OBT — Orange County Bancorp Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates OBT Bullish with a Setup Score of 32, net conviction 32, actionability 33. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score32
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction32
Actionability33 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Orange County Bancorp Inc

Orange County Bancorp, Inc., a bank holding company, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services. The company operates in Business Banking, Private Banking, and Trust & Wealth Management segments. It accepts various deposits, including interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing demand accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$37.82
Market Cap$511M
Float11.4M
Shares Outstanding13.4M
P/E (TTM)10.57
Price/Sales (TTM)4.17
vs. Analyst Target+13.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin38.63%
Operating Margin (TTM)40.90%
Revenue (TTM)$123M
Earnings Growth (YoY)17.00%
Dividend Rate0.7%
Analyst Target Price$43.00 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $64.4M $11.7M $54.3M $16.1M
2021 $76.0M $21.3M $69.6M $28.3M
2022 $96.0M $24.4M $80.4M $32.0M
2023 $131M $29.5M $93.8M $39.1M
2024 $143M $27.9M $99.9M $36.8M
2025 $158M $41.6M $119M $53.1M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $41.3M $10.0M
Dec 2025 $40.0M $12.4M
Mar 2026 $34.4M $11.3M
Jun 2026 $35.0M $13.7M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.2%
Institutional Ownership54.9%
Short Float1.2%
% of All Funds Holding1.27%
Number of Funds Holding112

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$37.87Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$33.72Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$29.42Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$26.30Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$33.27Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$29.20Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$26.97Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$34.00 support 1.94x 1 months ago
$31.00 support 1.54x 5 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (34 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.43% 0.03% 52.94% 7.08% -7.02%
1 Day -0.27% 0.00% 41.18% 8.22% -9.74%
1 Week 0.45% 0.11% 58.82% 10.77% -14.52%
2 Weeks 1.22% 0.83% 58.82% 17.66% -9.84%
1 Month 1.25% 1.71% 57.58% 15.02% -14.62%

Next earnings: October 28, 2026 (62 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan0.0%34.8%23
Feb4.4%39.1%23
Mar-2.8%56.5%23
Apr-1.0%39.1%23
May1.4%56.5%23
Jun1.4%60.9%23
Jul0.5%39.1%23
Aug0.8%50.0%22
Sep1.0%54.5%22
Oct-0.4%40.9%22
Nov2.6%56.5%23
Dec1.6%56.5%23

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.10% 19.5% 1078
Tuesday 0.05% 21.3% 1181
Wednesday 0.17% 19.6% 1181
Thursday -0.01% 19.3% 1157
Friday 0.11% 18.7% 1152

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 54.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings13
Net Value-$351,846.72
Net Shares Change15,658
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings5
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Gilfeather Michael J President and CEO -$146,904.37 2 3 buy
Sousa Gregory EVP and Deputy CLO -$118,071.25 1 1 sell
Rooney Stephen SVP, Chief Credit Officer -$58,065 1 1 sell
Dineen David P SVP, Dir. Wealth Services -$28,806.1 1 1 sell
Schiller Jon +$4,182.516 2 1 buy, 1 sell
HOLCOMBE GREGORY F +N/A 1 1 sell
Rowley Richard B +N/A 1 1 sell
Rouis Jonathan F +N/A 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-02-23 – 2026-02-23 6 6 +N/A

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-04 Rooney Stephen SVP, Chief Credit Officer -$58,065 Transaction at $38.71, now -2.3%
2026-08-03 Sousa Gregory EVP and Deputy CLO -$118,071.25 Transaction at $38.75, now -2.4%
2025-11-03 Gilfeather Michael J President and CEO +$39,633 Transaction at $24.02, now +57.5%
2026-03-23 Gilfeather Michael J President and CEO -$186,537.37 Transaction at $31.20, now +21.2%
2026-01-06 Schiller Jon +$4,182.516 Transaction at $26.81, now +41.1%
2026-03-17 HOLCOMBE GREGORY F +N/A N/A

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Orange County Bancorp Inc (OBT) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for OBT on Trend Edge →