AGNC — AGNC Investment Corp.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About AGNC Investment Corp.

AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States. It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$10.51
Market Cap$11.78B
Float1.14B
Shares Outstanding1.15B
P/E (Forward)6.49
P/E (TTM)8.02
Price/Sales (TTM)7.34
vs. Analyst Target+8.9% to analyst PT
Profit Margin91.71%
Operating Margin (TTM)129.83%
Revenue (TTM)$1.60B
Earnings Growth (YoY)772.40%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$11.44 (14 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 -$173M -$266M -$439M $816M
2021 $837M $749M $749M $1.12B
2022 $2.55B -$1.19B $2.48B -$552M
2023 $1.01B $155M $1.01B $2.44B
2024 $4.88B $863M $4.88B $3.79B
2025 $1.91B $1.67B $1.91B $4.70B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $289M -$140M
Sep 2025 $779M $806M
Dec 2025 $1.26B $954M
Mar 2026 $1.05B -$148M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.4%
Institutional Ownership41.2%
Short Float9.2%
% of All Funds Holding7.68%
Number of Funds Holding631

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$10.51Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$10.57Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$10.02Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$9.95Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$10.49Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$9.97Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$9.83Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Volume shelf data not available.

Historical Earnings Reactions (72 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.10% 0.20% 54.17% 8.25% -9.37%
1 Day 0.00% 0.32% 54.17% 8.34% -10.28%
1 Week -0.77% -0.56% 38.89% 9.20% -14.92%
2 Weeks -0.27% 0.27% 52.78% 11.08% -19.51%
1 Month 0.06% -0.64% 47.22% 20.62% -23.44%

Next earnings: July 9, 2026 (42 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.2%55.6%18
Feb-1.5%50.0%18
Mar-2.3%55.6%18
Apr1.7%50.0%18
May-0.0%64.7%17
Jun-0.9%44.4%18
Jul1.4%55.6%18
Aug1.2%55.6%18
Sep-2.4%33.3%18
Oct-1.8%50.0%18
Nov3.1%66.7%18
Dec-0.4%44.4%18

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.00% 51.4% 850
Tuesday 0.05% 50.4% 934
Wednesday -0.09% 49.6% 930
Thursday -0.05% 51.7% 911
Friday 0.09% 53.4% 909

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 41.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.4%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings13
Net Value-$14.8M
Net Shares Change-1,356,031
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings9
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Kain Gary D Director, Executive Chair -$8.3M 1 1 sell
Bell Bernice EVP, CFO -$2.4M 5 5 sell
Pollack Kenneth L. EVP and General Counsel -$605,500 1 1 sell
BLANK DONNA -$237,050 1 1 sell
FISK JOHN D -$195,682.7 1 1 sell
Mullings Paul E -$73,032 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-07-29 – 2025-08-12 3 3 -$599,393.7 1 C-suite
2026-01-30 – 2026-01-30 3 3 -$9.2M 3 C-suite
2026-04-28 – 2026-05-07 3 3 -$2.4M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-14 Bell Bernice EVP, CFO -$107,920 Transaction at $10.79, now -2.6%
2026-05-07 BLANK DONNA -$237,050 Transaction at $10.78, now -2.5%
2026-05-05 Mullings Paul E -$73,032 Transaction at $10.74, now -2.1%
2026-02-19 Bell Bernice EVP, CFO -$1.5M Transaction at $11.31, now -7.0%
2026-01-30 Pollack Kenneth L. EVP and General Counsel -$605,500 Transaction at $12.11, now -13.2%
2026-01-30 Kain Gary D Director, Executive Chair -$8.3M Transaction at $11.91, now -11.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for AGNC on Trend Edge →