ESNT — Essent Group Ltd

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

About Essent Group Ltd

Essent Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides private mortgage insurance and reinsurance, and title insurance and settlement services to mortgage lenders, borrowers, and investors in the United States. It operates through two segments, Mortgage Insurance and Reinsurance. The company's mortgage insurance products include primary, pool, and master policy. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$59.45
Market Cap$5.70B
Float88.7M
Shares Outstanding92.2M
P/E (Forward)8.37
P/E (TTM)8.81
Price/Sales (TTM)4.46
vs. Analyst Target+16.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin53.64%
Operating Margin (TTM)63.75%
Revenue (TTM)$1.28B
Earnings Growth (YoY)7.70%
Dividend Rate1.4%
Analyst Target Price$69.14 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $955M $413M $654M $502M
2021 $1.03B $682M $997M $834M
2022 $1.02B $831M $1.19B $1.01B
2023 $1.13B $696M $1.10B $858M
2024 $1.27B $729M $1.19B $897M
2025 $1.26B $690M $1.11B $860M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $326M $195M
Sep 2025 $319M $164M
Dec 2025 $312M $155M
Mar 2026 $330M $172M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership5.6%
Institutional Ownership98.8%
Short Float2.2%
% of All Funds Holding4.11%
Number of Funds Holding338

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$60.69Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$61.78Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$59.53Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$53.26Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$61.68Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$59.71Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$55.79Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$55.00 support 1.33x 15 months ago
$54.00 support 1.12x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (51 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.38% 0.27% 62.75% 9.41% -3.96%
1 Day 0.60% 0.88% 58.82% 7.58% -3.26%
1 Week 0.53% 0.35% 52.94% 11.84% -5.49%
2 Weeks 0.60% 0.19% 52.94% 17.62% -6.88%
1 Month 0.77% 0.83% 60.00% 24.29% -44.57%

Next earnings: August 7, 2026 (71 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.7%61.5%13
Feb-1.6%23.1%13
Mar-1.8%53.8%13
Apr-1.1%53.8%13
May3.9%75.0%12
Jun1.6%66.7%12
Jul2.8%66.7%12
Aug4.4%75.0%12
Sep-1.8%50.0%12
Oct2.7%50.0%12
Nov2.4%76.9%13
Dec0.1%46.2%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 51.7% 592
Tuesday 0.06% 52.1% 652
Wednesday 0.08% 51.4% 646
Thursday 0.13% 53.6% 634
Friday 0.01% 50.5% 634

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 98.8%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 5.6%

Founder-led management: Mark A. Casale (Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings18
Net Value-$3.6M
Net Shares Change106,826
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings15
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Bhasin Vijay SVP and Chief Risk Officer -$746,135 2 1 sell
Gibbons Mary Lourdes SVP and Chief Legal Officer -$535,576.5 2 1 sell
SPIEGEL WILLIAM -$404,735.74 1 1 sell
Dutt Aditya -$199,842.5 1 1 sell
KASMAR ROY JAMES -$199,680 1 1 sell
WEINSTOCK DAVID B SVP and CFO -$158,325 1 N/A
Curran Christopher G Pres., Essent Guaranty, Inc. +N/A 1 1 sell
CASALE MARK Chairman, CEO and President +N/A 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-17 – 2025-09-22 3 3 -$1.2M 3 C-suite
2026-02-13 – 2026-02-13 4 4 +N/A 4 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-02-13 Gibbons Mary Lourdes SVP and Chief Legal Officer +N/A N/A
2026-02-13 Curran Christopher G Pres., Essent Guaranty, Inc. +N/A N/A
2026-02-13 CASALE MARK Chairman, CEO and President +N/A N/A
2026-02-13 Bhasin Vijay SVP and Chief Risk Officer +N/A N/A
2025-11-18 KASMAR ROY JAMES -$199,680 Transaction at $61.44, now -3.2%
2025-11-13 Dutt Aditya -$199,842.5 Transaction at $61.49, now -3.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Essent Group Ltd (ESNT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ESNT on Trend Edge →