OSG — Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates OSG Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 31, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction31
Actionability0 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

Octave Specialty Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, primarily engages in the specialty property and casualty insurance business in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance; and Insurance Distribution. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance segment provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus on commercial and personal liability risks.… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$6.02
Market Cap$274M
Float42.4M
Shares Outstanding45.0M
P/E (Forward)60.61
Price/Sales (TTM)0.94
Profit Margin-75.91%
Operating Margin (TTM)2.81%
Revenue (TTM)$293M
Dividend RateNone

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $156M -$437M -$69.0M -$160M
2021 $247M -$17.0M $319M $246M
2022 $53.6M $521M $24.4M -$31.9M
2023 $125M $3.6M $48.0M -$19.0M
2024 $236M -$556M $98.6M -$30.5M
2025 $251M -$241M $204M -$40.4M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $55.0M -$72.7M
Sep 2025 $66.6M -$113M
Dec 2025 $66.9M -$21.7M
Mar 2026 $104M $7.6M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership7.8%
Institutional Ownership75.1%
Short Float2.5%
% of All Funds Holding1.62%
Number of Funds Holding133

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$5.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$6.41Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$7.61Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$11.58Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$6.28Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$7.71Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$10.86Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$4.40 support 1.26x 1 months ago
$9.80 resistance 2.65x 15 months ago
$11.40 resistance 1.04x 16 months ago
$13.10 resistance 1.21x 22 months ago
$17.80 resistance 1.49x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (53 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.38% 0.49% 66.04% 26.78% -7.54%
1 Day 0.47% -1.28% 43.40% 43.36% -19.76%
1 Week 1.10% -1.98% 41.51% 35.16% -21.44%
2 Weeks 0.99% -2.30% 43.40% 43.97% -28.04%
1 Month -2.19% -5.34% 32.69% 46.48% -42.77%

Next earnings: August 6, 2026 (25 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-4.7%15.4%13
Feb2.9%53.8%13
Mar-9.1%15.4%13
Apr0.6%53.8%13
May0.6%46.2%13
Jun-1.4%57.1%14
Jul2.3%61.5%13
Aug-0.1%38.5%13
Sep-5.2%30.8%13
Oct3.9%76.9%13
Nov8.4%76.9%13
Dec0.3%53.8%13

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.16% 46.1% 622
Tuesday -0.02% 47.1% 683
Wednesday 0.05% 50.7% 678
Thursday 0.15% 48.9% 666
Friday 0.02% 50.2% 664

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 7.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings4
Net Value-$3.8M
Net Shares Change455,506
% of Float1.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
LeBlanc Claude Chief Executive Officer -$3.8M 3 3 buy
Smith R Sharon Exec VP & Group COO +$205 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-10-01 LeBlanc Claude Chief Executive Officer -$4.1M Transaction at $8.96, now -32.8%
2025-08-11 LeBlanc Claude Chief Executive Officer +$175,750 Transaction at $7.03, now -14.4%
2026-01-05 LeBlanc Claude Chief Executive Officer +$91,080 Transaction at $7.59, now -20.7%
2025-11-14 Smith R Sharon Exec VP & Group COO +$205 Transaction at $10.25, now -41.3%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for OSG on Trend Edge →