Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.
About National Bank Holdings Corporation
National Bank Holdings Corporation operates as the bank holding company for NBH Bank that provides various banking products and financial services to commercial, business, and consumer clients in the United States. It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, health savings, and other deposit accounts, including fixed-rate and fixed maturity time deposits. Read full Trend Edge analysis →
Sector: Financial Services
Industry: Banks-Regional
Exchange: NYSE
IPO Date: September 20, 2012
Headquarters: 7800 East Orchard Road, Greenwood Village, CO, United States, 80111
Hidden Gem: Yes — undiscovered relative to its market cap tier
Founder-Led: Yes — Thomas M. Metzger (Founder, Chairman & CEO)
Key Metrics
Current Price
$41.97
Market Cap
$1.88B
Float
42.8M
Shares Outstanding
44.8M
P/E (Forward)
13.79
P/E (TTM)
15.64
Price/Sales (TTM)
4.37
vs. Analyst Target
+15.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin
24.73%
Operating Margin (TTM)
24.24%
Revenue (TTM)
$429M
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.10%
Dividend Rate
1.3%
Analyst Target Price
$48.25 (4 analysts)
Financial History
Annual Revenue & Earnings History
Year
Revenue
Net Income
Gross Profit
EBITDA
2020
$354M
$88.6M
$311M
$124M
2021
$306M
$93.6M
$302M
$129M
2022
$347M
$71.3M
$292M
$103M
2023
$554M
$142M
$412M
$199M
2024
$594M
$119M
$395M
$169M
2025
$584M
$110M
$404M
$165M
Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income
Quarter
Revenue
Net Income
Jun 2025
$147M
$34.0M
Sep 2025
$152M
$35.3M
Dec 2025
$141M
$16.0M
Mar 2026
$177M
$20.8M
Ownership & Float
Insider Ownership
5.7%
Institutional Ownership
93.0%
Short Float
4.7%
% of All Funds Holding
2.41%
Number of Funds Holding
198
Current Moving Averages
Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.
Timeframe
SMA
Value
Trend Context
Weekly
10-Week SMA
$41.49
Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly
40-Week SMA
$39.54
Medium-term trend
Weekly
80-Week SMA
$39.73
Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly
200-Week SMA
$38.27
Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly
10-Month SMA
$39.27
Near-term monthly trend
Monthly
20-Month SMA
$39.94
Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly
40-Month SMA
$37.54
Secular monthly trend
Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance
Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume
creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative
volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.
Price Level
Type
Volume Ratio
Age
$38.00
support
1.40x
3 months ago
$47.00
resistance
1.06x
16 months ago
$33.20
support
1.25x
23 months ago
Historical Earnings Reactions (55 events)
Timeframe
Avg Return
Median
Win Rate
Best
Worst
Gap
-0.01%
-0.03%
49.09%
8.62%
-7.84%
1 Day
0.53%
0.32%
52.73%
7.59%
-6.23%
1 Week
0.66%
0.62%
52.73%
23.09%
-10.07%
2 Weeks
0.88%
1.01%
58.18%
22.38%
-17.97%
1 Month
2.26%
1.61%
61.11%
19.85%
-9.42%
Next earnings: July 28, 2026 (60 days away)
Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns
Monthly Seasonality
Month
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Jan
-1.5%
57.1%
14
Feb
0.7%
42.9%
14
Mar
-3.4%
50.0%
14
Apr
0.2%
42.9%
14
May
1.8%
53.8%
13
Jun
2.0%
61.5%
13
Jul
3.0%
61.5%
13
Aug
0.4%
53.8%
13
Sep
-0.8%
38.5%
13
Oct
2.9%
71.4%
14
Nov
4.0%
78.6%
14
Dec
-0.4%
57.1%
14
Day-of-Week Tendencies
Day
Avg Return
Win Rate
Samples
Monday
0.01%
49.0%
645
Tuesday
0.02%
49.9%
707
Wednesday
0.04%
50.4%
704
Thursday
0.00%
50.1%
690
Friday
0.12%
50.9%
691
Top Institutional Holders
Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.
Total institutional ownership: 93.0%
Insider Transactions — Smart Summary
Total insider ownership: 5.7%
Founder-led management: Thomas M. Metzger (Founder, Chairman & CEO)
Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for National Bank Holdings Corporation
(NBHC) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model.
The analysis covers five layers:
technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum,
volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals),
qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics),
insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions),
share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and
fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).
AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit,
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AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.