PARR — Par Pacific Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PARR Bullish with a Setup Score of 34, net conviction 53, actionability 22. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score34
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction53
Actionability22 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Par Pacific Holdings Inc

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment operates convenience stores and fuel retail outlets that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as s… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$73.82
Market Cap$3.86B
Float48.6M
Shares Outstanding50.1M
P/E (Forward)15.65
P/E (TTM)4.53
Price/Sales (TTM)0.42
vs. Analyst Target+12.4% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.94%
Operating Margin (TTM)21.12%
Revenue (TTM)$8.62B
Earnings Growth (YoY)699.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$83.00 (8 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.12B -$409M $87.1M -$270M
2021 $4.71B -$81.3M $277M $80.5M
2022 $7.32B $364M $846M $533M
2023 $8.23B $729M $1.27B $806M
2024 $7.97B -$33.3M $742M $175M
2025 $7.46B $369M $1.35B $705M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $2.01B $263M
Dec 2025 $1.81B $77.7M
Mar 2026 $1.82B $54.5M
Jun 2026 $2.97B $462M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.8%
Institutional Ownership102.6%
Short Float9.4%
% of All Funds Holding4.16%
Number of Funds Holding366

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$71.80Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$55.49Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$41.11Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$32.55Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$56.16Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$40.54Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$34.32Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$45.00 support 1.35x 4 months ago
$26.90 support 1.05x 12 months ago
$22.20 support 1.19x 13 months ago
$14.40 support 1.20x 14 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (56 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.45% 0.09% 51.79% 8.42% -16.81%
1 Day -0.32% 0.00% 48.21% 11.82% -16.81%
1 Week 1.49% 0.98% 53.57% 30.60% -13.06%
2 Weeks 2.10% -0.08% 48.21% 50.38% -41.74%
1 Month 3.00% 1.19% 56.36% 78.09% -59.83%

Next earnings: October 24, 2026 (58 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.1%57.1%14
Feb-0.7%42.9%14
Mar1.7%57.1%14
Apr3.4%64.3%14
May0.1%42.9%14
Jun3.5%57.1%14
Jul6.5%57.1%14
Aug1.9%53.8%13
Sep-1.3%61.5%13
Oct4.0%42.9%14
Nov7.6%57.1%14
Dec0.3%42.9%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 46.7% 660
Tuesday 0.20% 46.9% 721
Wednesday 0.03% 46.9% 719
Thursday 0.37% 46.3% 706
Friday 0.48% 50.7% 704

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 102.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings21
Net Value-$12.0M
Net Shares Change-230,977
% of Float-0.5%
C-Suite Filings15
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
PATE WILLIAM -$7.3M 1 1 sell
Clossey Timothy -$1.1M 1 1 sell
Creamer Richard EVP - Refining and Logistics -$956,786.13 1 1 sell
Flores Shawn David Senior Vice President - Chief Financial Officer -$737,427.18 2 2 sell
Hollis Jeffrey Ryan Senior VP - General Counsel and Secretary -$638,867 1 1 sell
Pitkin Terrill SVP, Planning & Commercial -$605,625.28 1 1 sell
Guerra Ivan Daniel Chief Accounting Officer -$367,575.21 2 2 sell
Mattiussi Danielle Senior Vice President - Chief Retail Officer -$220,576.62 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-09-04 – 2025-09-16 4 4 -$718,611.4 3 C-suite
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-17 10 8 -$25.4M 7 C-suite
2026-08-10 – 2026-08-19 5 5 -$9.7M 3 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-18 Guerra Ivan Daniel Chief Accounting Officer -$175,695.21 Transaction at $82.37, now -10.4%
2026-08-11 Mattiussi Danielle Senior Vice President - Chief Retail Officer -$220,576.62 Transaction at $67.29, now +9.7%
2026-08-10 Creamer Richard EVP - Refining and Logistics -$956,786.13 Transaction at $67.67, now +9.1%
2026-08-19 PATE WILLIAM -$7.3M Transaction at $81.11, now -9.0%
2026-08-18 Clossey Timothy -$1.1M Transaction at $82.11, now -10.1%
2026-03-17 Flores Shawn David Senior Vice President - Chief Financial Officer -$387,304.68 Transaction at $54.04, now +36.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PARR on Trend Edge →