PARR — Par Pacific Holdings Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates PARR Bullish with a Setup Score of 30, net conviction 39, actionability 23. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score30
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction39
Actionability23 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Par Pacific Holdings Inc

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail, and Logistics. The Refining segment owns and operates refineries that convert crude oil into gasoline, distillate, asphalt, and other products. The Retail segment operates convenience stores and fuel retail outlets that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as s… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$81.89
Market Cap$4.39B
Float48.7M
Shares Outstanding50.1M
P/E (Forward)10.54
P/E (TTM)5.12
Price/Sales (TTM)0.51
vs. Analyst Target+4.8% to analyst PT
Profit Margin9.94%
Operating Margin (TTM)21.12%
Revenue (TTM)$8.62B
Earnings Growth (YoY)699.10%
Dividend RateNone
Analyst Target Price$85.86 (7 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $3.12B -$409M $87.1M -$270M
2021 $4.71B -$81.3M $277M $80.5M
2022 $7.32B $364M $846M $533M
2023 $8.23B $729M $1.27B $806M
2024 $7.97B -$33.3M $742M $175M
2025 $7.46B $369M $1.35B $705M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $2.01B $263M
Dec 2025 $1.81B $77.7M
Mar 2026 $1.82B $54.5M
Jun 2026 $2.97B $462M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.6%
Institutional Ownership103.9%
Short Float9.6%
% of All Funds Holding4.16%
Number of Funds Holding366

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$79.82Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$61.99Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$46.27Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$34.36Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$65.04Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$47.47Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$37.36Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$45.00 support 1.35x 6 months ago
$26.90 support 1.05x 14 months ago
$22.20 support 1.19x 15 months ago
$14.40 support 1.20x 16 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (56 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.45% 0.09% 51.79% 8.42% -16.81%
1 Day -0.32% 0.00% 48.21% 11.82% -16.81%
1 Week 1.49% 0.98% 53.57% 30.60% -13.06%
2 Weeks 2.10% -0.08% 48.21% 50.38% -41.74%
1 Month 3.00% 1.19% 56.36% 78.09% -59.83%

Next earnings: November 3, 2026 (23 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.1%57.1%14
Feb-0.7%42.9%14
Mar1.7%57.1%14
Apr3.4%64.3%14
May0.1%42.9%14
Jun3.5%57.1%14
Jul6.5%57.1%14
Aug1.3%50.0%14
Sep-1.1%64.3%14
Oct4.0%42.9%14
Nov7.6%57.1%14
Dec0.3%42.9%14

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.02% 46.8% 665
Tuesday 0.20% 47.0% 727
Wednesday 0.04% 47.2% 725
Thursday 0.38% 46.6% 712
Friday 0.47% 50.7% 710

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 103.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.6%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings20
Net Value-$16.1M
Net Shares Change-224,972
% of Float-0.5%
C-Suite Filings14
Clusters Detected3

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
PATE WILLIAM -$7.3M 1 1 sell
Monteleone William President and CEO -$4.5M 1 1 sell
Clossey Timothy -$2.0M 2 2 sell
Creamer Richard EVP - Refining and Logistics -$956,786.13 1 1 sell
Pitkin Terrill SVP, Planning & Commercial -$927,992.78 2 2 sell
Flores Shawn David Senior Vice President - Chief Financial Officer -$387,304.68 1 1 sell
Mattiussi Danielle Senior Vice President - Chief Retail Officer -$220,576.62 1 1 sell
Guerra Ivan Daniel Chief Accounting Officer -$175,695.21 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-03-03 – 2026-03-17 10 8 -$25.4M 7 C-suite
2026-08-10 – 2026-08-19 5 5 -$9.7M 3 C-suite
2026-09-04 – 2026-09-15 3 3 -$5.7M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-15 Pitkin Terrill SVP, Planning & Commercial -$322,367.5 Transaction at $84.50, now -3.1%
2026-09-11 Clossey Timothy -$921,480 Transaction at $84.00, now -2.5%
2026-08-18 Guerra Ivan Daniel Chief Accounting Officer -$175,695.21 Transaction at $82.37, now -0.6%
2026-08-11 Mattiussi Danielle Senior Vice President - Chief Retail Officer -$220,576.62 Transaction at $67.29, now +21.7%
2026-08-10 Creamer Richard EVP - Refining and Logistics -$956,786.13 Transaction at $67.67, now +21.0%
2026-08-19 PATE WILLIAM -$7.3M Transaction at $81.11, now +1.0%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for PARR on Trend Edge →