RDN — Radian Group Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Radian Group Inc

Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mortgage insurance in the United States. It aggregates, manages, and distributes mortgage credit risk for the benefit of mortgage lending institutions and mortgage credit investors through private mortgage insurance on residential first-lien mortgage loans. The company also offers private mortgage insurance, specialty insurance, and reinsurance lines. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$35.31
Market Cap$4.95B
Float131.1M
Shares Outstanding133.0M
P/E (Forward)7.52
P/E (TTM)8.67
Price/Sales (TTM)3.61
vs. Analyst Target+20.1% to analyst PT
Profit Margin41.02%
Operating Margin (TTM)46.59%
Revenue (TTM)$1.37B
Earnings Growth (YoY)-9.00%
Dividend Rate1.0%
Analyst Target Price$42.40 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $1.44B $394M $838M $622M
2021 $1.33B $601M $1.18B $925M
2022 $1.19B $743M $1.42B $1.11B
2023 $1.24B $603M $855M $767M
2024 $1.29B $604M $1.23B $954M
2025 $1.25B $583M $1.15B $872M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $318M $142M
Sep 2025 $311M $141M
Dec 2025 $301M $155M
Mar 2026 $466M $124M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.5%
Institutional Ownership97.0%
Short Float3.3%
% of All Funds Holding4.25%
Number of Funds Holding349

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$35.34Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$34.78Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$34.09Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$29.67Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$34.82Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$34.27Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$31.36Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$29.20 support 1.43x 25 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.53% 0.32% 66.67% 8.95% -5.15%
1 Day -0.15% 0.28% 51.22% 8.59% -16.05%
1 Week -0.18% 0.68% 57.72% 21.96% -48.15%
2 Weeks 0.40% 0.68% 56.91% 101.22% -60.71%
1 Month 1.66% 0.63% 53.28% 88.54% -54.78%

Next earnings: July 26, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.1%50.0%34
Feb1.4%52.9%34
Mar3.7%52.9%34
Apr0.2%50.0%34
May2.7%63.6%33
Jun-3.7%45.5%33
Jul3.5%54.5%33
Aug7.7%57.6%33
Sep2.5%57.6%33
Oct-0.3%63.6%33
Nov-0.7%41.2%34
Dec6.0%58.8%34

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.07% 48.0% 1589
Tuesday 0.25% 49.9% 1736
Wednesday 0.15% 49.1% 1733
Thursday 0.20% 50.9% 1699
Friday -0.05% 46.4% 1691

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 97.0%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.5%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings23
Net Value-$10.1M
Net Shares Change-305,129
% of Float-0.2%
C-Suite Filings18
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Hoffman Edward J Sr EVP, General Counsel -$1.8M 3 N/A
Ray Eric Sr EVP, Chief Digital Officer -$1.5M 2 2 sell
CULANG HOWARD BERNARD -$473,755.01 2 2 sell
Spiegel Noel Joseph -$346,752.59 2 2 sell
Mumford Lisa -$83,612.5 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-05-29 – 2025-06-12 7 6 -$2.9M 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-26 Spiegel Noel Joseph -$174,918.29 Transaction at $36.19, now -2.4%
2026-05-26 CULANG HOWARD BERNARD -$181,000 Transaction at $36.20, now -2.5%
2026-04-30 Hoffman Edward J Sr EVP, General Counsel -$555,000 Transaction at $37.00, now -4.6%
2025-12-03 Ray Eric Sr EVP, Chief Digital Officer -$496,869.2 Transaction at $35.60, now -0.8%
2025-06-06 Ray Eric Sr EVP, Chief Digital Officer -$999,000 Transaction at $33.30, now +6.0%
2026-04-24 Hoffman Edward J Sr EVP, General Counsel -$540,000 Transaction at $36.00, now -1.9%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Radian Group Inc (RDN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for RDN on Trend Edge →