NBTB — NBT Bancorp Inc

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates NBTB Bullish with a Setup Score of 55, net conviction 26, actionability 117. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score55
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction26
Actionability117 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About NBT Bancorp Inc

NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. The company offers demand deposit, savings, interest-bearing checking, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts; and indirect and direct consumer loans, home equity loans and lines of credit… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$52.00
Market Cap$2.70B
Float51.0M
Shares Outstanding52.0M
P/E (Forward)13.40
P/E (TTM)12.59
Price/Sales (TTM)3.72
vs. Analyst Target+9.3% to analyst PT
Profit Margin29.59%
Operating Margin (TTM)41.45%
Revenue (TTM)$724M
Earnings Growth (YoY)131.80%
Dividend Rate1.6%
Analyst Target Price$56.83 (6 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $491M $104M $408M $154M
2021 $495M $155M $484M $220M
2022 $537M $152M $498M $215M
2023 $662M $119M $493M $176M
2024 $786M $141M $555M $207M
2025 $867M $169M $626M $241M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $239M $54.5M
Dec 2025 $238M $55.5M
Mar 2026 $233M $51.1M
Jun 2026 $181M $53.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership2.8%
Institutional Ownership69.5%
Short Float3.8%
% of All Funds Holding3.22%
Number of Funds Holding283

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$51.77Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$45.97Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$44.11Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$41.44Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$45.67Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$44.43Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$41.75Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$50.00 support 1.63x 0 months ago
$46.00 support 1.60x 1 months ago
$38.60 support 1.41x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (123 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.10% 0.00% 49.59% 4.64% -4.53%
1 Day 0.29% 0.53% 56.10% 8.11% -11.24%
1 Week 0.58% 0.05% 50.41% 18.30% -11.10%
2 Weeks 0.97% 0.72% 54.47% 20.80% -14.80%
1 Month 0.95% 1.06% 56.56% 18.61% -20.69%

Next earnings: October 26, 2026 (61 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-2.6%35.3%34
Feb-1.1%38.2%34
Mar1.8%64.7%34
Apr-0.7%42.9%35
May0.5%51.4%35
Jun2.9%60.0%35
Jul1.5%51.4%35
Aug-0.3%50.0%34
Sep0.0%44.1%34
Oct3.6%61.8%34
Nov3.2%67.6%34
Dec0.5%55.9%34

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday -0.02% 47.6% 1631
Tuesday 0.09% 46.9% 1780
Wednesday 0.02% 45.9% 1779
Thursday 0.04% 45.7% 1745
Friday 0.11% 46.2% 1733

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 69.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 2.8%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings12
Net Value-$1.5M
Net Shares Change-18,921
% of Float-0.0%
C-Suite Filings7
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
DELANEY TIMOTHY E +$1.5M 3 3 buy
WATT JOHN H JR -$995,750.7 1 1 sell
Halliday Sarah A EVP/Chief Comm Innovation Off -$486,401.4 1 1 sell
Mahoney Ruth H EVP/President of Wealth Mgmt -$477,350 2 2 sell
Sparks Martin Randolph EVP,General Counsel,Secretary -$156,770.28 2 2 sell
Hoeller Heidi M -$100,873.5 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2026-06-08 – 2026-06-12 4 4 -$1.4M 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-30 Mahoney Ruth H EVP/President of Wealth Mgmt -$244,350 Transaction at $54.30, now -4.2%
2026-07-30 Halliday Sarah A EVP/Chief Comm Innovation Off -$486,401.4 Transaction at $54.04, now -3.8%
2026-06-08 Mahoney Ruth H EVP/President of Wealth Mgmt -$233,000 Transaction at $46.60, now +11.6%
2026-06-12 Sparks Martin Randolph EVP,General Counsel,Secretary -$57,650.04 Transaction at $48.04, now +8.2%
2026-06-12 Hoeller Heidi M -$100,873.5 Transaction at $48.03, now +8.3%
2026-06-10 WATT JOHN H JR -$995,750.7 Transaction at $47.42, now +9.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for NBT Bancorp Inc (NBTB) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for NBTB on Trend Edge →