A

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-19 – 2026-02-27 4 3 -$3.8M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-04 Finkelstein David L CEO and Co-CIO -$1.1M Transaction at $22.89, now -0.1%
2026-02-19 Campbell Steven Francis President and COO -$652,562 Transaction at $23.12, now -1.1%
2025-11-04 Green Anthony C Chief Corporate Officer, CLO -$475,853.85 Transaction at $21.15, now +8.1%
2026-04-30 Finkelstein David L CEO and Co-CIO -$1.1M Transaction at $22.88, now -0.1%
2026-05-05 Wolfe Serena Chief Financial Officer -$371,751.76 Transaction at $22.48, now +1.7%
2026-02-27 Campbell Steven Francis President and COO -$1.6M Transaction at $22.92, now -0.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NLY on Trend Edge →