PMT — PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PMT Bearish with a Setup Score of 36, net conviction 43, actionability 30. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score36
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction43
Actionability30 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, through its subsidiary, primarily invests in residential mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company operates through: Credit Sensitive Strategies, Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies, and Correspondent Production segments. The Credit Sensitive Strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements and subordinate and credit-linked mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$9.29
Market Cap$827M
Float71.6M
Shares Outstanding87.2M
P/E (Forward)7.04
P/E (TTM)6.61
Price/Sales (TTM)4.08
vs. Analyst Target+23.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin24.28%
Operating Margin (TTM)10.91%
Revenue (TTM)$684M
Earnings Growth (YoY)17.00%
Dividend Rate1.6%
Analyst Target Price$11.46 (9 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $109M $52.4M -$120M $79.7M
2021 $82.8M $56.9M -$107M $44.7M
2022 -$146M -$73.3M -$321M $33.1M
2023 $726M $200M $604M $1.28B
2024 $505M $161M $380M $1.03B
2025 $1.74B $128M $1.60B $93.8M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $291M $58.3M
Dec 2025 $426M $52.4M
Mar 2026 $451M $24.6M
Jun 2026 $397M $31.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership1.2%
Institutional Ownership75.1%
Short Float9.1%
% of All Funds Holding2.39%
Number of Funds Holding210

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$9.87Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$11.39Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$12.07Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$12.96Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$11.38Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$12.15Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$12.87Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$11.10 resistance 1.48x 0 months ago
$12.50 resistance 1.46x 6 months ago
$14.60 resistance 1.62x 15 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (68 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.11% -0.03% 42.65% 12.97% -5.11%
1 Day -0.59% -0.35% 39.71% 14.55% -12.44%
1 Week -0.98% -0.57% 44.12% 27.99% -13.36%
2 Weeks -0.68% -0.83% 42.65% 26.40% -13.44%
1 Month 0.42% -0.77% 43.28% 56.24% -36.09%

Next earnings: October 17, 2026 (51 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan2.7%70.6%17
Feb-1.1%52.9%17
Mar-1.4%58.8%17
Apr-0.9%41.2%17
May-3.3%23.5%17
Jun5.4%70.6%17
Jul-0.4%52.9%17
Aug-0.2%52.9%17
Sep-0.9%64.7%17
Oct-0.1%47.1%17
Nov2.7%64.7%17
Dec-2.1%47.1%17

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 51.9% 805
Tuesday -0.01% 49.8% 883
Wednesday 0.05% 50.9% 880
Thursday -0.04% 51.4% 864
Friday 0.07% 51.7% 860

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 75.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 1.2%

Founder-led management: David Spector (Chairman of the Board & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings5
Net Value+$101,099.72
Net Shares Change13,300
% of Float0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
SPECTOR DAVID Chairman and CEO +$124,000 1 1 buy
Lynch Catherine A. +$71,762.666 3 3 buy
Hendry Gregory L Chief Accounting Officer -$22,900.28 1 N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2025-11-18 SPECTOR DAVID Chairman and CEO +$124,000 Transaction at $12.40, now -25.1%
2025-09-24 Lynch Catherine A. +$33,932.46 Transaction at $12.02, now -22.7%
2026-08-04 Hendry Gregory L Chief Accounting Officer -$22,900.28 Transaction at $9.37, now -0.9%
2026-01-27 Lynch Catherine A. +$19,207.202 Transaction at $13.24, now -29.8%
2025-10-28 Lynch Catherine A. +$18,623.005 Transaction at $12.67, now -26.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PMT on Trend Edge →