IVR — Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by the United States (U.S.) government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issu… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$7.89
Market Cap$734M
Float92.6M
Shares Outstanding92.8M
P/E (Forward)3.54
P/E (TTM)10.14
Price/Sales (TTM)9.12
vs. Analyst Target+7.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin76.66%
Operating Margin (TTM)132.58%
Revenue (TTM)$80.5M
Earnings Growth (YoY)18.00%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$8.50 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 -$1.65B -$1.67B -$1.65B -$1.48B
2021 $50.3M -$90.0M $29.3M -$80.2M
2022 -$438M -$403M -$378M -$331M
2023 $190M -$15.9M $178M $223M
2024 $329M $59.9M $79.1M $310M
2025 $340M $101M $328M $321M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $34.4M -$23.3M
Sep 2025 $113M $53.5M
Dec 2025 $108M $51.5M
Mar 2026 $24.7M -$19.9M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership40.3%
Short Float8.8%
% of All Funds Holding1.92%
Number of Funds Holding158

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$8.12Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$8.11Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$8.02Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.53Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$8.06Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$8.02Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$8.89Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$8.70 resistance 1.66x 13 months ago
$9.30 resistance 1.52x 18 months ago
$9.60 resistance 1.00x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (68 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.39% 0.00% 45.59% 2.79% -8.02%
1 Day 0.10% 0.11% 50.00% 8.70% -9.09%
1 Week -0.16% -0.22% 45.59% 13.96% -16.52%
2 Weeks -1.11% -0.37% 42.65% 16.11% -27.46%
1 Month -0.26% 0.59% 52.24% 14.23% -25.89%

Next earnings: July 19, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan3.8%58.8%17
Feb-1.0%47.1%17
Mar-4.8%47.1%17
Apr-3.1%41.2%17
May-0.3%50.0%16
Jun1.0%50.0%16
Jul-0.0%50.0%16
Aug-2.3%41.2%17
Sep-4.7%41.2%17
Oct-1.8%47.1%17
Nov5.2%64.7%17
Dec-2.1%35.3%17

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.09% 50.6% 796
Tuesday -0.01% 49.1% 875
Wednesday -0.04% 50.6% 871
Thursday -0.12% 49.5% 856
Friday 0.08% 53.4% 852

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 40.3%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value+$14,043.75
Net Shares Change-4,276
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings1
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Fleshman Robert L -$49,444 1 1 sell
Gregson Mark William Chief Financial Officer +$14,043.75 1 1 buy
Waldner Robert +$8,446.3 1 1 buy
Day John +N/A 1 1 sell

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-07 Gregson Mark William Chief Financial Officer +$14,043.75 Transaction at $8.03, now -1.7%
2026-03-03 Waldner Robert +$8,446.3 Transaction at $8.45, now -6.6%
2026-05-19 Day John +N/A N/A
2025-11-12 Fleshman Robert L -$49,444 Transaction at $24.72, now -68.1%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for IVR on Trend Edge →