LOB — Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.

Founder-Led

Stock analysis, trade plans, and proprietary indicators by Trend Edge.

Trend Edge Setup Score

Trend Edge rates LOB Bullish with a Setup Score of 50, net conviction 59, actionability 42. How the Setup Score works →

Total Setup Score50
Directional BiasBullish
Net Conviction59
Actionability42 (in range)

Key signals behind this score

About Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.

Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Live Oak Banking Company that provides various banking products and services in the United States. The company accepts various deposit products, including noninterest-bearing demand, as well as interest-bearing checking, money market, savings, and time deposits. It also provides commercial and industrial loans; construction and development loans; owner occupied and non-owner occup… Read full Trend Edge analysis →

Trend Edge Proprietary Indicators

Key Metrics

Current Price$39.99
Market Cap$1.89B
Float36.0M
Shares Outstanding46.3M
P/E (Forward)10.19
P/E (TTM)14.24
Price/Sales (TTM)3.58
vs. Analyst Target+15.7% to analyst PT
Profit Margin26.51%
Operating Margin (TTM)38.83%
Revenue (TTM)$526M
Earnings Growth (YoY)45.10%
Dividend Rate0.1%
Analyst Target Price$46.25 (3 analysts)

Financial History

Annual Revenue & Earnings History

YearRevenueNet IncomeGross ProfitEBITDA
2020 $378M $59.5M $244M $69.1M
2021 $506M $167M $427M $232M
2022 $509M $176M $351M $231M
2023 $777M $73.9M $382M $104M
2024 $929M $77.5M $397M $113M
2025 $1.04B $104M $503M $185M

Recent Quarterly Revenue & Net Income

QuarterRevenueNet Income
Jun 2025 $257M $23.4M
Sep 2025 $258M $26.5M
Dec 2025 $289M $44.1M
Mar 2026 $260M $30.0M

Ownership & Float

Insider Ownership22.9%
Institutional Ownership72.6%
Short Float5.3%
% of All Funds Holding2.72%
Number of Funds Holding239

Current Moving Averages

Trend Edge tracks near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular moving averages across weekly and monthly timeframes to identify trend structure at every horizon.

TimeframeSMAValueTrend Context
Weekly10-Week SMA$41.83Near-term / short-term trend
Weekly40-Week SMA$37.77Medium-term trend
Weekly80-Week SMA$34.38Cyclical trend (business cycle)
Weekly200-Week SMA$34.91Secular trend (multi-year)
Monthly10-Month SMA$37.48Near-term monthly trend
Monthly20-Month SMA$34.44Medium-term monthly trend
Monthly40-Month SMA$35.64Secular monthly trend

Volume Shelves — Support & Resistance

Trend Edge identifies volume shelves: price zones where historically elevated trading volume creates structural support or resistance. A volume shelf forms when a disproportionate share of cumulative volume was transacted at a specific price level, making it a high-conviction anchor for future price reactions.

Price LevelTypeVolume RatioAge
$31.10 support 1.05x 11 months ago

Historical Earnings Reactions (45 events)

TimeframeAvg ReturnMedianWin RateBestWorst
Gap 0.39% 0.52% 57.78% 6.95% -9.61%
1 Day 0.09% 0.56% 53.33% 16.09% -14.02%
1 Week 1.50% 1.06% 55.56% 36.40% -14.94%
2 Weeks 2.36% 2.11% 53.33% 30.67% -19.27%
1 Month 3.58% 2.80% 54.55% 41.39% -20.83%

Next earnings: October 21, 2026 (55 days away)

Seasonality & Day-of-Week Patterns

Monthly Seasonality

MonthAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Jan-3.6%45.5%11
Feb4.0%54.5%11
Mar-5.5%36.4%11
Apr1.1%54.5%11
May-1.0%54.5%11
Jun2.6%63.6%11
Jul10.7%81.8%11
Aug2.0%45.5%11
Sep-0.8%63.6%11
Oct1.7%54.5%11
Nov7.0%81.8%11
Dec0.6%45.5%11

Day-of-Week Tendencies

DayAvg ReturnWin RateSamples
Monday 0.09% 49.0% 522
Tuesday -0.03% 48.4% 574
Wednesday 0.06% 46.8% 571
Thursday 0.03% 49.9% 561
Friday 0.20% 49.7% 559

Top Institutional Holders

Institutional holder breakdown coming soon.

Total institutional ownership: 72.6%

Insider Transactions — Smart Summary

Total insider ownership: 22.9%

Founder-led management: James S. (Chip) Mahan III (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer), Lee Williams III (Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors)

12-Month Insider Activity Summary

Total Filings36
Net Value-$16.1M
Net Shares Change-442,022
% of Float-1.2%
C-Suite Filings30
Clusters Detected4

Key Insiders

NameTitleNet ValueFilingsActivity
Derraik Renato Chief Info./Digital Off., Bank -$2.8M 1 1 sell
Moroz Mark Michael Chief Banking Officer -$256,669.7 1 1 sell
LUCHT DAVID G -$215,117.3 2 2 sell
Spencer Courtney Chief Experience Officer -$194,806.301 2 2 sell
Phifer Walter J Chief Financial Officer -$172,379.096 1 1 sell
Seward Gregory W General Counsel -$110,100 1 1 sell
Stasiowska Ewa Maria Chief Risk Officer +$99,999.441 1 1 buy
Bradford Tonya Williams +$30,240 1 1 buy

Transaction Clusters

PeriodFilingsInsidersNet ValueSeniority
2025-11-20 – 2025-12-01 3 3 -$543,384.84 2 C-suite
2026-01-28 – 2026-02-06 3 3 -$909,161.059 3 C-suite
2026-03-04 – 2026-03-13 4 3 -$1.7M 4 C-suite
2026-07-29 – 2026-08-05 5 4 -$840,370.081 2 C-suite

Significant Filings

DateInsiderTitleNet ValuePrice After
2026-07-29 Moroz Mark Michael Chief Banking Officer -$256,669.7 Transaction at $42.08, now -5.0%
2026-08-05 LUCHT DAVID G -$88,721 Transaction at $44.36, now -9.9%
2026-07-29 LUCHT DAVID G -$126,396.3 Transaction at $42.13, now -5.1%
2026-08-05 Spencer Courtney Chief Experience Officer -$6,717.801 Transaction at $43.68, now -8.4%
2026-01-28 Stasiowska Ewa Maria Chief Risk Officer +$99,999.441 Transaction at $38.53, now +3.8%
2026-05-04 Derraik Renato Chief Info./Digital Off., Bank -$2.8M Transaction at $37.83, now +5.7%

View full insider transaction history on Trend Edge →

AI Consult Analysis

Trend Edge's AI Consult feature delivers a comprehensive, multi-layer trade plan for Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) powered by Claude Opus — Anthropic's most capable AI model. The analysis covers five layers: technical analysis (near-term, medium-term, cyclical, and secular trend, momentum, volume shelf support and resistance, breakout and breakdown signals), qualitative analysis (business model, competitive moat, sector dynamics), insider sentiment (buy and sell signals from executive and director transactions), share stats analysis (institutional accumulation, fund positioning, short float squeeze potential), and fundamental analysis (valuation, revenue growth, profit margin, earnings quality).

AI Consult synthesizes all five layers into a single bullish or bearish thesis with explicit entry, exit, stop loss, and take profit levels — giving you a complete, AI-powered trade plan with defined risk/reward. Whether you are building a long position, initiating a short, or looking for a reversal setup, AI Consult identifies the highest-probability signal from the current trend.

Get the full AI Consult analysis for LOB on Trend Edge →