ARR — ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates ARR Bearish with a Setup Score of 0, net conviction 53, actionability 0. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score0
Directional BiasBearish
Net Conviction53
Actionability0 (extended)

Key signals behind this score

About ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. Its securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans; and unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasur… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$13.59
Market Cap$1.95B
Float141.3M
Shares Outstanding141.6M
P/E (Forward)5.06
P/E (TTM)3.14
Price/Sales (TTM)3.98
vs. Analyst Target+35.2% to analyst PT
Profit Margin87.82%
Operating Margin (TTM)87.00%
Revenue (TTM)$491M
Earnings Growth (YoY)23.10%
Dividend Rate2.9%
Analyst Target Price$18.38 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 -$22.2M -$225M -$44.4M -$162M
2021 $19.2M $3.9M $19.2M $63.5M
2022 -$878M -$230M -$904M -$92.6M
2023 $450M -$67.9M $418M $458M
2024 $240M -$14.4M $207M $510M
2025 $1.31B $323M $1.27B $967M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $393M $159M
Dec 2025 $349M $212M
Mar 2026 $56.0M -$54.9M
Jun 2026 $119M $115M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.2%
Institutional Ownership56.9%
Short Float10.0%
% of All Funds Holding2.83%
Number of Funds Holding249

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$15.42Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$16.82Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$16.50Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$19.56Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$16.43Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$16.44Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$18.07Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$16.10 resistance 1.25x 0 months ago
$17.30 resistance 1.29x 2 months ago
$17.60 resistance 1.06x 6 months ago
$19.10 resistance 1.76x 18 months ago
$20.40 resistance 1.42x 23 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (66 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.05% 0.09% 56.06% 4.94% -3.85%
1 Day 0.01% 0.35% 53.03% 5.69% -8.71%
1 Week -0.41% 0.00% 46.97% 10.97% -10.41%
2 Weeks -0.60% -0.26% 45.45% 13.99% -18.33%
1 Month -1.28% -0.37% 45.45% 22.64% -64.10%

Next earnings: October 28, 2026 (18 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-0.6%52.6%19
Feb-2.0%36.8%19
Mar-1.9%47.4%19
Apr-1.1%42.1%19
May-2.2%36.8%19
Jun-0.2%52.6%19
Jul0.2%52.6%19
Aug-0.6%47.4%19
Sep-4.7%31.6%19
Oct-1.8%44.4%18
Nov1.4%61.1%18
Dec0.4%61.1%18

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.08% 46.7% 889
Tuesday 0.02% 48.9% 974
Wednesday -0.12% 47.5% 973
Thursday -0.07% 46.4% 954
Friday -0.02% 47.3% 948

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 56.9%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings3
Net Value-$554,332.796
Net Shares Change-41,691
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings2
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
STATON DANIEL C Chairman of the Board -$564,417.546 1 1 sell
Hain Robert C -$123,435.412 1 1 sell
Losyev Sergey Co-Chief Investment Officer +$10,084.75 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-09-30 Losyev Sergey Co-Chief Investment Officer +$10,084.75 Transaction at $13.91, now -2.3%
2026-09-11 STATON DANIEL C Chairman of the Board -$564,417.546 Transaction at $15.86, now -14.3%
2026-01-08 Hain Robert C -$123,435.412 Transaction at $18.06, now -24.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for ARR on Trend Edge →