MTB — M&T Bank Corporation

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MTB Bullish with a Setup Score of 45, net conviction 35, actionability 57. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score45
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction35
Actionability57 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About M&T Bank Corporation

M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and Wilmington Trust, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Bank, Retail Bank, and Institutional Services and Wealth Management. Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$240.41
Market Cap$34.41B
Float143.7M
Shares Outstanding144.4M
P/E (Forward)12.80
P/E (TTM)12.96
Price/Sales (TTM)3.64
vs. Analyst Target+7.0% to analyst PT
Profit Margin32.09%
Operating Margin (TTM)45.11%
Revenue (TTM)$9.45B
Earnings Growth (YoY)25.50%
Dividend Rate6.0%
Analyst Target Price$257.25 (21 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $6.28B $1.35B $5.15B $2.09B
2021 $6.08B $1.86B $6.04B $2.78B
2022 $8.44B $1.99B $7.50B $3.05B
2023 $12.51B $2.74B $8.75B $4.12B
2024 $13.40B $2.59B $8.62B $3.82B
2025 $12.31B $2.85B $9.19B $3.96B

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $2.51B $792M
Dec 2025 $3.33B $759M
Mar 2026 $3.23B $664M
Jun 2026 $3.36B $818M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership0.3%
Institutional Ownership92.5%
Short Float3.7%
% of All Funds Holding13.02%
Number of Funds Holding1,145

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$244.89Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$221.06Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$203.33Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$171.68Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$219.64Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$204.32Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$177.36Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$212.00 support 1.08x 1 months ago
$201.00 support 1.06x 6 months ago
$152.00 support 1.04x 24 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (122 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap -0.07% 0.00% 45.90% 2.72% -5.22%
1 Day 0.03% 0.10% 52.46% 8.15% -6.69%
1 Week 1.16% 0.96% 63.11% 23.58% -8.33%
2 Weeks 1.41% 0.92% 63.93% 21.03% -9.46%
1 Month 2.07% 2.21% 67.77% 26.23% -30.55%

Next earnings: October 15, 2026 (49 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan1.2%63.0%46
Feb1.9%54.3%46
Mar1.4%65.2%46
Apr3.0%61.7%47
May0.2%44.7%47
Jun1.5%61.7%47
Jul2.6%63.8%47
Aug-1.6%47.8%46
Sep1.5%54.3%46
Oct0.6%54.3%46
Nov2.2%56.5%46
Dec2.0%67.4%46

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.00% 43.8% 2213
Tuesday 0.06% 46.3% 2401
Wednesday 0.06% 44.8% 2399
Thursday 0.10% 45.9% 2353
Friday 0.12% 48.6% 2337

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 92.5%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 0.3%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings22
Net Value-$6.1M
Net Shares Change-82,061
% of Float-0.1%
C-Suite Filings13
Clusters Detected2

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
BARNES JOHN P -$8.0M 2 2 sell
Kay Christopher E. Sr. Executive Vice President -$1.7M 2 2 sell
Wisler Michael A. Sr. Executive Vice President -$1.1M 1 1 sell
Taylor John R. EVP and Controller -$513,690 2 2 sell
Ledgett Richard H. Jr. -$212,177.655 1 1 sell
Seseri Rudina -$150,171.035 1 1 sell
WALTERS KIRK W -$2,376.807 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-08-26 – 2025-09-03 3 3 -$3.3M 2 C-suite
2026-01-23 – 2026-02-05 4 4 -$4.6M 1 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-08-19 Taylor John R. EVP and Controller -$308,923.28 Transaction at $253.84, now -5.3%
2026-08-25 Seseri Rudina -$150,171.035 Transaction at $241.04, now -0.3%
2026-08-07 WALTERS KIRK W -$2,376.807 Transaction at $253.77, now -5.3%
2026-08-04 Ledgett Richard H. Jr. -$212,177.655 Transaction at $248.16, now -3.1%
2026-06-17 Taylor John R. EVP and Controller -$204,766.72 Transaction at $212.00, now +13.4%
2026-03-02 Wisler Michael A. Sr. Executive Vice President -$1.1M Transaction at $185.67, now +29.5%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MTB on Trend Edge →