MBIN — Merchants Bancorp

✨ Hidden Gem Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates MBIN Bullish with a Setup Score of 45, net conviction 49, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score45
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction49
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Merchants Bancorp

Merchants Bancorp operates as the diversified bank holding company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Multi-family Mortgage Banking, Mortgage Warehousing, and Banking. The Multi-family Mortgage Banking segment engages in the mortgage banking, which originates, and services government sponsored mortgages, including bridge financing products to refinance, acquire, or reposition multi-family housing projects, and construction … Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$53.49
Market Cap$2.48B
Float25.4M
Shares Outstanding45.9M
P/E (TTM)10.83
Price/Sales (TTM)3.92
vs. Analyst Target+5.6% to analyst PT
Profit Margin42.47%
Operating Margin (TTM)61.07%
Revenue (TTM)$632M
Earnings Growth (YoY)146.70%
Dividend Rate0.4%
Analyst Target Price$56.50 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $401M $181M $331M $245M
2021 $462M $227M $423M $307M
2022 $602M $220M $422M $294M
2023 $1.19B $279M $519M $351M
2024 $1.45B $320M $643M $426M
2025 $1.37B $219M $564M $267M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Sep 2025 $344M $54.7M
Dec 2025 $355M $67.8M
Mar 2026 $317M $67.7M
Jun 2026 $247M $78.3M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership45.9%
Institutional Ownership99.2%
Short Float6.5%
% of All Funds Holding2.14%
Number of Funds Holding188

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$51.67Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$44.52Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$38.92Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$36.45Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$44.58Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$39.26Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$38.24Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$29.70 support 1.24x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (36 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 1.01% 1.29% 66.67% 8.27% -9.97%
1 Day 0.46% 2.18% 61.11% 15.71% -17.91%
1 Week 2.48% 4.13% 58.33% 20.66% -23.15%
2 Weeks 3.26% 3.55% 61.11% 35.16% -21.15%
1 Month 4.36% 1.99% 60.00% 36.40% -24.40%

Next earnings: October 16, 2026 (50 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan6.6%66.7%9
Feb1.6%55.6%9
Mar-1.2%55.6%9
Apr-3.5%33.3%9
May2.8%66.7%9
Jun1.8%66.7%9
Jul3.8%55.6%9
Aug1.6%75.0%8
Sep-2.2%25.0%8
Oct0.4%50.0%8
Nov9.2%100.0%9
Dec2.5%66.7%9

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.27% 53.8% 416
Tuesday -0.02% 50.1% 457
Wednesday 0.05% 50.1% 453
Thursday 0.11% 53.5% 445
Friday 0.13% 50.7% 444

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 99.2%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 45.9%

Founder-led management: Michael Petrie (Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings20
Net Value-$5.0M
Net Shares Change-165,757
% of Float-0.7%
C-Suite Filings19
Clusters Detected0

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Petrie Michael F. Chairman and CEO -$3.8M 6 7 sell
Kaercher Julia L. -$496,800 1 1 sell
Dury Michael R. CEO of Merchants Capital +$490,420 1 1 buy
Schroeter Martin A President-Warehouse Lending -$253,330 1 1 sell
Sievers Sean A. CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER +$74,610 1 1 buy

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-31 Petrie Michael F. Chairman and CEO -$496,800 Transaction at $55.20, now -3.1%
2026-05-07 Petrie Michael F. Chairman and CEO -$1.8M Transaction at $46.77, now +14.4%
2026-07-31 Kaercher Julia L. -$496,800 Transaction at $55.20, now -3.1%
2025-11-03 Dury Michael R. CEO of Merchants Capital +$490,420 Transaction at $31.64, now +69.1%
2025-09-17 Sievers Sean A. CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER +$74,610 Transaction at $24.87, now +115.1%
2026-02-27 Petrie Michael F. Chairman and CEO -$949,252.614 Transaction at $32.46, now +64.8%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for MBIN on Trend Edge →