MSBI — Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

✨ Hidden Gem

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MSBI Bullish with a Setup Score of 8, net conviction 30, actionability 2. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score8
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction30
Actionability2 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. operates as a financial holding company for Midland States Bank that provides various banking products and services to individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. It operates in Banking and Wealth Management segments. The company offers commercial loans; commercial real estate loans that include various property types, such as owner-occupied offices, warehouses and production facilities, office buildi… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$30.53
Market Cap$625M
Float19.5M
Shares Outstanding20.7M
P/E (Forward)8.22
P/E (TTM)24.70
Price/Sales (TTM)2.28
vs. Analyst Target+0.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin12.81%
Operating Margin (TTM)34.02%
Revenue (TTM)$274M
Earnings Growth (YoY)-71.20%
Dividend Rate1.3%
Analyst Target Price$30.75 (4 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $316M $22.5M $226M $51.5M
2021 $313M $81.3M $280M $115M
2022 $437M $100M $304M $146M
2023 $66.6M $75.5M $66.6M $108M
2024 $546M $38.0M $236M $60.1M
2025 $468M -$124M $268M -$93.5M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $118M $12.0M
Sep 2025 $116M $7.6M
Dec 2025 $107M -$2.9M
Mar 2026 $108M $18.5M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership8.2%
Institutional Ownership70.1%
Short Float3.3%
% of All Funds Holding1.56%
Number of Funds Holding128

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$29.05Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$22.82Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$20.54Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$22.45Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$23.48Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$20.90Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$21.97Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$27.70 support 1.16x 0 months ago
$22.50 support 1.04x 2 months ago
$16.20 support 1.74x 6 months ago
$14.60 support 1.15x 7 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (40 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.05% 0.19% 55.00% 8.84% -16.80%
1 Day -1.52% -1.03% 32.50% 8.23% -20.00%
1 Week -0.02% 0.14% 50.00% 12.83% -22.96%
2 Weeks 0.50% 0.45% 50.00% 21.03% -21.12%
1 Month 2.14% 0.57% 51.28% 45.21% -23.12%

Next earnings: July 23, 2026 (10 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-1.1%40.0%10
Feb2.5%60.0%10
Mar-4.8%40.0%10
Apr-1.1%40.0%10
May-0.0%60.0%10
Jun0.7%45.5%11
Jul1.7%50.0%10
Aug0.2%50.0%10
Sep-3.4%30.0%10
Oct3.1%80.0%10
Nov5.6%70.0%10
Dec5.0%60.0%10

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.14% 51.5% 474
Tuesday 0.05% 49.9% 523
Wednesday 0.07% 48.6% 521
Thursday 0.01% 52.5% 512
Friday -0.08% 48.5% 511

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 70.1%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 8.2%

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings7
Net Value+$123,928.63
Net Shares Change22,637
% of Float0.1%
C-Suite Filings4
Clusters Detected1

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Franklin Travis +$248,988.14 1 1 buy
Jameson Jeremy Andrew EVP - Chief Credit Officer +$99,028.62 1 1 buy
Casey Daniel Edward CROF +$89,443 1 1 buy
Bingham Richard Dean +$87,800 1 1 buy
Mooney Kyle Owen SVP - Chief Operating Officer -$63,657.36 1 1 sell
Smith Jeffrey C. +$8,845 1 1 buy
Spring Donald J. Chief Accounting Officer -$885.63 1 1 sell

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-12-04 – 2025-12-04 4 4 +$285,116.62 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-05-06 Franklin Travis +$248,988.14 Transaction at $26.49, now +15.3%
2025-12-04 Casey Daniel Edward CROF +$89,443 Transaction at $17.89, now +70.7%
2025-12-04 Jameson Jeremy Andrew EVP - Chief Credit Officer +$99,028.62 Transaction at $17.69, now +72.6%
2026-01-28 Mooney Kyle Owen SVP - Chief Operating Officer -$63,657.36 Transaction at $22.67, now +34.7%
2025-12-04 Bingham Richard Dean +$87,800 Transaction at $17.56, now +73.9%
2025-12-04 Smith Jeffrey C. +$8,845 Transaction at $17.69, now +72.6%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MSBI on Trend Edge →